| Italic Title: | 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years |
| 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years | |
| Author: | Jørgen Randers |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | Climatology Environmental Economics |
| Genre: | Non-fiction |
| Publisher: | Chelsea Green Publishing |
| Pub Date: | June 13, 2012 |
| Pages: | 416 |
| Isbn: | 978-1603584210 |
2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a 2012 book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to The Limits to Growth, which in 1972 was the first worldwide report by the Club of Rome.
It differs in three ways from the previous report. First, it does not describe an impending disaster scenario, but shows only trends. Secondly, it is to be read in the light of experience since 1972, namely, that all of humanity has responded to the report, but with a delay of 20 to 40 years. Thirdly, it offers not only future scenarios, it makes concrete proposals on how the individual should respond to emerging developments.
Randers repeatedly points out that he does not want to predict specific events, only general trends.
The Internet will give rise to a completely new understanding of what is private and public. Knowledge will not be a scarce resource any more, but this will not lead to more rational decisions in most cases because knowledge on its own is not sufficient to change behavior when strong interests are involved. Therefore, it is likely that a "greenkeeping force" will be set up to enforce environmentally positive behavior, similar to the peacekeeping forces (blue berets) of today.[1]
Randers references UN recommendations[2] and gives 20 pieces of advice concerning individual behavior.
In short words he states:[3]
Concretely, in order to create a better world for our grandchildren, we should:
- Have fewer children, especially in the rich world.
- Reduce the ecological footprint, first by slowing the use of coal, oil and gas in the rich world.
- Construct a low-carbon energy system in the poor world, paid for by the rich.
- Create institutions that counter national short-termism.
But most importantly, the coming crisis should be used to develop new goals for modern society. To remind us all that the purpose of society is to increase total life satisfaction, not primarily to have each person contribute to the economic gross domestic product.