| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Country: | Virginia |
| Type: | Presidential |
| College Voted: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Virginia |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Donald Trump |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,335,395 |
| Percentage1: | 52.10% |
| Popular Vote2: | 2,075,085 |
| Percentage2: | 46.29% |
| Electoral Vote1: | 13 |
| Electoral Vote2: | 0 |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Before the election, most news organizations considered Virginia a likely win for Harris. On election day, Harris won Virginia with 51.83% of the vote, carrying the state by a margin of 5.77%, similar to the 2016 results. However, Trump made notable gains across much of the commonwealth, particularly in the Northern and Southside regions of Virginia.[1] He reclaimed Lynchburg City, flipped Prince Edward County, which hadn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 2000, and also flipped Surry County, which last supported a Republican presidential candidate in 1972. Harris, by contrast, did not flip any counties or independent cities in Virginia. This is the first time since 1924 that the state voted for a Democrat that lost the popular vote.
See main article: 2024 Virginia Democratic presidential primary. The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second-best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.
See main article: 2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary. The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.
Harris won the state by 5.77%, worse than Biden's margin but slightly improved from Hillary Clinton's 5.32% margin. Trump flipped Prince Edward County for the first time since 2000, Surry County since 1972, and won back the city of Lynchburg. Nevertheless, he became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying the city of Virginia Beach since it became an independent city in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Chesterfield or Stafford Counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and the first to do so without carrying James City County or the city of Chesapeake since Richard Nixon in 1968. This was the first presidential election in which the Republican candidate received more than 2 million votes in Virginia. Trump is the first Republican to win the popular vote without Virginia since 1924. This is also the first election since 2000 where Virginia voted for the popular vote loser.
In August 2024, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls.[2] [3] In October 2024, the Department of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, accusing that it violated the National Voter Registration Act.[4] [5] The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens.[5] [6] District judge Patricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed.[7] [6] The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order.[8] [9] The administration filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6-3 decision, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.[10]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[11] | June 12, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[12] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | August 27, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[14] | September 10, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[15] | September 15, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[16] | August 18, 2024 | |
| 538[17] | August 23, 2024 | ||
| NBC News[18] | October 6, 2024 | ||
| YouGov[19] | October 16, 2024 | ||
| Split Ticket[20] | November 1, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Undecided | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 2 - November 1, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.8% | 41.0% | 9.2% | Harris +8.8% | |
| 538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.9% | 43.7% | 6.4% | Harris +6.2% | |
| Silver Bulletin | through November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 49.5% | 43.2% | 7.3% | Harris +6.3% | |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.1% | 45.1% | 4.8% | Harris +5.0% | |
| Average | 49.8% | 43.3% | 6.9% | Harris +6.5% | |||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[21] | data-sort-value="2024-11-04" | November 3–4, 2024 | 2,202 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| Research Co.[22] | data-sort-value="2024-11-03" | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| ActiVote[23] | data-sort-value="2024-10-28" | October 2–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[24] | data-sort-value="2024-10-14" | October 24–25, 2024 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| CES/YouGov[25] | October 1–25, 2024 | 2,027 (A) | – | 53% | 44% | 3% | |
| 2,015 (LV) | 53% | 44% | 3% | ||||
| Quantus Insights (R)[26] | data-sort-value="2024-10-24" | October 22−24, 2024 | 725 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Braun Research[27] | October 19−23, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 42% | 9% | |
| 1,004 (LV) | 49% | 43% | 8% | ||||
| Christopher Newport University[28] | data-sort-value="2024-09-22" | September 28 − October 4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Emerson College[29] | September 22−24, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 44% | 4% | |
| 53% | 46% | 1% | |||||
| Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-09-18" | September 9−18, 2024 | 899 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[30] | data-sort-value="2024-09-22" | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| ActiVote[31] | data-sort-value="2024-09-17" | August 19 – September 17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Research America Inc.[32] | September 3−9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% | |
| 756 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 46% | 6% | |||
| Washington Post/Schar School[33] | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 43% | 6% | |
| 1,005 (LV) | 51% | 43% | 6% | ||||
| Morning Consult[34] | data-sort-value="2024-09-08" | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 873 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |||||||
| Quantus Insights (R)[35] | data-sort-value="2024-08-22" | August 20–22, 2024 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Democratic National Convention | |||||||
| Roanoke College[36] | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 10% | |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | |||||||
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Republican National Convention | |||||||
| Emerson College[37] | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% | |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[38] | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13% | |
| 265 (LV) | 43% | 47% | 10% | ||||
| attempted assassination of Donald Trump | |||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[39] | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | |
