32nd Alberta general election explained

Election Name:	32nd Alberta general election
Country:	Alberta
Type:	parliamentary
Ongoing:	yes
Party Colour:	no
Party Name:	no
Previous Election:	2023 Alberta general election
Previous Year:	2023
Previous Mps:	outgoing members
Next Election:	2031 Alberta general election
Seats For Election:	All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
Majority Seats:	44
Leader1:	Danielle Smith
Leader Since1:	October 6, 2022
Leaders Seat1:	Brooks-Medicine Hat
Last Election1:	49 seats, 52.56%
Seats Before1:	48
Leader2:	Naheed Nenshi
Leader Since2:	June 22, 2024
Leaders Seat2:	None
Last Election2:	38 seats, 44.02%
Seats Before2:	37
Premier
Before Election:	Danielle Smith
Before Party:	United Conservative
Posttitle:	Premier after election

The 32nd Alberta general election will be held in Alberta, Canada, to elect the members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. According to Alberta's Election Act, it is scheduled for October 18, 2027,^[1] but that does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Timeline

2023

• May 29: The United Conservative Party (UCP) wins a majority government in the 31st Alberta general election, with the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) forming the official opposition. No other parties won seats in the election.
• June 9: The UCP Cabinet is sworn in.^[2]
• June 20: Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper is elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.^[3]
• September 18: Jordan Wilkie resigns as Green Party leader.^{[4] [5]}
• October 15: Barry Morishita resigns as Alberta Party leader.^{[6] [7]}

2024

• January 16: Rachel Notley announces intention to resign as NDP leader before the next election. She will remain as leader until a leadership race choses a successor.^[8]
• May 30: Bill 21 receives Royal Assent, changing the next fixed election date to October 18, 2027.^[9]
• June 22: Naheed Nenshi is elected leader of the Alberta NDP.

Opinion polls

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Source	UCP	NDP	Green	Alberta	Liberal	WLC	WIP	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Leger	N/A	–5, 2024	^[10]	48%	40%	3%	4%	3%	2%	—	2%	3.1%	1,005	Online	8%
Sovereign North Strategies	Western Standard	–11, 2024	^[11] ^[12]	47%	46%	1%	4%	—	—	2%	—	2.4%	2,861	Telephone	1%
Abacus Data	N/A	–28, 2024	^[13]	54%	40%	—	—	—	—	—	6%	3.31%	1,000	Online	14%
		Naheed Nenshi elected leader of the Alberta NDP.
Leger	N/A	–25, 2024	^[14]	47%	43%	—	6%	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,009	Online	4%
Leger	N/A	–24, 2024	^[15]	46%	44%	1%	4%	1%	1%	—	2%	3.1%	1,002	Online	2%
Abacus Data	N/A	–21, 2024	^[16]	55%	40%	—	2%	—	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,000	Online	15%
Pallas Data	N/A	–13, 2024	^[17]	52%	45%	—	—	—	—	—	3%	3.3%	868	IVR	7%
Leger	N/A	–11, 2024	^[18] ^[19]	49%	41%	—	6%	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,001	Online	8%
Leger	N/A	–12, 2024	^[20]	49%	42%	—	5%	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,002	Online	7%
Leger	N/A	–22, 2024	^[21]	51%	40%	—	—	—	—	—	9%	3.1%	1,001	Online	11%
Leger	N/A	–15, 2024	^[22]	50%	43%	—	3%	—	—	—	4%	3.1%	1,012	Online	7%
Angus Reid	N/A	–Dec 1, 2023	^[23] ^[24]	53%	40%	—	3%	2%	—	—	1%	5%	392	Online	13%
Leger	N/A	–30, 2023	^[25]	46%	47%	—	5%	—	—	—	2%	3.1%	1,001	Online	1%
Leger	N/A	–18, 2023	^[26]	49%	39%	2%	4%	3%	1%	—	2%	3.1%	1,001	Online	10%
2023 general election				52.63%	44.05%	0.76%	0.71%	0.24%	0.24%	0.05%	1.32%	—	—	—	8.58%

