2025 Western Australian state election explained

Election Name:2025 Western Australian state election
Country:Western Australia
Ongoing:yes
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2021 Western Australian state election
Previous Year:2021
Election Date:8 March 2025
Next Election:2029 Western Australian state election
Next Year:2029
Seats For Election:All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 37 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion Polls:2025 Western Australian state election#Opinion polling
Leader1:Roger Cook
Party1:Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)
Leader Since1:6 June 2023
Leaders Seat1:Kwinana
Last Election1:53 seats, 59.92%
Seats Before1:53 seats
Leader2:Shane Love
Leader Since2:30 January 2023
Party2:National Party of Australia (WA)
Leaders Seat2:Moore
Last Election2:4 seats, 4.00%
Seats Before2:3 seats
Seats Needed2: 27
Leader3:Libby Mettam
Party3:Liberal Party of Australia (Western Australian Division)
Leader Since3:30 January 2023
Leaders Seat3:Vasse
Last Election3:2 seats, 21.30%
Seats Before3:3 seats
Seats Needed3: 27
1Blank:TPP
2Blank:TPP swing
Premier
Before Election:Roger Cook
Before Party:Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)

The 2025 Western Australian state election is scheduled to be held on 8 March 2025 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 37 seats in the Legislative Council will be up for election.

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Roger Cook, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term against the NationalLiberal opposition, currently led by Shane Love and Libby Mettam respectively.[1]

Candidates will be elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate.

Background

The 2021 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. It won 53 of the 59 seats, surpassing its own record set four years earlier for the largest government majority and seat tally in Western Australian parliamentary history.[2] [3]

Registered parties

The following parties are registered with the Western Australian Electoral Commission:[4]

The Democratic Labour Party, Libertarian Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation currently have their application for registration advertised.[5]

Electoral system

Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, 37 candidates are elected across the state, which functions as a single electorate.

Legislative Council voting changes

In September 2021, the McGowan Labor Government introduced the "one vote, one value" legislation to change the voting system for the Legislative Council at this election. Under the then-existing voting system for the upper house, which had been in place since 2005, voters were divided into six regions of unequal weight, each of whom were responsible for electing six candidates (36 in total). Three of the regions were based in metropolitan Perth, and three in the regions. This meant that a region like the Mining and Pastoral region had 16% of the average number of electors in the three metropolitan regions.[6] [7] The government proposed abolishing the regions and replacing them with what it called a "one vote, one value" system. Instead, 37 members will be elected from a single statewide constituency. This increased the size of the council by one seat. Group voting tickets, which were abolished for the federal Senate in 2016 and are utilised only for the Victorian Legislative Council, would also be abolished.[8] Votes are instead cast under an optional preferential voting system, requiring electors to vote for one or morepreferred parties above the dividing line on the ballot paper, or at least 20 candidates below the dividing line.[9] The legislation passed the parliament on 17 November 2021 and received royal assent seven days thereafter.[10] [11] [12]

Redistribution

The Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted a redistribution of the boundaries of all 59 electoral districts. The final boundaries for the electoral districts were released on 1 December 2023.[13]

The seats of Moore and North West Central were merged to create a new seat, Mid-West. The merger of two rural seats into one was matched by the creation of a new seat in Perth, Oakford, which covers growing suburbs between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway.

According to psephologist Antony Green, the Coalition will need a combined swing of 23.4% to gain the 24 seats needed to form a majority government.

On the new boundaries, there are 17 seats with margins under 15%, which will be regarded as "key seats". (Green described these as "marginal seats" due to the extent of Labor's landslide in 2021, as normally a margin of over 15% would be considered a safe seat.)

