2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state) explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Washington
Country:Washington
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance

The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Washington voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic party in 2024.

Primary election

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Washington Republican presidential primary. The Washington Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Washington Democratic presidential primary. The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas, Mississippi, and Georgia.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political Report[2] December 19, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[3] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] June 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[5] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[6] December 30, 2023
align=left CNN[7] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[8] July 9, 2024
538[9] June 11, 2024
RCP[10] June 26, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSAJuly 10–13, 2024708 (LV)± 5.0%50%36%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[13] May 15–16, 2024615 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
The Independent Center[14] April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%45%46%9%
Echelon Insights[15] March 18–21, 2024600 (RV)± 4.7%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[16] data-sort-value="2024-02-16" February 13–14, 2024797 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[17] data-sort-value="2023-06-08" November 14–15, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%52%38%10%
Crosscut/Elway[18] data-sort-value="2023-06-08" October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%39%29%31%
Public Policy Polling (D)[19] data-sort-value="2023-06-08" June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%53%36%11%
Emerson College[20] data-sort-value="2022-10-01" September 30 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%49%39%12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[21] data-sort-value="2022-08-17" August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%41%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[22] May 13–16, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%42%34%3%1%0%17%
The Independent CenterApril 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%35%40%13%1%4%8%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . August 20, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  3. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  4. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  5. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  6. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  7. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  8. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . June 12, 2024 . en.
  9. Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . en . June 11, 2024.
  10. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  11. Web site: Beneath the surface, blue WA has a massive political fault line. July 17, 2024. The Seattle Times.
  12. Web site: Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters. Andrew. Villeneuve. July 26, 2024.
  13. Web site: Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided. Andrew. Villeneuve. May 20, 2024.
  14. Web site: The Independent Center.
  15. Web site: Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck.pdf. Google Docs.
  16. Web site: Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points. Andrew. Villeneuve. February 17, 2024.
  17. Web site: Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington. Andrew. Villeneuve. November 17, 2023.
  18. https://crosscut.com/sites/default/files/uploads/2023/11/crosscut-elway-poll-1123.pdf Crosscut/Elway
  19. Web site: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve. Andrew. Villeneuve. June 12, 2023.
  20. Web site: Emerson College.
  21. https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/WA-Jordan-PPT-08-17-22.pdf McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  22. Web site: Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race | Cascade PBS News. Donna Gordon. Blankinship. crosscut.com.