2023 Manitoba general election explained
Election Name: | 2023 Manitoba general election |
Country: | Manitoba |
Type: | parliamentary |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2019 Manitoba general election |
Previous Year: | 2019 |
Election Date: | October 3, 2023 |
Next Election: | 44th Manitoba general election |
Next Year: | 44th |
Seats For Election: | 57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority |
Turnout: | 55.29% |
Leader Since1: | September 16, 2017 |
Leaders Seat1: | Fort Rouge |
Last Election1: | 18 seats, 31.38% |
Seats Before1: | 18 |
Seats1: | 34 |
Seat Change1: | 16 |
Popular Vote1: | 221,695 |
Percentage1: | 45.63% |
Swing1: | 14.25pp |
Leader2: | Heather Stefanson |
Leader Since2: | October 30, 2021 |
Leaders Seat2: | Tuxedo |
Seats Before2: | 35 |
Seats2: | 22 |
Seat Change2: | 13 |
Popular Vote2: | 203,350 |
Percentage2: | 41.86% |
Swing2: | 5.21pp |
Image3 Size: | x150px |
Leader3: | Dougald Lamont |
Leaders Seat3: | St. Boniface (lost re-election) |
Last Election3: | 3 seats, 14.48% |
Seats Before3: | 3 |
Seats3: | 1 |
Seat Change3: | 2 |
Popular Vote3: | 51,634 |
Percentage3: | 10.63% |
Swing3: | 3.85pp |
Map Size: | 400px |
Premier |
Before Election: | Heather Stefanson |
Before Party: | Progressive Conservative |
Posttitle: | Premier after election |
After Election: | Wab Kinew |
After Party: | New Democratic |
Elected Members: | elected members |
Outgoing Members: | outgoing members |
The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.
Background
Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.
On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3] [4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.
Campaign
Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education.[5] [6] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget.[8] [9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.
The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected.[13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[14]
During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search.[15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[16]
Other campaign issues included crime,[17] agriculture[18] and affordable housing.[19]
Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.[21]
Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)Candidates | align="center" | NDP | align="center" | PC | align="center" | Lib | align="center" | Grn | style="color: white" align="center" | KP | align="center" | Comm | align="center" | Ind | Total |
---|
2 | 4 | 4 | | | | | | 8 |
3 | 34 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 1 | | | 102 |
4 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 64 |
5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | | 3 | | 15 |
Total | 57 | 57 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 189 | |
Timeline
2021
- July 15: Eileen Clarke Resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
- July 15 Blaine Pedersen Resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development, he announces he will not seek Re-election.
- August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek Re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
- September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
- September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is Chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to Become its Interim Leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is Appointed as the Deputy Premier.
- October 4: Brian Pallister Resigns as the MLA For Fort Whyte, Triggering a By-Election.
- October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party
- November 2: Kelvin Goertzen Resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
- November 2: Heather Stefanson is Sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first Woman to hold the Position.
- December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) Dies in Office, triggering a By-election.
- December 30: Ron Schuler Removed From Cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as Acting Minister of Infrastructure
2022
- January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her Cabinet
- March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte By-Election replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives held the seat Narrowly.
- June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
- June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is Named Acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister Responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
- June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
- June 17: Scott Fielding Resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
- October 4: Ralph Eichler Announces He Will not seek Re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
- December 16: Ian Wishart Announces He will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.
2023
- January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek Reelection as MLA for Kildonan River East.
- January 27: Cameron Friesen announces his resignation as finance minister and MLA.
- June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek reelection as MLA for Fort Richmond
Legislature summary
[22] |- !rowspan="2" colspan="2"|Party[23] !rowspan="2"|Leader!rowspan="2"|
Candidates!colspan="5"|Seats!colspan="4"|Popular vote|-!
