See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee |
| Country: | Tennessee |
| Type: | presidential |
| College Voted: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Tennessee |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Donald Trump |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Image1: | Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Donald Trump |
| Home State1: | Florida |
| Running Mate1: | JD Vance |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,966,865 |
| Percentage1: | 64.19% |
| Electoral Vote1: | 11 |
| Nominee2: | Kamala Harris |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | California |
| Running Mate2: | Tim Walz |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,056,265 |
| Percentage2: | 34.47% |
| Electoral Vote2: | 0 |
| Time Zone: | CDT |
| Map Size: | 350px |
| Turnout: | 63.4% [1] |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee. However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot. Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
Tennessee voted for Trump by a wide margin in the election, with him winning the state by 29.7%. Trump received more than 1.96 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of Tennessee. This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in the state since 1972.
Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in Shelby and Davidson counties, home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and Knox County (Knoxville). Trump came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate and congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1972.
See main article: 2024 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary. The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
See main article: 2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary. The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report | December 19, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis | December 30, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNN | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist | June 12, 2024 | |
| 538 | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP | June 26, 2024 | ||
| NBC News | October 6, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | data-sort-value="2024-10-28" | October 5−28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 62% | 38% | – |
| ActiVote | September 24 – October 16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 62% | 38% | – | |
| ActiVote | July 26 – August 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 35% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 971 (LV) | 56% | 35% | 5% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-05-01" | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 6% |
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 60% | 31% | 9% | |
| 974 (LV) | 55% | 31% | 14% | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 216 (RV) | – | 58% | 34% | 8% | |
| 201 (LV) | 59% | 34% | 7% | ||||
| Targoz Market Research | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 61% | 30% | 9% | |
| 929 (LV) | 63% | 31% | 5% | ||||
| Siena College | November 5–10, 2023 | 805 (A) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 20% | 31% | |
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 59% | 29% | 12% | |
| 835 (LV) | 61% | 30% | 9% | ||||
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 410 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 22% | 23% | |
| Targoz Market Research | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 32% | 17% | |
| 1,046 (LV) | 54% | 34% | 11% | ||||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 42% | 26% | 31% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 28% | 7% | 10% |
| 962 (LV) | 58% | 28% | 5% | 9% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 16% |
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 25% | 16% | 11% |
| 974 (LV) | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% | |||
| Targoz Market Research | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,187 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 23% | 17% | 12% |
| 929 (LV) | 51% | 25% | 16% | 8% | |||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | November 14 – December 2, 2023 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 17% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 18% | 22% | 14% |
| 872 (LV) | 48% | 23% | 19% | 10% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Joe Manchin | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,118 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 21% | 5% | 22% |
| 844 (LV) | 53% | 23% | 6% | 18% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 32% | 22% | ||
| 977 (LV) | 52% | 36% | 11% | |||||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 33% | 24% | 40% |
Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2020, Trump had won it with 49.43% to Biden's 49.06%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.[2] [3]
| West | ~53% | ~46% | |
| Middle | ~63% | ~35% | |
| East | ~71% | ~28% |
Trump won 8 of 9 congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Fleischmann | ||||||
| Scott DesJarlais | ||||||
| Andy Ogles | ||||||
| David Kustoff | ||||||
| Steve Cohen |
| County[4] | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | ||||||||||||||||
| Anderson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bedford | |||||||||||||||||||
| Benton | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bledsoe | |||||||||||||||||||
| Blount | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bradley | |||||||||||||||||||
| Campbell | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cannon | |||||||||||||||||||
| Carroll | |||||||||||||||||||
| Carter | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cheatham | |||||||||||||||||||
| Chester | |||||||||||||||||||
| Claiborne | |||||||||||||||||||
| Clay | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cocke | |||||||||||||||||||
| Coffee | |||||||||||||||||||
| Crockett | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cumberland | |||||||||||||||||||
| Davidson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Decatur | |||||||||||||||||||
| DeKalb | |||||||||||||||||||
| Dickson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Dyer | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fayette | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fentress | |||||||||||||||||||
| Franklin | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gibson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Giles | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Greene | |||||||||||||||||||
| Grundy | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Hardin | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Henderson | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Hickman | |||||||||||||||||||
| Houston | |||||||||||||||||||
| Humphreys | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Lake | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Smith | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Williamson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Wilson | |||||||||||||||||||
| Totals | 1,966,865 | 64.19% | 1,056,265 | 34.47% | 40,812 | 1.34% | 910,600 | 29.72% | 3,063,942 | ||||||||||
In Tennessee, Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory, winning by a margin of 910,600 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennessee votes. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.[5]
Partisan clients