2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Country:Pennsylvania
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Next Year:2028
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance
Map Size:300px
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democratic in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Joe Biden — a native Pennsylvanian representing neighboring Delaware — by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, with most major news organizations marking it as a tossup.[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary. The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary was held on April 23, 2024.

General election

Trump rally shooting

See main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump. On July 13, 2024, Trump was injured in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.[3]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[4] July 9, 2024
align=left Inside Elections[5] May 8, 2024
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] July 3, 2024
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] Forecast suspendedJuly 18, 2024
align=left CNalysis[8] July 24, 2024
align=left CNN[9] July 24, 2024
align=left The Economist[10] August 15, 2024
RCP[11] August 15, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)[12] data-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 18–19, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%47%7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[13] data-sort-value="2024-08-17" August 13–17, 20241,312 (LV)–46%47%7%
Focaldata[14] data-sort-value="2024-08-16" August 6–16, 2024719 (LV)± 3.7%50%50%–
Cygnal (R)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%48%47%5%
Emerson CollegeAugust 13–14, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%51%–
Quinnipiac Universitydata-sort-value="2024-08-12" August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%50%47%3%
The Bullfinch Groupdata-sort-value="2024-08-11" August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%49%45%6%
New York Times/Siena College[15] August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.2%49%46%5%
693 (LV)± 4.2%50%46%4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[16] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" August 6–8, 20241,078 (LV)± 2.9%44%46%10%
Navigator Research (D)[17] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%48%6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[18] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 26 – August 8, 2024411 (LV)–49%48%3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[19] data-sort-value="2024-08-01" July 29 – August 1, 2024600 (LV)–48%48%4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[20] data-sort-value="2024-07-30" July 29–30, 2024627 (RV)± 3.9%47%48%5%
GQR Research (D)[21] data-sort-value="2024-07-30" July 26–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%46%4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[22] data-sort-value="2024-07-29" July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%48%45%7%
Quantus Polls and Newsdata-sort-value="2024-07-28" July 27–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%46%48%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[23] data-sort-value="2024-07-28" July 24–28, 2024804 (RV)± 4.0%46%50%4%
The Bullfinch Group[24] data-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 23–25, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%47%5%
Fox News[25] data-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%49%49%2%
Emerson College[26] July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%46%48%6%
850 (RV)± 3.3%49%51%–
July 21, 2024Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
North Star Opinion Research[27] data-sort-value="2024-06-20" July 20–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%9%
SoCal Research[28] data-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%50%4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[29] data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%40%47%13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[30] data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–45%51%4%
New York Times/Siena College[31] July 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%46%48%6%
872 (LV)± 3.7%47%48%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[32] data-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024812 (RV)± 3.0%43%50%7%
Emerson College[33] data-sort-value="2024-02-20" February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%49%11%
New York Times/Siena College[34] October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%44%47%9%
600 (LV)± 4.6%44%48%8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Chase
Oliver
Other /
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[35] data-sort-value="2024-08-17" August 13–17, 20241,312 (LV)–46%45%5%0%1%–3%
Focaldata[36] August 6–16, 2024719 (LV)± 3.7%48%47%4%–0%0%1%
719 (RV)± 3.7%49%46%4%–0%0%1%
719 (A)± 3.7%47%47%4%–0%0%2%
Cygnal (R)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%43%44%5%2%2%0%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[37] data-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 12–15, 2024825 (LV)–46%44%4%–0%0%6%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-08-14" August 13–14, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%47%3%0%0%0%3%
Quinnipiac Universitydata-sort-value="2024-08-12" August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%48%45%4%–0%0%3%
The Bullfinch Groupdata-sort-value="2024-08-11" August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%45%41%6%2%0%–6%
Franklin & Marshall Collegedata-sort-value="2024-08-12" July 21 – August 11, 2024920 (RV)± 3.8%46%43%6%–1%1%3%
New York Times/Siena College[38] August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.2%45%43%5%0%2%1%5%
693 (LV)± 4.2%46%44%4%0%1%1%3%