2019!Dissolution!Elected!%!+/–!Votes!%!Change
(
pp)|align=left|
Wab Kinew|– |57||18 ||18 ||34 ||59.65 ||+16 ||221,695 ||45.63 ||+14.25|align=left|
Heather Stefanson|– |57||36 |||35|| 22||38.60 ||–14 ||203,350 ||41.86 ||−5.21|align=left|
Dougald Lamont|– |49||3 ||3 ||1 ||1.75 ||–2 ||51,634 ||10.63 ||−3.85|align=left|
Keystone|align=left|Kevin Friesen|5 ||– ||–||–||–||− ||3,727 ||0.77 ||New|align=left||– |13 ||– ||–||–||– ||− ||3,584 ||0.74 ||−5.63|align=left|Andrew Taylor|5 ||– ||– ||–||–||− ||461 ||0.09 ||+0.04|- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Independents |3||– ||– || –||–||− ||1,383 ||0.28 ||+0.10|- | colspan="4" style="text-align:left;"|Vacant| |1|-| colspan="5" ||-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Valid votes| || || ||||||||485,834 ||99.31|-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Blank and invalid votes| || || ||||||||3,374 ||0.69|-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|
Total|189 ||
57 ||
57 ||–||||||489,208 ||100|-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Registered voters/turnout| || || ||||||||884,864 ||55.29|}
Incumbents not running for re-election
Candidates
See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election.
The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[36] [37] [38]
Marginal seats
Previous marginal seats
Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%
New marginal seats
Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.
Results
Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election.[39] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital.[40] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings.[41] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.[42]
Synopsis of results by riding
2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[43] |
---|
Riding[44] | 2019 | Winning party | Turnout [45] | Votes |
---|
Party | Share | Margin | Comm | Grn | | KP | Lib | NDP | PC | Rejected | Declined |
---|
| | | | | | |
---|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
---|
Agassiz | | | PC | | | PC | 63.85% | 2,966 | 53.35% | | | | 694 | 311 | 1553 | 4519 | 18 | 36 |
Assiniboia | | | PC | | | NDP | 50.02% | 916 | 55.70% | | | | | 913 | 4722 | 3806 | 15 | 28 |
Borderland | | | PC | | | PC | 72.66% | 3,558 | 50.45% | | | | | 764 | 921 | 4479 | 4 | 18 |
Brandon East | | | PC | | | NDP | 55.64% | 1,067 | 46.99% | | | | | 305 | 3758 | 2691 | 6 | 29 |
Brandon West | | | PC | | | PC | 48.75% | 89 | 51.68% | | 284 | | | | 3725 | 3814 | 10 | 39 |
Burrows | | | NDP | | | NDP | 46.04% | 958 | 44.64% | | | | | 2074 | 3032 | 1479 | 6 | 32 |
Concordia | | | NDP | | | NDP | 64.52% | 2,387 | 44.03% | | | | | 481 | 4235 | 1848 | 12 | 36 |
Dauphin | | | PC | | | NDP | 52.06% | 386 | 60.30% | | | | | | 4887 | 4501 | 45 | 63 |
Dawson Trail | | | PC | | | PC | 50.70% | 543 | 56.86% | | 416 | | | | 4049 | 4592 | 12 | 57 |
