See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio |
| Country: | Ohio |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Ohio |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Image1: | Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Donald Trump |
| Home State1: | Florida |
| Running Mate1: | JD Vance |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Kamala Harris |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | California |
| Running Mate2: | Tim Walz |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A heavily populated Midwestern state located mainly in the Rust Belt, and the southern portion of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now considered a moderately red state. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years.
The GOP's success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the possible death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions. On the presidential level, Ohio is widely expected to be won by the Republican ticket in the November 2024 election, consisting of Trump and Ohio U.S. senator JD Vance as his running mate.[2] Vance's selection has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Trump supporters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3]
The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.
See main article: 2024 Ohio Democratic presidential primary. The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
See main article: 2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary. The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[4] | December 19, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[5] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | June 13, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[8] | December 30, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNN[9] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[10] | July 19, 2024 | |
| 538[11] | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP[12] | June 26, 2024 |
Due to the Democratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurs more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate to the office, under ordinary rules the eventual Democratic nominee would be disqualified from the ballot.[13] [14] Efforts to create an emergency fix had stalled in the Ohio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8.[15] On May 21, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and the Ohio Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party does not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee will not be listed on the November ballot.[16]
On May 23, Governor Mike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state Senate, with DeWine's support, hope to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state. Ohio Democratic Party chair Elizabeth Walters and state House minority leader Allison Russo have signaled their opposition to the ban, which has been described as a poison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered.[17]
After the state legislature appeared unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced on May 28 that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, will take place two weeks before the 2024 Democratic National Convention in order to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline.[18] Nonetheless, the Ohio legislature passed a bill on June 1 extending the deadline to August 23,[19] which DeWine signed on June 2.[20] The law will not take effect until September 1.[21]
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Other / Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[22] | data-sort-value="2024-08-17" | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% | |||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[23] | data-sort-value="2024-07-28" | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% | |||
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| Ohio Northern University[24] < | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% | ||
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[25] | data-sort-value="2024-08-17" | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | data-sort-value="2024-07-28" | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 9% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[26] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% | ||
| National Public Affairs[27] | data-sort-value=2024-06-05 | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – | ||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28] | data-sort-value=2024-03-16 | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% | |
| Emerson College[29] | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 55% | 45% | – | ||
| Emerson College[30] | data-sort-value="2024-02-01" | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17% | ||
| Emerson College/WJW-TV[31] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% | ||
| Data for Progress (D)[32] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% | ||
| Ohio Northern University[33] | data-sort-value="2023-10-30" | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15% | ||
| Emerson College[34] | data-sort-value="2023-10-10" | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% | ||
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[35] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% | |||
| Ohio Northern University[36] < | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% | |
| Targoz Market Research[37] | data-sort-value="2022-11-06" | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% | ||
| Emerson College[38] | data-sort-value="2022-11-01" | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% | ||
| Ohio Northern University/Lucid[39] | data-sort-value="2022-10-15" | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% | ||
| Emerson College[40] | data-sort-value="2022-10-07" | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% | ||
| Emerson College[41] | data-sort-value="2022-09-13" | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% | ||
| Echelon Insights[42] | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% | ||
| Emerson College[43] | data-sort-value="2022-08-16" | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% | ||
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[44] | data-sort-value="2022-07-24" | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[45] | data-sort-value="2024-06-11" | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||
| National Public Affairs | data-sort-value=2024-06-05 | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% | – | ||
| East Carolina University[46] | data-sort-value="2024-03-15" | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Robert F Kennedy Jr. | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2024-03-13" | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% | |
| Ohio Northern University[47] | data-sort-value="2023-10-30" | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Cornel West | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% | |||
| Suffolk University[48] | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nikki Haley | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | data-sort-value="2023-10-30" | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | data-sort-value="2023-10-30" | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2022-10-07" | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2022-09-13" | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% | ||
| Echelon Insights | data-sort-value="2022-09-07" | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mike Pence | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | data-sort-value="2023-10-30" | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24% | |||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | data-sort-value="2023-07-26" | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
Partisan clients