Navigator Research (D)[39] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%44%46%5%1%1%1%2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[40] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 26 – August 8, 2024411 (LV)–48%43%5%0%0%–4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41] data-sort-value="2024-08-03" July 31 – August 3, 2024743 (LV)–44%46%3%–0%0%7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-07-28" July 24–28, 2024804 (RV)± 4.0%44%46%3%–1%4%2%
The Bullfinch Groupdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 23–25, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%44%44%6%–1%1%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42] data-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 2024851 (LV)–42%46%5%–0%0%7%
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%45%43%7%1%1%–3%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%44%46%3%1%1%0%5%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Public Policy Polling (D)[43] data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%43%45%4%–2%–6%
New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%40%42%7%0%3%–8%
872 (LV)± 3.7%42%43%6%0%2%–7%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)data-sort-value="2024-08-01" July 29 – August 1, 2024600 (LV)–45%45%4%6%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[44] data-sort-value="2024-07-28" July 22–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%43%3%7%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Civiqs[45] data-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 13–16, 2024536 (RV)± 4.7%44%46%5%5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
SoCal Researchdata-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%50%4%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%44%49%7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%45%49%6%
Emerson College[46] data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%48%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–44%47%9%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[47] data-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 5–12, 20241,041 (LV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%44%48%8%
872 (LV)± 3.7%45%48%7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[48] data-sort-value="2024-07-06" July 1–5, 2024794 (RV)± 3.0%44%51%5%
Emerson College[49] data-sort-value="2024-07-08" June 30 – July 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%48%9%
Remington Research Group (R)[50] data-sort-value="2024-07-03" June 29 – July 1, 2024673 (LV)± 4.0%43%48%9%
Cygnal (R)[51] data-sort-value="2024-07-01" June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%44%48%8%
Commonwealth Foundation[52] data-sort-value="2024-07-01" June 14–19, 2024800 (RV)± 3.46%45%44%12%
Emerson College[53] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%51%–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[54] May 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%43%45%12%
923 (LV)± 3.1%45%47%8%
KAConsulting (R)[55] data-sort-value="2024-07-08" May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)–44%44%12%
Prime Group[56] data-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 9–16, 2024487 (RV)–51%49%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024812 (RV)± 3.0%46%48%6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[57] data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%45%48%7%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[58] April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%44%47%9%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%45%48%7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[59] data-sort-value="2024-05-07" April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%45%49%6%
Emerson College[60] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%51%–
CBS News/YouGov[61] data-sort-value="2024-04-18" April 19–25, 20241,288 (LV)± 3.1%49%50%1%
Muhlenberg College[62] data-sort-value="2024-05-07" April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%41%44%15%
Fox News[63] data-sort-value="2024-04-18" April 11–16, 20241,141 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[64] data-sort-value="2024-04-24" April 8–15, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%46%47%7%
The Bullfinch Group[65] data-sort-value="2024-04-19" March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%38%44%18%
Franklin & Marshall College[66] data-sort-value="2024-04-04" March 20–31, 2024870 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%14%
Wall Street Journal[67] data-sort-value="2024-04-02" March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Echelon Insights[68] data-sort-value="2024-04-15" March 12–19, 2024400 (LV)± 5.5%45%49%6%
CNN/SSRS[69] data-sort-value="2024-03-22" March 13–18, 20241,132 (RV)± 3.8%46%46%8%
Emerson College[70] March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%47%10%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] data-sort-value="2024-03-26" March 8–12, 2024807 (RV)± 3.0%45%45%10%
Fox News[72] data-sort-value="2024-03-13" March 7–11, 20241,149 (RV)± 3.0%47%49%4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[73] data-sort-value="2024-03-25" February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%50%45%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] data-sort-value="2024-02-29" February 12–20, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-20" February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%45%12%
Chism Strategies[75] data-sort-value="2024-02-09" February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%32%40%28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[76] January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%10%
Franklin & Marshall College[77] data-sort-value="2024-02-01" January 17–28, 2024507 (RV)± 5.0%43%42%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[78] data-sort-value="2024-01-31" January 16–21, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%45%48%7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[79] data-sort-value="2024-01-23" January 15–21, 2024745 (RV)± 3.7%47%39%14%