Elmwood | | | NDP | | | NDP | 62.21% | 2,745 | 49.32% | 52 | 304 | | | 452 | 4933 | 2188 | 16 | 56 |
Flin Flon | | | NDP | | | NDP | 76.25% | 2,032 | 44.17% | | | | | | 2951 | 919 | 12 | 19 |
Fort Garry | | | NDP | | | NDP | 58.82% | 2,914 | 58.75% | | 237 | | | 1082 | 5319 | 2405 | 14 | 35 |
Fort Richmond | | | PC | | | NDP | 54.45% | 1,576 | 62.07% | | | | | 848 | 4455 | 2879 | 12 | 34 |
Fort Rouge | | | NDP | | | NDP | 70.57% | 5,195 | 58.04% | 102 | | | | 1152 | 6761 | 1566 | 6 | 33 |
Fort Whyte | | | PC | | | PC | 47.87% | 1,229 | 64.37% | | | | | 4213 | 1714 | 5442 | 12 | 33 |
Interlake-Gimli | | | PC | | | PC | 49.59% | 683 | 65.04% | | | | 393 | 374 | 4460 | 5143 | 13 | 66 |
Keewatinook | | | NDP | | | NDP | 59.28% | 762 | 39.14% | | | | | 192 | 1820 | 1058 | 20 | 34 |
Kildonan-River East | | | PC | | | NDP | 49.26% | 729 | 63.18% | | | | | 896 | 5574 | 4845 | 9 | 53 |
Kirkfield Park | | | PC | | | NDP | 44.55% | 661 | 63.76% | | 205 | | | 1696 | 5067 | 4406 | 13 | 29 |
La Verendrye | | | PC | | | PC | 61.02% | 3,032 | 55.54% | | | | 736 | 640 | 1554 | 4586 | 5 | 35 |
Lac du Bonnet | | | PC | | | PC | 58.51% | 2,223 | 60.77% | | 573 | | | | 3447 | 5670 | 5 | 80 |
Lagimodière | | | PC | | | NDP | 46.24% | 112 | 64.05% | | | | | 1041 | 5711 | 5599 | 9 | 45 |
Lakeside | | | PC | | | PC | 61.68% | 3,406 | 60.98% | | | | | 1101 | 2682 | 6088 | 11 | 59 |
McPhillips | | | PC | | | NDP | 47.30% | 325 | 54.61% | | | | | 886 | 4905 | 4580 | 23 | 70 |
Midland | | | PC | | | PC | 69.38% | 4,216 | 56.95% | | | | | 737 | 2011 | 6227 | 25 | 50 |
Morden-Winkler | | | PC | | | PC | 73.47% | 3,535 | 44.32% | | | | | 254 | 1600 | 5135 | 6 | 41 |
Notre Dame | | | NDP | | | NDP | 75.58% | 3,100 | 37.88% | 82 | 105 | | | 319 | 3832 | 732 | 8 | 13 |
Point Douglas | | | NDP | | | NDP | 73.31% | 2,625 | 32.76% | | | | | 484 | 3367 | 742 | 6 | 19 |
Portage la Prairie | | | PC | | | PC | 59.61% | 1,898 | 46.77% | | 367 | | | 301 | 1918 | 3816 | 21 | 35 |
Radisson | | | PC | | | NDP | 52.31% | 1,147 | 57.65% | | | | | 621 | 5954 | 4807 | 15 | 39 |
Red River North | | | PC | | | PC | 60.35% | 2,033 | 60.47% | | | | | | 3893 | 5926 | 43 | 100 |
Riding Mountain | | | PC | | | PC | 63.02% | 2,749 | 57.42% | | | | | 417 | 2895 | 5644 | 22 | 54 |
Riel | | | PC | | | NDP | 54.65% | 1,882 | 65.70% | | | | | 834 | 6160 | 4278 | 26 | 62 |
River Heights | | | Lib | | | NDP | 44.21% | 643 | 67.59% | | 158 | | | 4404 | 5047 | 1807 | 8 | 34 |
Roblin | | | PC | | | PC | 49.72% | 1,120 | 62.54% | | | | | 1189 | 4968 | 6088 | 12 | 63 |
Rossmere | | | PC | | | NDP | 50.74% | 801 | 60.42% | | 181 | | | 478 | 4863 | 4062 | 27 | 49 |
Seine River | | | PC | | | NDP | 52.08% | 1,407 | 63.64% | | | 131 | | 846 | 5381 | 3974 | 7 | 30 |
Selkirk | | | PC | | | PC | 52.49% | 470 | 56.29% | | | | | | 4493 | 4963 | 39 | 141 |
Southdale | | | PC | | | NDP | 48.48% | 1,647 | 64.72% | | | 135 | | 1861 | 5569 | 3922 | 7 | 33 |
