52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election explained

Election Name:52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election
Country:Newfoundland and Labrador
Type:Parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2021 Newfoundland and Labrador general election
Previous Year:2021
Outgoing Members:50th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador
Election Date:On or before 24 November 2025
Next Election:53rd Newfoundland and Labrador general election
Next Year:53rd
Seats For Election:All 40 seats in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly
Majority Seats:21
Opinion Polls:
  1. Opinion polls
Leader1:Andrew Furey
Leaders Seat1:Humber-Gros Morne
Last Election1:22 seats, 48.24%
Leader2:Tony Wakeham
Leaders Seat2:Stephenville-Port au Port
Last Election2:13 seats, 38.80%
Leader3:Jim Dinn
Leader Since3:19 October 2021
Leaders Seat3:St. John's Centre
Last Election3:2 seats, 8.02%
Premier
Before Election:Andrew Furey
Seats Before1:21
Seats Before2:14
Seats Before3:2

The 52nd Newfoundland and Labrador general election will take place on or before 24 November 2025 to elect members to the 51st General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Current party standings

Standings in the 50th General Assembly[1]
AffiliationLeaderHouse members
2021 election resultsCurrent standings
Andrew Furey2221
Tony Wakeham1314
22
32

Timeline

Changes in MHAs/seats held

Changes in seats held (2021–)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Torngat Mountains25 October 2021Lela EvansResignation from PC caucus[19]
7 March 2022Joined the NDP caucus[20] [21]
16 July 2024Re-joined the PC caucus[22]
Lake Melville12 September 2022Perry TrimperJoined the Liberal caucus[23]
Conception Bay East-Bell Island29 December 2023David BrazilResigned from House of Assembly[24] January 30, 2024Fred Hutton
Fogo Island-Cape Freels22 January 2024Death of incumbent[25] April 15, 2024Jim McKenna
Baie Verte-Green Bay1 March 2024Brian WarrResigned from House of Assembly[26] May 27, 2024Lin Paddock
Waterford Valley5 July 2024Tom OsborneResigned from House of Assembly[27] August 22, 2024

Opinion polls

Polling firmDates conductedLinkLiberalPCNDPOthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Narrative Research[28] 38%41%19%2%±6.8%208Telephone3%
Narrative Research[29] 43%33%23%1%±5.2%350Telephone10%
Narrative Research[30] 44%38%16%3%±5.0%388Telephone6%
14 Oct 2023Tony Wakeham is elected leader of the PCs.[31]
Abacus Data[32] 40%38%21%1%±4.5%341Online2%
Narrative Research[33] 40%37%23%0%±5.2%350Telephone3%
Narrative Research[34] 50%31%17%2%±5.2%350Telephone19%
28 Mar 2023Jim Dinn is acclaimed permanent NDP leader.
Narrative Research[35] 46%36%17%0%±5.2%350Telephone10%
Narrative Research[36] 47%34%16%3%±4.2%535Telephone13%
Narrative Research[37] 40%42%16%1%±6.0%260Telephone2%
Angus Reid[38] 36%45%12%6%±7.0%201Online9%
Narrative Research[39] 48%32%17%3%±5.9%275Telephone16%
Angus Reid[40] 43%44%10%4%±7.0%196Online1%
Narrative Research[41] 49%32%15%3%±5.2%350Telephone17%
Angus Reid[42] 37%44%15%4%±8.0%155Online7%
MQO Research[43] 47%31%18%4%±5.5%400Telephone16%
Narrative Research[44] 48%27%23%2%±3.5%800Telephone21%
19 Oct 2021Alison Coffin resigns as leader of the NDP; Jim Dinn becomes interim leader.
Angus Reid[45] 39%39%17%5%N/A203Onlinedata-sort-value="0" Tie
Narrative Research[46] 53%28%18%1%±4.9%400Telephone25%
MQO Research[47] 56%26%15%2%±4.9%400Telephone30%
Angus Reid[48] 50%39%8%2%±2.0%153Online11%
Narrative Research[49] 54%30%14%2%±3.5%800Telephone24%
8 Apr 2021Andrew Furey and his cabinet sworn in.[50]
31 Mar 2021Ches Crosbie resigns as leader of the PCs; David Brazil becomes interim leader.[51]
2021 general election25 Mar 2021HTML48.24%38.80%8.02%4.93%9.44%
Polling firmDates conductedLinkOthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
LiberalPCNDP