Quinnipiac University[80] data-sort-value="2024-01-04" January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%49%46%5%
The Bullfinch Group[81] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" December 14–18, 2023600 (RV)± 4.0%45%45%10%
Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[82] data-sort-value="2024-01-08" December 3–7, 2023(RVs)–40%46%14%
Muhlenberg College[83] data-sort-value="2023-12-19" November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%42%41%17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" November 27 – December 6, 2023799 (RV)± 3.0%44%46%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[85] data-sort-value="2023-11-09" October 30 – November 7, 2023805 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
Emerson College[86] October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
816 (LV)–45%49%6%
New York Times/Siena Collegedata-sort-value="2023-11-5" October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%44%48%8%
Franklin & Marshall College[87] data-sort-value="2023-10-26" October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%44%42%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[88] data-sort-value="2023-10-19" October 5–10, 2023807 (RV)± 3.0%45%46%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[89] data-sort-value="2023-10-15" October 7–9, 2023900 (LV)–43%42%15%
Emerson College[90] data-sort-value="2023-10-11" October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%36%45%19%
Quinnipiac University[91] data-sort-value="2023-06-26" September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%45%47%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[92] data-sort-value="2023-06-26" September 25–26, 2023673 (RV)± 3.8%48%45%7%
Prime Group[93] June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–50%50%–
500 (RV)–38%43%19%
Quinnipiac University[94] data-sort-value="2023-06-26" June 22–26, 20231,584 (RV)± 2.5%46%47%7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[95] data-sort-value="2023-04-13" April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%46%42%12%
Franklin & Marshall College[96] data-sort-value="2023-04-07" March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 4.9%36%35%29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[97] data-sort-value="2023-02-26" February 19–26, 2023800 (RV)± 3.2%48%41%11%
Targoz Market Research[98] data-sort-value="2022-11-06" November 2–6, 2022631 (LV)± 3.8%46%52%2%
Emerson College[99] data-sort-value="2022-10-31" October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%44%44%12%
Emerson College[100] data-sort-value="2022-09-26" September 23–26, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%45%46%9%
Echelon Insights[101] data-sort-value="2022-09-07" August 31 – September 7, 2022828 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%9%
Emerson College[102] data-sort-value="2022-08-23" August 22–23, 20221,034 (LV)± 3.0%42%47%11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[103] data-sort-value="2022-07-24" July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%42%44%14%
Blueprint Polling (D)[104] data-sort-value="2022-07-21" July 19–21, 2022712 (LV)± 3.7%42%41%17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[105] data-sort-value="2022-02-16" February 15–16, 2022635 (LV)± 3.9%45%40%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[106] data-sort-value="2021-11-16" November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%46%4%1%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 5–12, 20241,041 (LV)± 3.0%42%46%6%1%2%3%
YouGov[107] data-sort-value="2024-07-15" July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.4%40%43%3%1%1%12%
New York Times/Siena CollegeJuly 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%38%41%8%0%2%11%
872 (LV)± 3.7%40%42%7%0%2%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-07-06" July 1–5, 2024794 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%7%1%1%6%
Cygnal (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-01" June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%38%42%9%2%2%7%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%45%5%0%1%12%
Marist College[108] data-sort-value="2024-06-12" June 3–6, 20241,181 (RV)± 3.6%45%47%3%1%1%3%
KAConsulting (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-08" May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)–39%41%9%1%3%7%
Prime Groupdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 9–16, 2024487 (RV)–45%42%9%2%2%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024812 (RV)± 3.0%42%45%7%2%1%3%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%40%43%7%2%2%6%
New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia InquirerApril 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%36%40%10%0%1%13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%37%41%9%0%1%12%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-04-30" April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%45%6%1%1%7%
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-04-18" April 11–16, 20241,141 (RV)± 3.0%42%44%8%1%2%3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-04-24" April 8–15, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%42%43%8%0%1%6%
Wall Street Journaldata-sort-value="2024-04-02" March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%38%41%7%3%1%10%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-03-14" March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%44%5%1%1%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-03-26" March 8–12, 2024807 (RV)± 3.0%38%44%7%0%1%10%
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-03-13" March 7–11, 20241,149 (RV)± 3.0%42%42%9%2%2%3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-02-29" February 12–20, 2024803 (RV)± 3.0%36%45%8%1%1%9%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-20" February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%42%8%2%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109] data-sort-value="2024-01-31" January 16–21, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%40%43%7%1%1%8%