Springfield-Ritchot | | | PC | | | PC | 54.89% | 1,925 | 58.30% | | | | | 900 | 3827 | 5752 | 14 | 52 |
Spruce Woods | | | PC | | | PC | 61.81% | 3,050 | 56.54% | | | | | 1145 | 1936 | 4986 | 22 | 41 |
St. Boniface | | | Lib | | | NDP | 53.38% | 2,172 | 60.06% | 73 | | | | 3413 | 5585 | 1391 | 9 | 52 |
St. James | | | NDP | | | NDP | 64.82% | 3,122 | 54.68% | | | | | 631 | 5448 | 2326 | 14 | 24 |
St. Johns | | | NDP | | | NDP | 60.76% | 3,161 | 46.98% | | | 1117 | | 535 | 4262 | 1101 | 7 | 26 |
St. Vital | | | NDP | | | NDP | 61.15% | 2,751 | 56.88% | | | | | 823 | 5288 | 2537 | 13 | 35 |
Steinbach | | | PC | | | PC | 74.37% | 4,647 | 48.14% | | | | | 801 | 1221 | 5868 | 118 | 76 |
Swan River | | | PC | | | PC | 62.91% | 2,368 | 57.90% | | | | 397 | | 2433 | 4801 | 7 | 126 |
The Maples | | | NDP | | | NDP | 56.13% | 2,325 | 50.62% | | | | | 1472 | 3905 | 1580 | 4 | 46 |
The Pas-Kameesak | | | NDP | | | NDP | 67.18% | 2,016 | 53.52% | | | | | 215 | 3522 | 1506 | 8 | 12 |
Thompson | | | NDP | | | NDP | 68.28% | 1,673 | 36.10% | | | | | 127 | 2887 | 1214 | 8 | 11 |
Transcona | | | NDP | | | NDP | 58.50% | 2,063 | 51.40% | | | | | 541 | 5235 | 3172 | 10 | 36 |
Turtle Mountain | | | PC | | | PC | 55.05% | 2,813 | 55.64% | | | | 1507 | 425 | 1993 | 4806 | 21 | 35 |
Tuxedo | | | PC | | | PC | 40.21% | 268 | 59.86% | | | | | 2201 | 3700 | 3968 | 5 | 35 |
Tyndall Park | | | Lib | | | Lib | 54.99% | 2,122 | 49.75% | | | | | 4030 | 1908 | 1390 | 2 | 29 |
Union Station | | | NDP | | | NDP | 70.78% | 2,797 | 42.21% | | | | | 616 | 3714 | 917 | 23 | 34 |
Waverley | | | PC | | | NDP | 44.10% | 115 | 53.97% | | 201 | | | 1001 | 4063 | 3948 | 4 | 18 |
Wolseley | | | NDP | | | NDP | 75.31% | 5,721 | 53.77% | 152 | 553 | | | 592 | 6582 | 861 | 13 | 22 | |
= open seat
= turnout is above provincial average
= winning candidate was in previous Legislature
= other incumbents renominated
Results by riding
Analysis
Party candidates in 2nd placeParty in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total |
---|
NDP | PC | Lib | Ind |
---|
| 30 | 3 | 1 | 34 |
21 | | 1 | | 22 |
1 | | | | 1 |
Total | 22 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 57 | |
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by partyParties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
---|
| 34 | 22 | 1 | | |
| 22 | 30 | 5 | | |
| 1 | 4 | 38 | 6 | |
| | 1 | | 2 | |
| | | 5 | | |
| | | 4 | 9 | |
| | | | 2 | 3 | |
Source !!colspan="4"Party |
align="center" | NDP | align="center" | PC | align="center" | Lib | Total |
---|
Seats retained | Incumbents returned | 18 | 12 | 1 | 31 |
Open seats held | | 10 | | 10 |
Seats changing hands | Incumbents defeated | 12 | | | 12 |
Open seats gained | 4 | | | 4 |
Total | 34 | 22 | 1 | 57 | |
Aftermath
Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[46] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.
