| Election Name: | 2025 Hamburg state election |
| Country: | Hamburg |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2020 Hamburg state election |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Seats For Election: | All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament |
| Majority Seats: | 62 |
| Election Date: | 2025 |
| Party1: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election1: | 54 seats, 39.2% |
| Party2: | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| Last Election2: | 33 seats, 24.2% |
| Party3: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
| Last Election3: | 15 seats, 11.2% |
| Party4: | The Left (Germany) |
| Last Election4: | 13 seats, 9.1% |
| Party5: | Alternative for Germany |
| Last Election5: | 7 seats, 5.3% |
| Party6: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election6: | 1 seats, 4.9% |
| Government | |
| Before Election: | Second Tschentscher senate |
| Before Party: | SPD–Green |
| Posttitle: | Government after election |
The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2025.
In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while the left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.
The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP is represented by a non-attached member of parliament.
The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a Red-Green coalition.[1]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahlkreisprognose | 15–25 Apr 2024 | 1,304 | 32 | 21.5 | 18 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 10.5 | |||
| Infratest dimap | 1–5 Feb 2024 | 1,164 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | 8 | 9 | |||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17–24 Oct 2023 | 1,068 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 4 | – | 4 | 12 | |||
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep–2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 21 | 8.5 | 13 | 3 | – | 8.5 | 3 | |||
| Wahlkreisprognose | data-sort-value="2022-09-16" | 9–16 Sep 2022 | 950 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | – | 5 | 5 | ||
| Wahlkreisprognose | data-sort-value="2022-01-29" | 24–29 Jan 2022 | 1,000 | 40 | 26.5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 7 | – | 5.5 | 13.5 | ||
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.7 | 24.9 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 11.4 | – | 6.9 | 4.8 | |||
| pmg – policy matters | data-sort-value="2020-06-11" | 2–11 Jun 2020 | 1,020 | 37 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 5 | – | 4 | 14 | ||
| 2020 state election | data-sort-value="2020-02-23" | 23 Feb 2020 | – | 39.2 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | – | 6.1 | 15.0 |