Changes to electorates of the Legislative Assembly

Current seat2021 electionNew seat2023 redistribution
PartyMemberMarginPartyMemberMargin*
Burns BeachLaborMark Folkard26.9MindarieLaborNotional23.1
MirrabookaLaborMeredith Hammat33.7GirrawheenLaborNotional33.4
MooreNationalsShane Love8.5Mid-WestNationalsNotional8.6
North-West CentralNationalsVince Catania1.7
New seatOakfordLaborNotional27.7
WarnbroLaborPaul Papalia33.4Secret HarbourLaborNotional31.3
WillageeLiberalPeter Tinley27.1Bibra LakeLaborNotional28.2
  • These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2023 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2021 election results.
Seat! rowspan="2"
PartyMargin
New20212017
ChurchlandsALP1.60.813.2
Warren-BlackwoodALP2.21.313.4
NedlandsALP3.12.88.3
CarineALP4.02.59.0
VasseLIB4.34.314.7
BatemanALP6.76.79.5
CottesloeLIB7.47.413.3
Mid-WestNAT8.6
Central WheatbeltNAT8.610.722.6
GeraldtonALP9.311.71.3
ScarboroughALP9.510.45.6
South PerthALP10.110.17.2
RoeNAT12.211.114.4
AlbanyALP11.013.75.1
DawesvilleALP13.113.90.7
Darling RangeALP14.113.55.8
KalamundaALP14.511.82.5

Key dates

Elections are scheduled for the second Saturday of March every four years, in line with legislative changes made in 2011.[14]

While the Legislative Assembly has fixed four-year terms, the Governor of Western Australia may still dissolve the Assembly and call an election early on the advice of the Premier.[15]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal

National

Candidates

See main article: Candidates of the 2025 Western Australian state election.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

+Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary voteTPP vote
ALPLIBNATGRNONPOTHALPLIB
14 December 2023Redbridge[37] 120044%29%4%11%3%9%59%41%
23 July 2023Utting Research[38] 100032%37%6%10%15%46%54%
31 May 2023Utting Research[39] 80052%28%5%8%7%61%39%
13 March 2021 electionN/A59.9%21.3%4.0%6.9%1.3%6.6%69.7%30.3%

Preferred Premier

Satisfaction ratings

DateFirmSampleCookMettam
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
23 July 2023Utting Research100027%37%36%-10%31%24%45%+7%
31 May 2023Utting Research80042%26%32%+16%31%33%36%-2%
DateFirmSampleMcGowanMettam
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
11 Mar 2023Painted Dog Research[40] 105263%24%13%+39%24%18%58%+6%
DateFirmSampleMcGowanHoney
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't knowNet
19–21 Oct 2022Painted Dog Research[41] 63770%18%12%+52%9%31%60%-22%