Seats changing hands
Defeated MLAs
Open seats
Opinion polls
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election |
---|
Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Margin | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
---|
| | | |
---|
Forum Research | , 2023 | [47] | 41.3% | 44.7% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 910 | IVR | 3.4% |
Research Co. | –Oct 2, 2023 | [48] | 39% | 48% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 600 | Online | 9% |
Mainstreet Research | –Oct 1, 2023 | [49] | 41% | 47% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 3.7% | 698 | Smart IVR | 6% |
Sovereign North Strategies | | [50] | 42.5% | 39.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | N/A | 3.9% | 852 | Telephone | 3.1% |
Angus Reid | | [51] | 41% | 47% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 990 | Online | 6% |
Probe Research | | [52] | 38% | 49% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11% |
Research Co. | | [53] | 39% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 600 | Online | 2% |
Counsel Public Affairs | | [54] | 39% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 505 | Online | 5% |
Mainstreet Research | | [55] | 43% | 42% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 601 | Smart IVR | 1% |
Mainstreet Research | | [56] | 42% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 597 | Smart IVR | 4% |
Probe Research | | [57] | 41% | 41% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | Tie |
Angus Reid | | [58] | 39% | 44% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 515 | Online | 5% |
| | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba |
Probe Research | | [59] | 38% | 44% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 6% |
Mainstreet Research | | [60] | 36.2% | 41.5% | 14.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 514 | Smart IVR | 5.3% |
Probe Research | | [61] | 35% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone/Online | 11% |
Probe Research | | [62] | 37% | 44% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% |
Angus Reid | | [63] | 38% | 40% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 468 | Online | 2% |
Probe Research | | [64] | 35% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
Probe Research | | [65] | 34% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
Angus Reid | | [66] [67] | 39% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 475 | Online | 1% |
Angus Reid | | [68] | 36% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 407 | Online | 6% |
Probe Research | | [69] | 37% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 5% |
| | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party |
Innovative Research | | [70] | 41% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 3% | N/A | 678 | Online | 9% |
Angus Reid | | [71] | 38% | 43% | 11% | 4% | 5% | N/A | 435 | Online | 5% |
Probe Research | | [72] | 35% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 8% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% |
Probe Research | | [73] | 29% | 47% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 18% |
Angus Reid | | [74] | 39% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 4.0% | 504 | Online | 3% |
Probe Research | | [75] | 36% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% |
Probe Research | | [76] | 37% | 41% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 4% |
Angus Reid | | [77] | 39% | 40% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 4.8% | 420 | Online | 1% |
Probe Research | | [78] | 43% | 34% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 9% |
EKOS | data-sort-value="2020-08-26" | Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 | [79] | 44% | 31% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 2.9% | 1,154 | HD-IVR | 13% |
EKOS | data-sort-value="2020-07-23 | Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 | [80] | 43% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 2.4% | 1,691 | HD-IVR | 16% |
Probe Research | | [81] | 38% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 2% |
Innovative Research | | [82] | 38% | 26% | 26% | 10% | N/A | N/A | 200 | Online | 12% |
Probe Research | | [83] | 43% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
Probe Research | | [84] | 42% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% |
|
---|
2019 general election | data-sort-value="2019-09-10 | September 10, 2019 | — | 47.1% | 31.4% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 0.6% | — | — | — | 15.7% |
Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | | | | | Others | Margin | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
---|
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | |
---|
See also
References
Opinion poll sources
Notes and References
- Elections Act. CCSM. E30. 49.1. 2. http://web2.gov.mb.ca/laws/statutes/ccsm/e030e.php#49 .
- CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
- News: Petz. Sarah. August 11, 2021. Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election. CBC News. August 31, 2021. August 30, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210830165207/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-premier-brian-pallister-announcement-1.6136047. live.
- News: Froese. Ian. October 30, 2021. Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin. CBC News. October 31, 2021. October 30, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211030232933/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-female-premier-heather-stefanson-shelly-glover-1.6230152. live.
- Web site: PCs make opposition to landfill search a central facet of campaign as Manitoba election day nears . 2024-06-28 . CBC News.
- Web site: Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230920092700/https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/ . live .
- Web site: Archived copy . September 23, 2023 . September 28, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230928010944/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/election-sexism-racism-heather-stefanson-wab-kinew-1.6967223 . live .
- Web site: NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget . October 16, 2022 . September 23, 2023 . October 1, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231001080632/https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2022/10/16/wab-kinew-health-care-balance-budget/amp/ . live .
- Web site: 2023-09-14 . Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign . 2023-10-02 . Winnipeg . en . September 26, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230926061031/https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/economy-health-care-continue-to-draw-focus-of-manitoba-election-campaign-1.6560966 . live .