Quinnipiac Universitydata-sort-value="2023-12-14" January 4–8, 20231,680 (RV)± 2.4%41%39%11%2%4%3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" November 27 – December 6, 2023799 (RV)± 3.0%38%39%9%1%1%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%42%46%4%2%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111] data-sort-value="2024-05-13" May 2–4, 2024635 (LV)–41%43%7%0%9%
Franklin & Marshall Collegedata-sort-value="2024-04-04" March 20–31, 2024870 (RV)± 4.0%42%40%9%3%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112] data-sort-value="2024-03-25" March 14–17, 2024775 (LV)–41%44%7%1%7%
Franklin & Marshall Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-01" January 17–28, 2024494 (RV)± 5.0%42%37%8%2%11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Other /
Undecided
Civiqsdata-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 13–16, 2024536 (RV)± 4.7%42%46%6%6%
1983 Labs[113] data-sort-value="2024-07-03" June 28–30, 2024741 (LV)± 3.6%41%46%3%10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%41%39%8%12%
923 (LV)± 3.1%43%42%7%8%
Muhlenberg Collegedata-sort-value="2024-05-07" April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%35%35%18%12%
The Bullfinch Group[114] data-sort-value="2024-04-9" March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%7%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] data-sort-value="2024-01-08" December 28–30, 20231,069 (LV)–39%40%9%12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116] data-sort-value="2023-12-05" November 27–29, 2023887 (LV)–37%44%7%10%
New York Times/Siena College[117] data-sort-value="2023-10-15" October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (LV)± 4.635%35%23%7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2023-10-15" October 7–9, 2023900 (LV)–39%39%9%13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRSdata-sort-value="2024-03-22" March 13–18, 20241,132 (RV)± 3.8%38%40%16%4%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] data-sort-value="2023-11-09" October 30 – November 7, 2023805 (RV)± 3.0%38%41%8%1%12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–42%51%7%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-20" February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%33%48%19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–42%50%8%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Shapiro
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%54%44%2%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–47%46%7%
Muhlenberg College[119] data-sort-value="2023-12-19" November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%48%37%15%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Nikki
Haley
Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg Collegedata-sort-value="2023-12-19" November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%33%38%29%
New York Times/Siena College[120] data-sort-value="2023-11-05" October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%39%49%12%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Ron
DeSantis
Other /
Undecided
Muhlenberg Collegedata-sort-value="2023-12-19" November 20 – December 13, 2023421 (RV)± 6.0%41%39%20%
New York Times/Siena Collegedata-sort-value="2023-11-05" October 22 – November 3, 2023600 (RV)± 4.6%43%47%10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[121] data-sort-value="2023-05-08" May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%48%39%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)data-sort-value="2023-04-13" April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%45%13%
Echelon Insightsdata-sort-value="2022-09-07" August 31 – September 7, 2022828 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . August 20, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: 270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map . 2024-03-09 . 270toWin.com.
  3. Web site: Trump injured in shooting at Pennsylvania rally. Jeremy. Herb. Jeff. Zeleny. Holmes. Lybrand. Evan. Perez. CNN. Warner Bros. Discovery. July 13, 2024 . July 13, 2024 .
  4. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  5. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  6. Web site: June 29, 2023. June 10, 2024 . 2024 Electoral College ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  7. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  8. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  9. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  10. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . August 15, 2024 . en.
  11. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  12. Web site: PollingPlus Exclusive: InsiderAdvantage Survey of Pennsylvania. August 19, 2024. PollingPlus.
  13. Web site: No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention. Jonathan. Draeger. August 18, 2024. RealClearPolling.
  14. Web site: Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll. Chalfant . Morgan . Sarlin . Benjy. August 19, 2024. Semafor.
  15. News: Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Pennsylvania. The New York Times . August 10, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  16. Web site: Pennsylvania Statewide Presidential Survey - August 2024.
  17. Web site: Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground. Russell . Rachael . August 20, 2024. Navigator Research.
  18. Web site: The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President. Amy. Walter. August 14, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  19. Web site: x.com.
  20. Web site: Trump edges out Harris in Arizona, Pennsylvania but lags in Georgia in new polling. Caroline. Vakil. July 30, 2024.
  21. Web site: Kenyatta Public Memo 08012024_proofed | PDF | Republican Party (United States) | American Government. Scribd.
