| Election Name: | 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election |
| Country: | Schleswig-Holstein |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Next Election: | 2032 Schleswig-Holstein state election |
| Next Year: | 2032 |
| Seats For Election: | All 69 seats in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein |
| Majority Seats: | 35 |
| Election Date: | 2027 |
| Party1: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
| Last Election1: | 34 seats, 43.4% |
| Party2: | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| Last Election2: | 14 seats, 18.3% |
| Party3: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election3: | 12 seats, 16.2% |
| Party4: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election4: | 5 seats, 6.4% |
| Party5: | South Schleswig Voter Federation |
| Last Election5: | 4 seats, 5.7% |
| Government | |
| Before Election: | Second Günther cabinet |
| Before Party: | CDU–Green |
| Posttitle: | Government after election |
The 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election will be held in 2027 to elect the 21st Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein.[1]
The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 35 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 34 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 69 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold, and fail to win at least one constituency, are ineligible to receive seats. Parties representing the Danish minority of Southern Schleswig and the Frisians, such as the South Schleswig Voters' Association, are exempt from the threshold.[2]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CDU | Grüne | SPD | FDP | SSW | AfD | Linke | Others | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 6–13 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 40 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 12 | – | 5 | 24 | |||
| Wahlkreisprognose | data-sort-value="2023-10-02" | 24 Sep–2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 32.5 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 1.5 | 5 | 14.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2023-04-27" | 20–25 Apr 2023 | – | 38 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 8 | – | 7 | 21 | ||
| INSA | data-sort-value="2023-04-25" | 17–24 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 39 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | ||
| 2022 state election | data-sort-value="2022-05-08" | 8 May 2022 | – | 43.4 | 18.3 | 16.2 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 25.1 |