References

Opinion poll sources

Notes and References

  1. Web site: House of Assembly - NL - Members. 4 August 2021. Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. 8 August 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210808074617/https://www.assembly.nl.ca/Members/members.aspx. live.
  2. News: Staff. CBC News. 31 March 2021. PC Leader Ches Crobie stepping down as head of party. CBC News. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. 2 November 2021. 1 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211101204628/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ches-crosbie-mar-31-1.5971034. live.
  3. News: Smellie. Sarah. 31 March 2021. N.L. Tory leader Ches Crosbie delivers parting shot as he steps down after loss. Toronto Star. 2 November 2021. 1 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211101114946/https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/03/31/nl-tory-leader-ches-crosbie-steps-down-after-losing-seat-in-provincial-election.html. live.
  4. News: Staff. The Canadian Press. 19 October 2021. Alison Coffin steps down as leader of Newfoundland and Labrador's New Democrats. CTV News. CTV Television Network. 19 October 2021. 19 October 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211019204340/https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/alison-coffin-steps-down-as-leader-of-newfoundland-and-labrador-s-new-democrats-1.5629662. live.
  5. Web site: Surprise N.L. cabinet shuffle sees John Haggie, Tom Osborne switch roles. CBC News. Malone. Mullin. Alex. Kennedy. 6 July 2022. 6 July 2022. 6 July 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220706183107/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-cabinet-shuffle-1.6511550. live.
  6. Web site: Jim Dinn removes 'interim' tag after being acclaimed NDP leader. CBC News. 28 March 2023. 12 April 2023. 28 March 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230328151048/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/jim-dinn-accalimed-leader-ndp-nl-1.6793065. live.
  7. https://vocm.com/2023/06/14/furey-shuffles-cabinet-in-wake-of-derrick-braggs-cancer-diagnosis/ Furey Shuffles Cabinet in Wake of Derrick Bragg’s Cancer Diagnosis
  8. News: Tony Wakeham wins PC leadership, setting stage for next election . Oct 14, 2023 . CBC News . Oct 14, 2023 . 14 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231014203337/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tory-leadership-newfoundland-labrador-1.6995742 . live .
  9. Web site: David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December. Nov 10, 2023. Sarah. Antle. CBC News. Nov 10, 2023. 11 November 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231111025255/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/pc-mha-daavid-brazil-stepping-down-1.7025627. live.
  10. News: Derrick Bragg, Cabinet Minister Who Devoted His Life to Public Service, Passes Away . 22 January 2024 . VOCM . 22 January 2024.
  11. Web site: Conception Bay East-Bell Island By-Election Moved to Tuesday .
  12. Web site: January 30, 2024 . Fred Hutton Elected MHA for Conception Bay East-Bell Island. VOCM.
  13. Web site: Feb 29, 2024 . Fred Hutton Sworn In as Minister of Housing . VOCM.
  14. Web site: Fogo Island-Cape Freels swings blue with PC candidate Jim McKenna's win . CBC News . 16 April 2024.
  15. Web site: Smith . Greg . Paddock, PCs Win Baie Verte – Green Bay By-Election . 2024-05-28 . VOCM . en.
  16. Web site: 2024-07-16 . Labrador MHA Lela Evans leaving the NDP to return to PC caucus . 2024-07-16 . Yahoo News . en-GB.
  17. https://vocm.com/2024/07/19/key-portfolios-shift-hands-in-newfoundland-cabinet-shake-up/ Key Portfolios Shift Hands in Newfoundland Cabinet Shake-Up
  18. News: Head . Jenna . 3 candidates ready to campaign in Waterford Valley byelection . 2 August 2024 . . 1 August 2024.
  19. News: Staff. CBC News. 25 October 2021. Lela Evans, MHA for Labrador's Torngat Mountains district, leaving PC Party. CBC News. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. 2 November 2021. 1 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211101113814/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/lela-evans-leaving-pc-party-1.6223802. live.
  20. News: Smith . Greg . Former PC MHA Joins NDP . 8 March 2022 . VOCM . en . 7 March 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220307175405/https://vocm.com/2022/03/07/lela-ndp/ . live .
  21. News: Former PC MHA Lela Evans joins NDP caucus . 8 March 2022 . CBC News . 7 March 2022 . 8 March 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220308014928/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/lela-evans-ndp-nl-1.6375691 . live .
  22. Web site: 2024-07-16 . Labrador MHA Lela Evans leaving the NDP to return to PC caucus . 2024-07-16 . Yahoo News . en-GB.
  23. Web site: September 12, 2022 . Independent MHA Perry Trimper rejoins Liberal caucus .
  24. Web site: David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December .
  25. Web site: January 22, 2024 . Liberal MHA and cabinet minister Derrick Bragg dead at 59 .
  26. Web site: Roberts . Terry . February 26, 2024 . It's back to building supplies for Brian Warr as Liberal MHA returns to his business roots . March 22, 2024 . CBC.
  27. Web site: Kennedy . Alex . July 24, 2024 . Waterford Valley voters headed to the polls in late August for byelection . CBC News.
  28. Web site: NL: With a gain in support for the PCs, the voter support for the PCs and Liberals is very close.. Narrative Research . 6 June 2024 . 6 June 2024.
  29. Web site: NL: The Liberals lead in terms of voter support.. Narrative Research . 28 February 2024 . 5 March 2024.
  30. Web site: NL: The Liberals have a slight lead over the PCs in terms of voter support. . Narrative Research . 5 December 2023 . 5 December 2023.
  31. Web site: Archived copy . 14 October 2023 . 14 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231014203337/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tory-leadership-newfoundland-labrador-1.6995742 . live .
  32. Web site: Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals and PCs are statistically tied as the cost of living and healthcare are in focus . . 2 October 2023 . 2 October 2023 . 13 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231013072236/https://abacusdata.ca/newfoundland-and-labrador-liberals-and-pcs-are-statistically-tied-as-the-cost-of-living-and-healthcare-are-in-focus/ . live .