  22. Web site: Public Opinion Strategies (R). .
  23. News: Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump's Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat. Bloomberg . July 30, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  24. Web site: New Swing State Poll: PA Voters Evenly Divided, Presidential Election a Toss Up. July 26, 2024. Commonwealth Foundation.
  25. Web site: Fox News Poll: Harris, Trump tied in Pennsylvania. Victoria. Balara. July 26, 2024. Fox News.
  26. Web site: July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin. Camille. Mumford. July 25, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  27. Web site: North Star Opinion Research.
  28. Web site: SoCal Research Pennsylvania Poll.pdf. Google Docs.
  29. Web site: Three More Battleground Polls: Trump Leads in PA, NV, AZ; No Post-Shooting Bump, but Large Enthusiasm Gap; Harris Trails Trump – InsiderAdvantage.
  30. Web site: PAF Swing State Poll Democrats v Trump.pdf. Google Docs.
  31. News: Biden Facing Challenges in Two Must-Win States, Times/Siena Polls Find. Adam. Nagourney. Ruth. Igielnik. The New York Times . July 15, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  32. News: Half of Swing-State Voters Fear Violence Around US Election. Bloomberg . May 22, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  33. Web site: Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Trump at 45%, Biden at 43%. Camille. Mumford. February 20, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  34. Web site: Trump Leads Biden in Nearly Every Battleground State, New Poll Finds …. November 6, 2023. archive.ph.
  35. Web site: No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention. Jonathan. Draeger. August 18, 2024. RealClearPolling.
  36. Web site: Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll. Chalfant . Morgan . Sarlin . Benjy. August 19, 2024. Semafor.
  37. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024). August 19, 2024.
  38. News: Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Pennsylvania. The New York Times . August 10, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  39. Web site: Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground. Russell . Rachael . August 20, 2024. Navigator Research.
  40. Web site: The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President. Amy. Walter. August 14, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  41. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024). August 6, 2024.
  42. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024). July 25, 2024.
  43. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)
  44. Web site: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R).
  45. Web site: Civiqs.
  46. Web site: July 2024 Swing State Polls. Camille. Mumford. July 18, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  47. Web site: Toplines 2 - Heartland - Battleground July 2024 - ALL RACE DATA - Rasmussen Reports®. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  48. News: Biden Narrows Gap With Trump in Swing States Despite Debate Loss. Bloomberg . July 6, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  49. Web site: Biden lags behind in all of the key battleground states by 4-point average: new poll. Ryan. King. July 8, 2024.
  50. Web site: Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate. July 3, 2024. www.dailywire.com.
  51. Web site: Pennsylvania Poll: First Fielded Straddling the Debate – Trump with Strong Lead and McCormick within Striking Distance of Casey. Ryan. Shucard. July 1, 2024. Cygnal.
  52. Web site: Commonwealth Foundation.
  53. Web site: June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden. Camille. Mumford. June 20, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  54. Web site: Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University.
  55. Web site: KAConsulting (R).
  56. Web site: Prime Group.
  57. Web site: A Unique Election Driven by a Traditional Issue. May 24, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  58. News: Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden. Nate. Cohn. The New York Times . May 13, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  59. Web site: Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D).
  60. Web site: Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls. Camille. Mumford. April 30, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  61. Web site: CBS News poll finds Biden-Trump race tight in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin - CBS News. Anthony. Salvanto. Kabir. Khanna. Jennifer De. Pinto. May 30, 2024. www.cbsnews.com.
  62. Web site: Muhlenberg College.
  63. Web site: Fox News Poll: Biden, Trump in dead heat in 2024 Pennsylvania rematch. Victoria. Balara. April 18, 2024. Fox News.
  64. News: Biden's Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows. Bloomberg . April 24, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  65. Web site: The Bullfinch Group.
  66. Web site: F&M Poll: Pennsylvania Moving in More Positive Direction. April 5, 2024.
  67. Web site: Wall Street Journal.
  68. Web site: Echelon Insights.
  69. Web site: DocumentCloud. www.documentcloud.org.
  70. Web site: Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Trump 47%, Biden 43%. Camille. Mumford. March 14, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  71. News: Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows. Bloomberg . March 26, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  72. Web site: Fox News Poll: Pennsylvania looks headed for another tight race in 2024. Victoria. Balara. March 13, 2024. Fox News.
