2026 Berlin state election explained

Election Name:2026 Berlin state election
Country:Berlin
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2023 Berlin state election
Previous Year:2023
Next Election:2029 Berlin state election
Next Year:2031
Outgoing Members:List of members of the 19th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (2023–2026)
Elected Members:List of members of the 20th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (2027–2029)
Election Date:2026
Party1:Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Last Election1:52 seats, 28.2%
Party2:Social Democratic Party of Germany
Last Election2:34 seats, 18.4%
Party3:Alliance 90/The Greens
Last Election3:34 seats, 18.4%
Party4:The Left (Germany)
Last Election4:22 seats, 12.2%
Party5:Alternative for Germany
Last Election5:17 seats, 9.1%
Government
Before Election:Wegner senate
Before Party:CDUSPD
After Election:TBD

The next election to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin is scheduled for 2026.

Background

In the 2023 Berlin repeat state election With 28% of votes, the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) grew by over ten percentage points and emerged as the largest party by a wide margin, the first time it had done so since 1999. All three governing parties declined; the SPD suffered its worst result in over a century with 18.4%, and only barely remained ahead of the Greens by a margin of 53 votes. The Left also slipped to 12%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded a small upswing to 9%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 4.6% and lost all their seats. Overall, the incumbent government retained a reduced majority. The CDU claimed a mandate to govern given its first-place result, while mayor Franziska Giffey committed to remaining in government. The Left called for a renewal of the outgoing coalition.[1]

After various talks between parties, the SPD and CDU voted at the beginning of March to begin negotiations for a grand coalition. CDU leader Kai Wegner was approved as mayor on 27 April after three rounds of voting.[2] [3]

Electoral system

The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%.[4]

Opinion polls

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPOthersLead
Infratest dimap1,1792712206154797
INSA1,00026181571241268
European Parliament electiondata-sort-value="2024-06-09"9 Jun 202417.613.219.67.311.64.38.717.72.0
Infratest dimap1,17427152010123677
INSA1,000291617101341112
Infratest dimap1,15929151910154810
INSA1,00026171810145108
Wahlkreisprognose1,00024.51616.513.51649.58
INSA1,0003018181195912
2023 state electionN/A28.218.418.412.29.14.69.09.8

West Berlin

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDUSPDGrüneLinkeAfDFDPOthersLead
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2023-02-02" 12–16 Oct 20233117208134711
2023 state election12 Feb 202331.119.919.89.06.87.06.411.2

East Berlin

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDULinkeSPDGrüneAfDFDPOthersLead
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2022-03-19" 12–16 Oct 2023261214 18173108
2023 state election12 Feb 202324.316.616.416.412.23.710.40.2

References

  1. Web site: 13 February 2023 . Berlin: Conservatives projected to win repeated vote . Deutsche Welle.
  2. Web site: 2 March 2023 . CDU board votes for coalition negotiations with SPD . . de.
  3. Web site: 2023-04-27 . Ex-insurance salesman elected unlikely mayor of Berlin . 2023-04-27 . France 24 . en.
  4. Web site: 19 January 2022 . Elections . 30 October 2022 . Berlin.de . de.

See also