2024 United States presidential election in Oregon explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Oregon
Country:Oregon
Type:Presidential
College Voted:no
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Oregon
Next Year:2028
Turnout:75% (7 pp)
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance
Popular Vote1:1,240,600
Popular Vote2:919,480
Percentage1:55.27%
Percentage2:40.97%
Electoral Vote1:8
Electoral Vote2:0

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.

Harris carried Oregon by 14.3%. Oregon shifted rightward by 1.78 points in this election, as Biden had won Oregon by 16.1% in 2020. This was in contrast to Harris significantly underperforming Biden in many other blue states, including her home state of California.

Primary elections

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Oregon Republican presidential primary.

The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Oregon Democratic presidential primary.

The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.

Minor parties

Minor parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:

Minor Party Nominations in Oregon
Party Candidate
Chase Oliver
Randall Terry

The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.

General election

Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates. Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.

In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political ReportDecember 19, 2023
align=left Inside ElectionsApril 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallJune 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The HillAugust 26, 2024
align=left CNalysisDecember 30, 2023
align=left The EconomistSeptember 12, 2024
538October 23, 2024
NBC NewsOctober 6, 2024
YouGovOctober 16, 2024
Split TicketNovember 1, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-10-17" October 16–17, 2024716 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%6%
Hoffman Researchdata-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 24–26, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%49%44%7%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch GroupApril 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%52%40%8%
John Zogby Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-05-01" April 13–21, 2024419 (LV)47%44%9%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2022-11-01" October 31 – November 1, 2022975 (LV)± 3.1%51%35%14%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2022-10-01" September 30 – October 1, 2022796 (LV)± 3.4%50%41%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Results

By county

CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Baker2,34324.17%7,06072.83%2913.00%-4,717-48.66%9,694
Benton33,90967.50%14,18728.24%2,1364.25%19,72239.26%50,232
Clackamas130,58053.03%106,38743.20%9,2733.77%24,1939.83%246,240
Clatsop12,53353.81%9,91342.56%8443.62%2,62011.25%23,290
Columbia12,89541.15%17,22754.98%1,2123.87%-4,332-13.83%31,334
Coos13,73138.42%20,84958.34%1,1553.23%-7,118-19.92%35,735
Crook3,83623.54%12,01273.71%4492.76%-8,176-50.17%16,297
Curry5,73740.40%8,00056.34%4633.26%-2,263-15.94%14,200
Deschutes68,10853.47%54,85043.06%4,4173.47%13,25810.41%127,375
Douglas18,38629.75%41,56167.24%1,8603.01%-23,175-37.49%61,807
Gilliam29125.66%80570.99%383.35%-514-45.33%1,134
Grant81618.31%3,49078.32%1503.37%-2,674-60.01%4,456
Harney79718.73%3,30777.72%1513.55%-2,510-58.99%4,255
Hood River8,36465.82%3,85430.33%4893.85%4,51035.49%12,707
Jackson54,06545.22%61,74351.64%3,7643.15%-7,678-6.42%119,572
Jefferson3,94133.54%7,45463.44%3553.02%-3,513-29.90%11,750
Josephine16,92834.11%31,12962.72%1,5713.17%-14,201-28.61%49,628
Klamath9,85627.75%24,67569.48%9842.77%-14,819-41.73%35,515
Lake68116.16%3,42181.20%1112.63%-2,740-65.04%4,213
Lane125,77559.53%77,37636.62%8,1343.85%48,39922.91%211,285
Lincoln17,11257.42%11,64539.07%1,0473.51%5,46718.35%29,804
Linn25,74936.05%43,07860.31%2,6023.64%-17,329-24.26%71,429
Malheur2,88426.35%7,71070.44%3513.21%-4,826-44.09%10,945
Marion73,97047.21%77,08949.20%5,6323.59%-3,119-1.99%156,691
Morrow1,13824.05%3,40872.02%1863.93%-2,270-47.97%4,732
Multnomah325,92778.68%70,75917.08%17,5644.24%255,16861.60%414,250
Polk22,03446.30%23,76849.94%1,7913.76%-1,734-3.64%47,593
Sherman23320.03%89076.53%403.44%-657-56.50%1,163
Tillamook7,74747.67%7,97149.05%5343.29%-224-1.38%16,252
Umatilla9,25129.63%20,97367.17%1,0013.21%-11,722-37.54%31,225
Union4,10728.18%9,94268.22%5253.60%-5,835-40.04%14,574
Wallowa1,57330.79%3,36665.90%1693.31%-1,793-35.11%5,108
Wasco6,06945.32%6,83751.06%4853.62%-768-5.74%13,391
Washington193,01364.78%92,59031.08%12,3464.14%100,42333.70%297,949
Wheeler21024.19%61871.20%404.61%-408-47.01%868
Yamhill26,01145.00%29,53651.10%2,2533.90%-3,525-6.10%57,800
Totals1,240,60055.27%919,48040.97%84,4133.76%321,12014.30%2,244,493

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Harris won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[1]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
66.76%29.16%Suzanne Bonamici
34.90%61.96%Cliff Bentz
70.73%25.12%Earl Blumenauer (118th Congress)
Maxine Dexter (119th Congress)
54.14%42.16%Val Hoyle
52.49%43.83%Lori Chavez-DeRemer (118th Congress)
Janelle Bynum (119th Congress)
53.75%42.45%Andrea Salinas

Analysis

Trump flipped back Marion County, after losing it in 2020 but winning it in 2016. He also became the first Republican to win the White House without winning Deschutes County since it was created in 1916.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. 2024 Pres by CD . docs.google.com .