| 544 (LV) | 46% | 42% | 12% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[40] | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | 8% | |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% | |||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[41] | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 47% | 6% | |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | data-sort-value="2024-11-04" | November 3–4, 2024 | 2,202 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Chism Strategies[42] | October 28–30, 2024 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45.2% | 44.5% | – | 1.3% | 0.6% | 8.4% | |
| Cygnal (R)[43] | October 27–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% | |
| Roanoke College[44] | October 25–29, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[45] | September 16–25, 2024 | 832 (A) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 37% | 3% | 1% | – | 16% | |
| 762 (RV) | 47% | 37% | 2% | 1% | – | 13% | ||||
| Washington Post/Schar School | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 7% | |
| 1,005 (LV) | 50% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[46] | August 26 – September 6, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 36% | 2% | 1% | – | 15% | |
| 749 (RV) | 49% | 36% | 1% | 1% | – | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc. | September 3−9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 2% | − | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 756 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 46% | 2% | − | 0% | 0% | 6% | ||
| Roanoke College[47] | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 11% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 10% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (RV) | – | 40% | 41% | 7% | 12% |
| 265 (LV) | 41% | 45% | 5% | 9% | |||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 37% | 10% | 12% |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 38% | 10% | 9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% | ||
| 50% | 50% | – | ||||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (RV) | – | 41% | 44% | 15% | ||
| 265 (LV) | 44% | 44% | 12% | |||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | ||
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 42% | 11% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | 10% | ||
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R) | July 6–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | 9% | ||
| Fox News[48] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% | ||
| Roanoke College[49] | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | 16% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[50] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[51] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 16% | ||
| John Zogby Strategies[52] | data-sort-value="2024-05-01" | April 13–21, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% | |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[53] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 394 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% | ||
| 368 (LV) | 47% | 43% | 10% | |||||
| Roanoke College[54] | February 11–19, 2024 | 705 (A) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 10% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[55] | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% | ||
| Mason-Dixon[56] | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% | ||
| Roanoke College[57] | November 12–20, 2023 | 686 (A) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% | ||
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[58] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% | ||
| Research America Inc.[59] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | 26% | ||
| Roanoke College[60] | August 6–15, 2023 | 702 (A) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | 17% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[61] | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% | ||
| Roanoke College[62] | data-sort-value="2023-05-23" | May 14–23, 2023 | 678 (A) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% | |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[63] | data-sort-value="2023-05-09" | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% | |
| Roanoke College[64] | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 7% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 38% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 15% | ||
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 13% | ||||
| Virginia Commonwealth University[65] | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 36% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 13% | ||
| Fox News | data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 4% | |
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2024-05-29" | May 12–21, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 10% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (RV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | 15% | |
| 265 (LV) | 43% | 42% | 4% | 11% | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% | |
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 39% | 10% | 9% | |||
| co/efficient (R)[66] | data-sort-value="2024-06-13" | June 11–12, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Cornel West | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 40% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
| 37% | 37% | 5% | 21% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Nikki Haley | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | February 11–19, 2024 | 705 (A) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% | ||
| Research America Inc. | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 41% | 41% | 18% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-05-09" | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% | |
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Glenn Youngkin | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc. | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 34% | 29% | ||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 37% | 44% | 19% | ||
| Roanoke College | data-sort-value="2023-02-21" | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 55% | 6% |
Harris won 6 of 11 congressional districts.[67]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47% | 52% | Rob Wittman | ||||
| 49.1% | 49.3% | Jen Kiggans | ||||
| 66% | 32% | Bobby Scott | ||||
| 65% | 33% | Jennifer McClellan | ||||
| 43% | 55% | Bob Good (118th Congress | ||||
| John McGuire (119th Congress | ||||||
| 37% | 61% | Ben Cline | ||||
| 50% | 47% | Abigail Spanberger (118th Congress | ||||
| Eugene Vindman (119th Congress | ||||||
| 73% | 24% | Don Beyer | ||||
| 27% | 71% | Morgan Griffith | ||||
| 53% | 44% | Jennifer Wexton (118th Congress | ||||
| Suhas Subramanyam (119th Congress | ||||||
| 65% | 31% | Gerry Connolly |