  73. Web site: Susquehanna Polling & Research.
  74. News: Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous, Swing-State Poll Shows. Bloomberg . February 29, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  75. Web site: Would a Taylor Swift endorsement help Biden?. Brannon. Miller. February 9, 2024.
  76. Web site: Memo: McCormick Down to Casey But Far From Out. February 29, 2024.
  77. Web site: Franklin & Marshall College.
  78. News: Trump Risks Losing More Than Half of Swing-State Voters If Found Guilty. Bloomberg . January 31, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  79. Web site: Susquehanna Polling & Research.
  80. Web site: Quinnipiac University.
  81. Web site: 2023 Arizona and Pennsylvania RVs. Google Docs.
  82. https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-NV-PA-NY-CDs-Report.pdf Change Research/Future Majority (D)
  83. Web site: 2023 - December PA Presidential Election Survey. Muhlenberg College.
  84. News: Biden Forgave Billions in Student Debt. Poll Shows It's Not Enough For Gen Z. Bloomberg . December 14, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  85. News: Biden's Focus Is on Foreign Conflicts, But Swing-State Voter Worries Are Closer to Home. Bloomberg . November 9, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  86. Web site: Swing State 2024 Polling: Biden Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Leads Trump in Michigan. Camille. Mumford. November 9, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  87. Web site: Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: October 2023. October 26, 2023. Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
  88. News: Trump Is Winning Over Swing-State Voters Wary of Biden's Economic Plan. Bloomberg . October 19, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  89. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (7-9 October 2023). October 15, 2023.
  90. Web site: Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Young Voters Hesitant to Support Biden but Stick With Sen. Casey. Camille. Mumford. October 11, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  91. Web site: Quinnipiac University.
  92. Web site: NEW POLLING: Biden Leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; Impeachment of Biden Unpopular with Voters. September 28, 2023.
  93. Web site: Prime Group.
  94. Web site: Quinnipiac University Poll . October 4, 2023 . October 6, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231006015113/https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa10042023_pthi25.pdf . dead .
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  96. Web site: Franklin & Marshall Poll Release April 2023. April 13, 2023. Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
  97. Web site: Early 2024 poll shows DeSantis leading Trump among Pa. Republican voters. J. D. Prose |. jdprose@pennlive.com. March 2, 2023. pennlive.
  98. Web site: Pennsylvania Poll: Oz Leads Fetterman. November 7, 2022. PollSmart MR.
  99. Web site: Pennsylvania 2022: Oz and Fetterman in Two-Point Race; Half of Voters Say Senate Debate Worsened Their Opinion of Fetterman. Camille. Mumford. November 3, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  100. Web site: Pennsylvania 2022: Fetterman's Lead Shrinks in US Senate Race; Shapiro's Lead Expands For Governor's Seat. Camille. Mumford. September 29, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  101. Web site: New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech. Krista. Chavez. September 13, 2022. NetChoice.
  102. Web site: Pennsylvania 2022: Fetterman Holds Four-Point Lead Over Oz for US Senate; Shapiro Leads Mastriano by Three. Camille. Mumford. August 25, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  103. https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/crostabs_07282022.pdf PEM Management Corporation (R)
  104. https://blueprintpolling.com/2022/07/26/democratic-nominees-for-pa-governor-and-senate-enjoy-early-lead-while-biden-fades/ Blueprint Polling (D)
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  106. Web site: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R). .
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  108. Web site: Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More. maristpoll.marist.edu.
  109. https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf Bloomberg/Morning Consult
  110. Web site: Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
  111. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (2-4 May 2024). May 13, 2024.
  112. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024). March 25, 2024.
  113. Web site: 1983 Labs.
  114. https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Common-Ground-in-the-Commonwealth-Q1-2024-Survey-Analysis-Updated.pdf The Bullfinch Group
  115. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023). January 8, 2024.
  116. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27-29 November 2023). December 5, 2023.
  117. News: What's Behind Kennedy's Poll Numbers? Voters Dread a Trump-Biden Rematch.. Reid J.. Epstein. Ruth. Igielnik. Camille. Baker. The New York Times . November 7, 2023. NYTimes.com.
  118. Web site: Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
  119. Web site: Muhlenberg College.
  120. News: Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds. The New York Times . November 5, 2023. NYTimes.com.
  121. Web site: x.com.

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