- Web site: Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-10-02 . CJOB . en-US . September 25, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230925013558/https://globalnews.ca/news/9960150/manitoba-election-campaign-thursday/ . live .
- Web site: Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-10-02 . CJOB . en-US . October 1, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231001203548/https://globalnews.ca/news/9974134/manitoba-ndp-geothermal-promise/ . live .
- Web site: Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-10-02 . CJOB . en-US . October 2, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231002194808/https://globalnews.ca/news/9999620/manitoba-liberals-election-option/ . live .
- Web site: 27 September 2023 . Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected . . October 2, 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051906/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/2023-election-liberals-debt-relief-pledge-1.6979971 . live .
- Web site: 27 September 2023 . Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity . The Graphic Leader . October 2, 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051904/https://www.thegraphicleader.com/news/local-news/manitoba-chamber-wants-you-to-vote-for-prosperity . live .
- News: Thompson . Sam . 4 October 2023 . Manitoba NDP will stick to landfill promise, MLA says . 18 November 2023 . Global News Winnipeg . Corus Entertainment . Global News.
- Web site: Kives . Bartley . Bartley Kives . 2 October 2023 . Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20231002201222/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-indigenous-issues-1.6983954 . October 2, 2023 . October 2, 2023 . CBC News.
- Web site: Gowriluk . Caitlyn . 22 September 2023 . Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate . . October 2, 2023 . September 23, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230923033854/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/wab-kinew-crime-promises-leaders-debate-fact-check-1.6976363 . live .
- Web site: Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry . 2023-10-02 . PortageOnline . October 1, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231001174540/https://www.portageonline.com/articles/candidates-encouraged-to-recognize-the-importance-of-manitobas-pork-industry . live .
- Web site: New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network . 2023-10-02 . REMINET . en-US . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051915/https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/new-poll-sheds-light-on-manitoba-housing-issues/ . live .
- Web site: Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-10-02 . CJOB . en-US . October 2, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231002194810/https://globalnews.ca/news/9999095/manitoba-minority-governments/ . live .
- Web site: Hobson . Brittany . Modified . The Canadian Press Posted: Last . 2023-09-29 . Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote . 2023-10-02 . Winnipeg Free Press . en-US . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051907/https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2023/09/29/new-fiscal-results-could-dominate-the-manitoba-election-campaign-today . live .
- https://results.electionsmanitoba.ca/election-map/en Official Results
- Web site: Political Parties . Elections Manitoba . July 10, 2023 . August 15, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230815032654/https://electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Political_Participation/Registered_Political_Parties . live .
- Web site: Clarke . Eileen . August 21, 2022 . I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election. . August 22, 2022 . Facebook . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051905/https://m.facebook.com/eileen.clarke.351?_rdr . live .
- Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics" . CBC News, January 6, 2023.
- News: Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons . . . June 13, 2023 . June 13, 2023 . June 13, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230613181121/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/sarah-guillemard-not-seeking-reelection-1.6874753 . live .
- News: Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid . Darren Bernhardt . . January 5, 2023 . January 5, 2023 . January 5, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230105210122/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/cathy-cox-manitoba-mla-re-election-1.6704405 . live .
- The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" . Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
- Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" . Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
- News: Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election . . . February 22, 2023 . February 23, 2023 . February 23, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230223201412/https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2023/02/22/shannon-martin-is-the-latest-manitoba-conservative-to-opt-out-of-upcoming-election . live .
- 1415698879710904323. BlainePedersen. I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election.. Blaine Pedersen. July 15, 2021. July 15, 2021.
- Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" . Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
- Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" . CBC News, January 4, 2023.
- Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" . CBC News, December 29, 2022.
- Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" . CBC News, January 3, 2023.
- Web site: Candidates . . August 15, 2023 . August 16, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230816175431/https://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Voting/Candidates/43rdGE . live .
- Web site: Our Team. Manitoba NDP. May 31, 2023. May 31, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230531155253/https://www.mbndp.ca/ourteam. live.
- Web site: Froese . Ian . April 11, 2023 . PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows . May 30, 2023 . CBC . May 9, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230509195351/https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/progressive-conservative-ndp-candidate-selection-manitoba-election-2023-1.6803610 . live .