Notes and References

  1. News: Shepherd . Tory . 2023-05-29 . Mark McGowan resigns as premier of Western Australia saying he is 'exhausted' . en-GB . The Guardian . 2023-05-29 . 0261-3077.
  2. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2021/ WA Election 2021
  3. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/13/western-australia-liberals-worst-fears-realised-zak-kirkup-unseated Mark McGowan leads Labor landslide in WA as Liberals' worst fears are realised
  4. Web site: Registered Political Parties in WA. 29 April 2024. www.elections.wa.gov.au.
  5. https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/candidates-and-parties/registered-political-parties/applications-and-notices
  6. Web site: The Growing Bias Against Perth and the South West in WA's Legislative Council. Green. Antony. Antony Green. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 6 March 2017.
  7. Web site: Green . Antony . WA's Zonal Electoral System and the Legislative Council Reform Debate – Antony Green's Election Blog . Antony Green's Election Blog . 4 May 2021 . 22 May 2021 . en-AU.
  8. Web site: Mark McGowan announces sweeping changes to WA's electoral system, abolishing regions. Rhiannon Shine and Jacob Kagi. 15 September 2021. ABC News.
  9. Web site: EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM: CONSTITUTIONAL AND ELECTORAL LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (ELECTORAL EQUALITY) BILL 2021. parliament.wa.gov.au. Refer to pp. 3.
  10. Web site: WA government uses majority to introduce sweeping changes to electoral system. Rhiannon Shine and Nicolas Perpitch. 17 November 2021. ABC News.
  11. Web site: Progress of Bills: Constitutional and Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Equality) Bill 2021. parliament.wa.gov.au.
  12. Web site: Constitutional and Electoral Legislation Amendment (Electoral Equality) Act 2021. legislation.wa.gov.au.
  13. Web site: Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released – Antony Green's Election Blog . December 2023 .
  14. Web site: State Elections . . Western Australia Electoral Commission . 26 April 2021.
  15. Electoral and Constitution Amendment Act 2011 (WA), section 5
  16. Web site: Caporn . Dylan . Lisa Baker: Another Labor MP announces retirement from politics ahead of 2025 State Election . The West Australian . 5 March 2024 . 5 March 2024 . subscription.
  17. Web site: Law . Peter . Alannah MacTiernan set to retire from politics at next State election . The West Australian . 29 July 2022 . 29 July 2022 . subscription.
  18. Web site: 9 February 2024 . Battle looms for Perth Hills after MP confirms retirement . 20 February 2024 . The West Australian . subscription.
  19. Web site: Weber . David . WA's Mines, Petroleum and Energy Minister Bill Johnston resigns from state parliament . ABC News . 2 December 2023 . 30 November 2023.
  20. Web site: 7 July 2024 . Kyle McGinn: MUA-aligned Upper House MP seeks to enter Federal Parliament via new WA seat of Bullwinkel . 14 July 2024 . The West Australian . subscription.
  21. Web site: Zimmerman . Josh . Mt Lawley MP Simon Millman to retire at 2025 State election . The West Australian . 8 April 2024 . 8 April 2024 . subscription.
  22. https://www.facebook.com/WALabor/posts/pfbid0XwF4h2GKjJYhVR3QUbUDB6cSKW3ij1yu7L9BF2PH581roPwSMYDHyxyamJdhMm6il
  23. Web site: Ho . Cason . WA Attorney-General John Quigley to quit politics at 2025 state election . ABC News . 20 February 2024 . 19 February 2024.
  24. Web site: Zimmerman . Josh . Landsdale MP Margaret Quirk confirms retirement at 2025 election, opening door to Daniel Pastorelli . The West Australian . 3 April 2024 . 2 April 2024 . subscription.
  25. Web site: Brookes . Sarah . Labor stalwart's retirement opens door for WA Premier's right-hand man to enter politics . WAtoday . 3 April 2024 . 3 April 2024.
  26. Web site: Zimmerman . Josh . Confirmed: Labor MP Katrina Stratton abandons Nedlands in favour of safe seat in the Legislative Council . The West Australian . 6 July 2024 . 5 July 2024 . subscription.
  27. Web site: Zimmerman . Josh . Swan Hills MP Jessica Shaw announces shock retirement to pursue more active role in energy transition . The West Australian . 3 June 2024 . 3 June 2024 . subscription.
  28. https://www.facebook.com/TallentireMLA/posts/pfbid0MU6hZ92jj65yUF1M3kVxAwAi83YeZwcDRkUHzpX5XBTBCz93QwvfciJ1fbvCuA8ml
  29. Web site: Willagee MP Peter Tinley to quit Parliament at 2025 election . 14 March 2024 .
  30. Web site: Joe . Spagnolo . Joe Spagnolo opinion: Leadership stoush a test of the power of The Clan . The West Australian . 30 January 2023 . 29 January 2023 . subscription.
  31. Web site: Dietsch . Jake . Long-serving Liberal MLC Donna Faragher will retire at 2025 election . The West Australian . 10 January 2024 . 10 January 2024 . subscription.
  32. Web site: Hastie . Hamish . WA Liberals' only upper house female MLC to quit parliament . WAtoday . 10 January 2024 . 10 January 2024.
  33. Web site: David Honey out, Sandra Brewer selected as Liberal party's Cottesloe candidate . 10 February 2024 .
  34. News: Zimmerman . Josh . 16 April 2024 . Martin Aldridge: Nationals MP to retire from politics at next election . . 9 June 2024.
  35. News: Carmody . James . 27 January 2023 . WA Opposition Leader Mia Davies announces resignation . . 27 January 2023.
  36. CdG_MLC . 1799320861167808956 . Today I made the decision to withdraw my nomination for preselection for the Nationals WA in the Legislative Council. I extend my thanks to the wonderful members of the organisation for the support and friendship they have given me over the 15 years I have been involved. #wapol.
  37. Web site: 2023-12-15 . WA has turned into a Labor fortress . 2023-12-15 . . en.
  38. Web site: 2023-07-23 . Poll shows Libby Mettam's Liberals hold 54-46 two-party preferred lead over Labor with Roger Cook as Premier . 2023-07-23 . . en.
  39. Web site: Leadership polling: New numbers offer Liberals a small glimmer of hope. The West Australian. 3 June 2023. 31 May 2023.
  40. Web site: 11 March 2023 . McGowan's approval rating at lowest level since pandemic .
  41. News: Law . Peter . 'WA Liberal Party leader David Honey's approval rating at a humiliating low, new Painted Dog Research reveals' . The West Australian . 2022-10-28.