References

Opinion poll sources

External links

• Government of Alberta
• Elections Alberta

Notes and References

1. Web site: Alberta's Next Election . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240609172544/https://www.elections.ab.ca/elections/albertas-next-election/ . 2024-06-09 . 2024-06-09 . Elections Alberta.
2. Web site: June 9, 2023 . Premier Smith appoints new Alberta cabinet with many familiar faces in different portfolios . CTV News . August 16, 2023 . June 23, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230623213126/https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/premier-smith-appoints-new-alberta-cabinet-with-many-familiar-faces-in-different-portfolios-1.6434074 . live .
3. Web site: June 20, 2023 . 'Did a remarkable job': Cooper reelected as Speaker in Alberta legislature . CTV News . August 16, 2023 . August 16, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230816021500/https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/did-a-remarkable-job-cooper-reelected-as-speaker-in-alberta-legislature-1.6448896 . live .
4. Web site: Final Message from Jordan Wilkie as Leader of the Green Party of Alberta . . . September 18, 2023 . September 18, 2023 . October 15, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231015023919/https://www.facebook.com/GreenPartyAB/videos/1030427658111246/ . live .
5. Web site: Jordan Wilkie . . . October 5, 2023 . October 5, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231005162926/https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2774567 . live .
6. Web site: THE ALBERTA PARTY POLITICAL ASSOCIATION ANNOUNCES THE RESIGNATION OF LEADER BARRY MORISHITA . 2023-11-10 . Alberta Party . en . 2023-11-09 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231109051834/https://www.albertaparty.ca/resignation_of_leader_barry_morishita . live .
7. Web site: 2023-11-08 . Barry Morishita resigns as leader of seatless Alberta Party . 2023-11-10 . CTV Edmonton . en . 2023-11-10 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231110042244/https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/barry-morishita-resigns-as-leader-of-seatless-alberta-party-1.6637024 . live .
8. Web site: Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley stepping down as NDP leader . Emily . Mertz . Global News . January 16, 2024 . January 16, 2024 . January 16, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240116221813/https://globalnews.ca/news/10158023/alberta-politics-ndp-rachel-notley-steps-down/ . live .
9. Web site: Bill 21: Emergency Statutes Amendment Act, 2024 . 2024-06-09 . Legislative Assembly of Alberta.
10. Web site: Government of Alberta Report Card August 2024 . Leger . 16 August 2024 . 13 August 2024.
11. Web site: Alberta – Province Wide Survey of Decided Voters . Sovereign North Strategies . 23 July 2024 . 19 July 2024.
12. Web site: Polczer . Shaun . EXCLUSIVE: Poll says Nenshi would be premier if election held tomorrow . . 23 July 2024 . 18 July 2024.
13. Web site: Coletto . David . Sheppard . Eddie . Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 14-points post-Nenshi leadership victory. . . 8 July 2024 . 4 July 2024.
14. Web site: Alberta May Polling . Leger . 31 May 2024 . 4 June 2024.
15. Web site: Government of Alberta Report Card: April 2024 . Leger Marketing . 4 April 2024 . 5 April 2024.
16. Web site: Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points.. Abacus Data . 27 March 2024 . 27 March 2024.
17. Web site: Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45 . Pallas Data . 18 March 2024 . 18 March 2024 . 18 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240318120043/https://pallas-data.ca/2024/03/18/1162/ . live .
18. Web site: Kaufmann . Bill . Nenshi's leadership would boost voter support for Alberta NDP: poll . . . 14 March 2024 . 14 March 2024 . 14 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240314233928/https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-leadership-boost-voter-support-alberta-ndp-poll . live .
19. Web site: Alberta Omni Report – March 2024 . Leger Marketing . 15 March 2024 . 15 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240315184114/https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Report-Leger-AB-March-Polling-March-13-2024.pdf . live .
20. Web site: Legislation on Gender Affirming Care for Children & Polling: Survey of Albertans . Leger . 15 February 2024 . 17 February 2024 . 17 February 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240217014325/https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Report-Gender-affirming-policy-AB_-February-14-2024.pdf . live .
21. Web site: Changes to the NDP in Alberta: Alberta Omni Report . Leger . 26 January 2024 . 26 January 2024 . 27 January 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240127022012/https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Leger-Alberta-Changes-to-the-NDP-in-Alberta-Jan-24-2024.pdf . live .
22. Web site: Alberta Vote Intentions: Alberta Omni Report . Leger . 19 January 2024 . 20 January 2024 . 20 January 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240120182856/https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Leger-Alberta-Poll-_Provincial-Voting-Intentions-Jan-18-2024.pdf . live .
23. Web site: Alberta Spotlight: Split over health care restructuring, most blame lack of resources for current challenges . . 7 December 2023 . 19 December 2023 . 16 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231216121733/https://angusreid.org/alberta-health-services-restructuring-danielle-smith-ahs/ . live .
24. Web site: 2023.12.06_Alberta_Only.pdf . . 19 December 2023 . 12 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231212095535/https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023.12.06_Alberta_Only.pdf . live .
25. Web site: Alberta Vote Intentions. Leger. en-CA. October 10, 2023. November 10, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231110032537/https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Leger-Alberta-Poll-_Provincial-Voting-Intentions-Nov-7-2023.pdf. live.
26. Web site: Government of Alberta Report Card . Leger . 5 October 2023 . 5 October 2023 . 20 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231220042703/https://legermarketing.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AB-Government-Report-Card-September-19-2023.pdf . live .