Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2029 European Parliament election explained

This article lists EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates as well as national polls for the 2029 European Parliament election.^[1]

Seat projections

This table lists the seat projections for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.

Organisation	Release date	Ref.	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	PfE	ESN	NI	Others	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
Der Föderalist	7 Oct 2024	^[2]	44	136	41	79	186	74	96	26	29	9	50
Europe Elects	30 Sep 2024	^[3]	46	141	40	73	185	82	93	27	31	2	44
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2024	^[4]	45	140	44	72	186	80	92	26	32	3	46
Der Föderalist	12 Aug 2024	^[5]	44	137	45	77	191	73	88	25	31	9	54
2024 European Parliament election	6-9 June 2024	^[6]	46	136	53	77	188	78	84	25	33	–	52

Popular vote projections

This table lists the vote share projection for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.

Organisation	Release date	Ref.	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	PfE	ESN	NI	Others	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
Europe Elects	31 Oct 2024	^[7]	8.5%	18.3%	6.4%	10.5%	23.4%	10.2%	10.7%	5.1%	4%	2.9%	5.1%
Europe Elects	30 Sep 2024		8.1%	18.9%	7.1%	9.4%	23.6%	9.3%	9.9%	5.2%	4.4%	3.5%	4.7%
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2024		6.7%	17.7%	6.0%	8.4%	22.8%	9.3%	9.1%	5.1%	3.9%	7.8%	5.1%
2024 European Parliament election	6-9 June 2024	^[8]	6.74%	18.82%	8.88%	10.68%	20.80%	12.22%	9.36%	–	9.07%	3.43%	1.98%

Notes and References

1. Web site: European Parliament 2024-2029 Constitutive session . 2024-09-01 . European Parliament . en.
2. Web site: Müller . Manuel . 2024-08-16 . European Parliament seat projection (August 2024): EPP continues to gain ground . 2024-09-01 . foederalist.eu.
3. Web site: European Parliament projection 2024-2029 . 2024-10-20 . europeelects.eu.
4. Web site: European Parliament projection 2024-2029 . 2024-09-01 . europeelects.eu.
5. Web site: Müller . Manuel . 2024-08-16 . European Parliament seat projection (August 2024): EPP continues to gain ground . 2024-09-01 . foederalist.eu.
6. Web site: European Parliament 2024-2029. European Parliament. 2024-07-23.
7. Web site: European Parliament projection . 2024-11-02 . Europe Elects . en-US.
8. Web site: European Parliament Election 2024. europeelects.eu.