44th Manitoba general election explained

Election Name:44th Manitoba general election
Country:Manitoba
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2023 Manitoba general election
Previous Year:2023
Election Date:On or before October 5, 2027
Next Election:45th Manitoba general election
Next Year:45th
Seats For Election:57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Leader Since1:September 16, 2017
Leaders Seat1:Fort Rouge
Last Election1:34 seats, 45.63%
Seats Before1:35
Seats1:34
Leader2:Wayne Ewasko (interim)
Leader Since2:January 18, 2024
Leaders Seat2:Lac du Bonnet
Seats Before2:21
Seats2:21
Seats Needed2: 8
Image3: LIB
Image3 Size:x150px
Leader3:Cindy Lamoureux (interim)
Leader Since3:October 17, 2023
Leaders Seat3:Tyndall Park
Last Election3:1 seat, 10.63%
Seats Before3:1
Seats Needed3: 28
Premier
Before Election:Wab Kinew
Before Party:New Democratic
Outgoing Members:outgoing members

The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027 to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

Standings in the 43rd Legislature of Manitoba
AffiliationAssembly members
2023 election resultsCurrent3435222111
Total members5757
Total seats5757

Timeline

2023

2024

Opinion polling

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firmDates conductedSourceNDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreenOthersMargin Sample sizePolling methodLead
Probe Research-, 2024[6] [7] 51%38%6%1%1%1%3.1%1,000mixed13%
Probe Research-18, 2024[8] [9] 49%37%8%1%2%2%3.1%1,000mixed12%
Probe Research-, 2023[10] [11] 51%38%7%1%2%1%3.1%1,000mixed13%
2023 general electiondata-sort-value="2023-10-03 October 3, 2023[12] 45.63%41.86%10.63%0.77%0.74%0.37%3.77%
Polling firmDates conductedSourceOthersMargin Sample sizePolling methodLead
NDPPCLiberalKeystoneGreen

References

Opinion poll sources

Notes and References

  1. Elections Act. CCSM. E30. 49.1. 2. http://web2.gov.mb.ca/laws/statutes/ccsm/e030e.php#49 .
  2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. News: Hoye . Bryce . Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history . 3 October 2023 . CBC News . 3 October 2023.
  4. News: The Canadian Press . Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader . 17 October 2023 . CBC News . 17 October 2023.
  5. News: Petz . Sarah . Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier . 18 October 2023 . CBC News . 18 October 2023.
  6. Web site: NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus) . Probe Research . 14 June 2024 . 14 June 2024.
  7. Web site: Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo . Probe Research . 14 June 2024.
  8. Web site: March 2024 Manitoba Politics . Probe Research . 26 March 2024 . 28 March 2024.
  9. Web site: Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo . Probe Research . 28 March 2024.
  10. Web site: Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey . Probe Research . 1 December 2023 . 15 December 2023.
  11. Web site: Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf . Probe Research . 28 March 2024.
  12. https://results.electionsmanitoba.ca/election-map/en Official Results