  33. Web site: NL: While satisfaction with the Provincial Government remains stable in NL, the Liberals and PCs share similar levels of voter support. . Narrative Research . 24 August 2023 . 24 August 2023 . 24 August 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230824142110/https://narrativeresearch.ca/nl-while-satisfaction-with-the-provincial-government-remains-stable-in-nl-the-liberals-and-pcs-share-similar-levels-of-voter-support/ . live .
  34. Web site: Liberals have a stronger lead in terms of voter support . Narrative Research . 24 May 2023 . 17 December 2023 .
  35. Web site: NL: Voting intentions have remained stable, with Liberals continuing to lead in terms of voter support . Narrative Research . 7 March 2023 . 7 March 2023 . 7 March 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230307190330/https://narrativeresearch.ca/voting-intentions-have-remained-stable-with-liberals-continuing-to-lead-in-terms-of-voter-support/ . live .
  36. Web site: Voting intentions have shifted and the Liberals now lead in terms of voter support . Narrative Research . 1 December 2022 . 1 December 2022 . 1 December 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221201191826/https://narrativeresearch.ca/voting-intentions-have-shifted-and-the-liberals-now-lead-in-terms-of-voter-support/ . live .
  37. Web site: Voting intentions have shifted this quarter to reflect a tighter race between the PCs and Liberals with the Liberals no longer leading . Narrative Research . 30 August 2022 . 30 August 2022 . 30 August 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220830172518/https://narrativeresearch.ca/voting-intentions-have-shifted-this-quarter-to-reflect-a-tighter-race-between-the-pcs-and-liberals-with-the-liberals-no-longer-leading/ . live .
  38. Web site: Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments . Angus Reid . July 2022 . 14 July 2022 . 14 July 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220714005754/https://angusreid.org/atlantic-canada-maritime-politics-inflation-health-care/ . live .
  39. Web site: Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government has declined over the past three months with residents now equally likely to be dissatisfied as satisfied . Narrative Research . 26 May 2022 . 26 May 2022 . 26 May 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220526140808/https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-nl-premier-andrew-fureys-government-has-declined-over-the-past-three-months-with-residents-now-equally-likely-to-be-dissatisfied-as-satisfied/ . live .
  40. Web site: Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management . Angus Reid . March 2022 . 31 March 2022 . 31 March 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220331111235/https://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-march-2022/ . live .
  41. Web site: Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government remains stable with Fall 2021. . Narrative Research . 3 March 2022 . 3 March 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220303162921/https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-nl-premier-andrew-fureys-government-remains-stable-with-fall-2021-%EF%BF%BC/ . live .
  42. Web site: 20 January 2022. Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec. 21 January 2022. Angus Reid Institute. en-US. 20 January 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220120152133/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf. live.
  43. Web site: Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador . MQO Research . December 2021 . 7 January 2022 . 10 December 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211210204416/https://mqoresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Atlantic-Matters-NL-Provincial-Results-Q4-2021.pdf . live .
  44. Web site: Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government declines through 2021 . Narrative Research . https://web.archive.org/web/20211201001809/https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/21-4-NL-Provincial-Polling.pdf . 1 December 2021 . 29 November 2021.
  45. Web site: Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments . Angus Reid . 27 October 2021 . 3 November 2021 . 27 October 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211027120428/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.27_Provincial_Spotlight.pdf . live .
  46. Web site: Satisfaction with premier Andrew Furey's government remains strong. . Narrative Research . 22 September 2021 . 23 September 2021 . 1 December 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211201003146/https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/21-3-NL-Provincial-Polling.pdf . dead .
  47. Web site: Spring/Summer 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador . MQO Research . July 2021 . 7 January 2022 . 7 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220107173601/https://mqoresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Atlantic-Matters-NL-Provincial-Results-Q2-2021.pdf . live .
  48. Web site: Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management . Angus Reid . 9 June 2021 . 5 August 2021 . 10 June 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210610031254/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021.06.08_Premiers_June.pdf . live .
  49. Web site: Satisfaction with the performance of the NL provincial government has declined, but remains strong following the recent election. . Narrative Research . 3 June 2021 . 7 January 2022 . 1 December 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211201003139/https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/21-2-NL-News-Release-FINAL.pdf . dead .
  50. News: Smellie. Sarah. 8 April 2021. Andrew Furey sworn in as Newfoundland and Labrador premier after tumultuous election. CTV News. 4 August 2021. 5 August 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210805041900/https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/andrew-furey-sworn-in-as-newfoundland-and-labrador-premier-after-tumultuous-election-1.5379223. live.
  51. CBCMarkQuinn. Quinn. Mark. Ches Crosbie stepping down #nlpoli. 1377268461576028163. 4 August 2021.

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