- Web site: Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 . 2023-10-02 . electionsmanitoba.ca.
- News: Manitoba Tory cabinet minister denounces right-wing pivot in election campaign. The Canadian Press. CKY-DT. 4 October 2023.
- News: Health Minister Audrey Gordon among Winnipeg PC cabinet ministers losing seats to NDP. Sarah Petz. CBC News. 3 October 2023.
- Web site: Statement of Official Results - Tuxedo. Elections Manitoba. 4 October 2023.
- Web site: Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results). . Elections Manitoba. October 5, 2023.
- Sorted as per results summary.
- Including rejected and declined ballots.
- Web site: 2023-10-03 . Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader . 2023-10-04 . Winnipeg . en.
- Web site: NDP Majority Government Likely . . 2 October 2023 . 2 October 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051829/http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/987073b4-9ef4-4f8d-8f70-cc5eac655022NDP%20Majority%20Government%20Likely%20-%20Manitoba%20Election.pdf . live .
- Web site: Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day . Research Co. . 2 October 2023 . 2 October 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051906/https://researchco.ca/2023/10/02/mbpoli-final-2023/ . live .
- Web site: Martin . Robert . Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public . Mainstreet Research . 2 October 2023 . 2 October 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051907/https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/manitoba-provincial-october-2023-public/ . live .
- Web site: Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23 . Sovereign North Strategies . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . October 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051910/https://sovereignnorth.ca/voter-intention-survey-for-manitoba-winnipeg-september-17-1923/ . live .
- Web site: Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign . . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230920092700/https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/ . live .
- Web site: With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba . CTV News . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230920223922/https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/with-election-day-nearing-latest-polling-shows-ndp-surging-ahead-in-manitoba-1.6570558 . live .
- Web site: Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues . Research Co. . September 18, 2023 . September 18, 2023 . September 20, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230920132932/https://researchco.ca/2023/09/18/mbpoli-2023/ . live .
- Web site: Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023 . Counsel Public Affairs . September 26, 2023 . September 27, 2023 . September 27, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230927184614/https://counselpa.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Counsel-Public-Affairs-Manitoba-Polling-Report-September-2023-Tuesday-September-26.pdf . live .
- Web site: Fric . Curtis . Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public . September 7, 2023 . September 7, 2023 . September 7, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230907164248/https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/manitoba-provincial-august-2023-public/ . live .
- Web site: Fric . Curtis . Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public . August 2, 2023 . August 3, 2023 . August 3, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230803144905/https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/manitoba-provincial-july-2023-public/ . live .
- Web site: NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions) . Probe Research . June 21, 2023 . June 23, 2023 . June 22, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230622131622/https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-pcs-head-pre-election-period-dead-heat-june-2023-provincial-voting-intentions . live .
- Web site: Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election . Angus Reid Institute . June 13, 2023 . June 13, 2023 . June 13, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230613045730/https://angusreid.org/manitoba-2023-election-stefanson-kinew-progressive-conservatives-ndp/ . live .
- Web site: Manitoba Provincial Party Support . March 28, 2023 . probe-research.com . March 28, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230328164345/https://www.probe-research.com/sites/default/files/2023-03/Mar.%202023%20Omni%20-%20Provincial%20Politics.pdf . live .
- Web site: Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba . February 1, 2023 . ipolitics.ca . February 1, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230201231812/https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/MB_Jan_2023.pdf . live .
- Web site: NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) Probe Research Inc. . December 12, 2022 . probe-research.com . December 12, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221212181211/https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-lead-inches-slightly-higher-december-2022-omnibus . live .
- Web site: Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead CTV News . September 27, 2022 . ctvnews.ca . September 25, 2022 . September 26, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220926112644/https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/support-for-manitoba-pcs-has-slipped-since-last-election-ndp-holds-the-lead-1.6083747?taid=63318c39f31c3900014100b2&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+New+Content+(Feed)&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter . live .
- Web site: July 8, 2022 . Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart . Angus Reid Institute . en-US . July 19, 2022 . July 9, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220709003606/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022.07.08_Prairies_spotlight.pdf . live .
