2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
Country:New Hampshire
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
Next Year:2028
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance
Map Size:300px
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A rural New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in almost every presidential election since the party's formation up until 1988, except for nationwide landslides by Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2000.

New Hampshire is a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election which is expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, most news organizations generally consider the state to be favoring Kamala Harris in 2024.[2]

Primary elections

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[3]

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[4] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[5] [6]

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[7] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[8]

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political Report[9] July 9, 2024
align=left Inside Elections[10] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] August 7, 2024
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[13] August 5, 2024
align=left CNN[14] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[15] August 15, 2024
538[16] June 14, 2024
RCP[17] August 15, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Undecided
Margin
RealClearPoliticsJuly 24 – August 19, 2024August 21, 202450.7%45.7%3.6%Harris +5.0
270ToWinJuly 22 – August 21, 2024August 21, 202448.0%44.3%7.7%Harris +3.7
Average49.4%45.0%5.6%Harris +4.4
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[18] data-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%52%47%1%
Emerson College[19] July 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%46%4%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
University of New Hampshire[20] data-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%53%46%1%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
The Trafalgar Group (R)[21] data-sort-value="2021-12-12" December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Chase
Oliver
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] data-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%50%43%4%0%0%3%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-28" July 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%6%0%1%4%
Saint Anselm College[23] data-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 24–25, 20242,083 (RV)± 2.1%50%44%3%0%0%0%3%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshiredata-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%49%43%4%8%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
NHJournal/Praecones Analytica[24] data-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 19–21, 2024601 (V)39%40%21%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[25] data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%52%48%
Marist College[26] data-sort-value="2024-01-19" January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%52%45%3%
Emerson College[27] data-sort-value="2023-11-15" November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%47%42%11%
University of New Hampshire/CNN[28] data-sort-value="2023-08-11" September 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%52%40%8%
Emerson College[29] data-sort-value="2023-08-11" August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%48%41%11%
Saint Anselm College[30] data-sort-value="2023-06-23" June 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Emerson College[31] data-sort-value="2023-03-05" March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%38%20%
co/efficient[32] data-sort-value="2023-01-26" January 25–26, 20231,179 (LV)± 3.2%40%39%21%
Emerson College[33] data-sort-value="2022-11-01" October 30 – November 1, 2022850 (LV)± 3.3%45%41%14%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[34] data-sort-value="2022-10-25" October 14–25, 2022600 (LV)± 5.1%49%43%8%
Emerson College[35] data-sort-value="2022-10-19" October 18–19, 2022727 (LV)± 3.6%44%43%13%
Emerson College[36] data-sort-value="2022-09-15" September 14–15, 2022800 (LV)± 3.4%46%43%11%
University of New Hampshire[37] data-sort-value="2022-06-20" June 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%50%43%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)data-sort-value="2021-12-12" December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%
Saint Anselm College[38] data-sort-value="2021-05-10" May 7–10, 20211,267 (RV)± 2.8%50%43%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Saint Anselm College[39] data-sort-value="2024-07-01" June 28–29, 20241,746 (RV)± 2.3%42%44%4%1%1%8%
University of New Hampshiredata-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%44%41%3%1%2%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Other /
Undecided
NHJournal/Praecones Analyticadata-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 19–21, 2024601 (V)39%40%21%
NHJournal/Praecones Analytica[40] data-sort-value="2024-05-21" May 15–20, 2024862 (RV)± 3.3%37%37%15%11%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[41] data-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 6–14, 2024600 (LV)± 5.2%42%36%11%11%
Marist Collegedata-sort-value="2024-01-19" January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%44%41%12%3%
Saint Anselm College[42] data-sort-value="2023-11-15" December 18–19, 20231,711 (LV)± 3.9%49%39%8%4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Nikki
Haley
Other /Undecided
Marist Collegedata-sort-value="2024-01-19" January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%44%47%9%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2023-11-15" November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%39%45%16%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Ron
DeSantis
OtherUndecided
Marist Collegedata-sort-value="2024-01-19" January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%51%42%7%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2023-11-15" November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%46%38%16%
University of New Hampshire/CNNdata-sort-value="2023-08-11" September 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%50%33%15%5%
Saint Anselm Collegedata-sort-value="2023-06-23" June 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%102%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2023-03-05" March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%14%7%
University of New Hampshiredata-sort-value="2022-06-20" June 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott

Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Chris
Sununu
OtherUndecided
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2023-03-05" March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%36%44%14%6%
co/efficientdata-sort-value="2023-01-26" January 25–26, 20231,179 (LV)± 3.15%36%48%16%
Praecones Analytica[43] data-sort-value="2022-04-16" April 14–16, 2022503 (RV)± 4.6%36%53%12%

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . August 20, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: 270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map . 2024-02-21 . 270toWin.com.
  3. Web site: 2023-11-15 . New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date . 2023-11-15 . HuffPost . en.
  4. Web site: New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes. February 3, 2023. CBS News. O'Keefe, Ed. Novak, Analisa. February 5, 2023. February 5, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230205083405/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-hampshire-primary-dnc-calendar-changes/. live.
  5. Web site: Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says. April 30, 2023. Kashinsky, Lisa. Garrity, Kelly. Politico. January 17, 2024.
  6. Web site: Hassan on threat to New Hampshire primary: 'We will go first'. July 9, 2023. WMUR.com. Sexton, Adam. January 17, 2024.
  7. Web site: Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot. Schneider, Elena. Politico. October 24, 2023. October 24, 2023.
  8. News: Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H. . Kashinsky, Lisa. Politico. October 30, 2023. October 30, 2023.
  9. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  10. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  11. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  12. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  13. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . August 6, 2024.
  14. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  15. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . June 21, 2024 . en.
  16. Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 14, 2024 . en . June 11, 2024.
  17. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . July 2, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  18. Web site: Harris Maintains Lead Over Trump in NH; Walz Inspires Enthusiasm Among Harris Supporters. August 21, 2024. University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  19. Web site: New Hampshire 2024 Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%. Camille. Mumford. July 31, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  20. Web site: University of New Hampshire.
  21. Web site: The Trafalgar Group (R).
  22. Web site: Harris Maintains Lead Over Trump in NH; Walz Inspires Enthusiasm Among Harris Supporters. August 21, 2024. University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  23. Web site: Saint Anselm College Survey Center July Poll Finds Harris Currently Leading Trump by 6 Points Among New Hampshire Registered Voters. www.anselm.edu.
  24. Web site: EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump, Harris Neck-and-Neck in New Hampshire. Michael. Graham. July 22, 2024.
  25. Web site: University of New Hampshire.
  26. Web site: Marist College.
  27. Web site: New Hampshire 2024: Haley Surges to Second Place While Trump Maintains Lead. Camille. Mumford. November 15, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  28. Web site: University of New Hampshire/CNN.
  29. Web site: New Hampshire 2024: DeSantis Fades, Trump Maintains Lead in Primary. Camille. Mumford. August 15, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  30. Web site: SACSC June poll shows voters believe a Biden/Trump matchup would be a clear sign of a broken party system. www.anselm.edu.
  31. Web site: New Hampshire 2024: Trump Holds 41-Point Lead for Republican Nomination. Camille. Mumford. March 7, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  32. Web site: 230035 NH Statewide - General Voters 1.26 | Displayr. app.displayr.com.
  33. Web site: New Hampshire: Hassan Maintains Narrow Lead Over Bolduc. Camille. Mumford. November 4, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  34. Web site: University of Massachusetts Lowell.
  35. Web site: New Hampshire 2022: Bolduc Gains on Hassan in US Senate Election. Camille. Mumford. October 24, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  36. Web site: New Hampshire 2022: Senator Hassan Leads Freshly Nominated Bolduc By 11. Camille. Mumford. September 16, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  37. Web site: University of New Hampshire.
  38. Web site: Saint Anselm College . August 20, 2021 . June 12, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210612011035/https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/summary.pdf . dead .
  39. Web site: Saint Anselm College.
  40. Web site: NHJournal/Praecones Analytica.
  41. Web site: University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov.
  42. Web site: New Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center finds Nikki Haley is the clear choice of voters that have an unfavorable opinion of former President Donald Trump. www.anselm.edu.
  43. Web site: Adobe Acrobat. acrobat.adobe.com.