- Web site: NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) Probe Research Inc. . June 19, 2022 . probe-research.com . July 19, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220719050822/https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-maintains-lead-over-pcs-manitoba-june-2022-provincial-voting-intentions . live .
- Web site: Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) Probe Research Inc. . March 26, 2022 . www.probe-research.com . July 19, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220719050907/https://probe-research.com/polls/gap-between-ndp-pcs-widens-march-2022-provincial-voting-intentions . live .
- Web site: March 31, 2022 . Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management . March 31, 2022 . Angus Reid Institute . en-US . March 31, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220331111235/https://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-march-2022/ . live .
- Web site: March 31, 2022 . Detailed Results . Angus Reid Institute . en-US . March 31, 2022 . March 31, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220331111607/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022.03.28_Provincial_Spotlight_release_tables.pdf#page=7 . live .
- Web site: January 20, 2022. Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec. January 21, 2022. Angus Reid Institute. en-US. January 20, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220120152133/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf. live.
- Web site: No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier Probe Research Inc.. www.probe-research.com. December 16, 2021. December 16, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211216185037/https://www.probe-research.com/polls/no-bounce-new-pc-leader-and-premier. live.
- Web site: Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics. October 11, 2021. October 9, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211009001631/https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CTM2109-MB-Politics-Release-.pdf. live.
- Web site: Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments Angus Reid Institute. www.angusreid.org. October 31, 2021. October 27, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211027120428/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.27_Provincial_Spotlight.pdf. live.
- Web site: Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba Probe Research Inc.. www.probe-research.com. October 12, 2021. October 2, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211002213925/https://www.probe-research.com/polls/progressive-conservative-support-rebounds-manitoba. live.
- Web site: NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba Probe Research Inc.. www.probe-research.com. June 18, 2021. June 18, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210618135405/https://www.probe-research.com/polls/ndp-lead-widens-further-manitoba. live.
- Web site: Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management Angus Reid Institute. www.angusreid.org. June 9, 2021. June 13, 2021. June 13, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210613234934/https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-june2021/. live.
- Web site: NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity Probe Research Inc.. www.probe-research.com. March 31, 2021. March 31, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210331135349/https://www.probe-research.com/polls/ndp-extends-lead-pallister-plumbs-lower-levels-popularity. live.
- Web site: NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 Probe Research Inc.. January 13, 2021. www.probe-research.com. January 17, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210117001213/http://www.probe-research.com/polls/ndp-takes-lead-first-time-2016. live.
- Web site: December 10, 2020. Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management. January 13, 2021. Angus Reid Institute. en-US. January 13, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210113233002/http://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-economy-CCP. live.
- Web site: Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support Probe Research Inc.. January 13, 2021. www.probe-research.com. January 27, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210127131111/http://probe-research.com/polls/provincial-pcs-see-uptick-support. live.
- Web site: September 2, 2020. Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba. January 13, 2021. EKOS Politics. en-US. January 14, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210114122651/https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2020/09/comfortable-pc-lead-narrows-in-manitoba/. live.
- Web site: July 24, 2020. Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba. January 13, 2021. EKOS Politics. en-US. January 20, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210120230924/https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2020/07/tories-have-comfortable-lead-over-ndp-in-manitoba/. live.
- Web site: PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat Probe Research Inc.. January 13, 2021. www.probe-research.com. December 3, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201203050337/http://probe-research.com/polls/pcs-ndp-statistical-dead-heat. live.
- Web site: Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update. live. October 31, 2021. innovativeresearch.ca. https://web.archive.org/web/20201028093225/https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Provincial-Politics-during-CCP. October 28, 2020.
- Web site: Provincial Party Support Remains Steady Probe Research Inc.. January 13, 2021. www.probe-research.com. December 3, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201203043904/http://probe-research.com/polls/provincial-party-support-remains-steady. live.
- News: Robertson. Dylan. December 27, 2019. Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election. en-CA. Winnipeg Free Press. January 13, 2021. September 17, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200917202556/https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ndp-gains-traction-after-pc-re-election-566507642.html. live.