See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada |
Country: | Nevada |
Type: | Presidential |
Ongoing: | yes |
Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada |
Previous Year: | 2020 |
Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Nevada |
Next Year: | 2028 |
President | |
Before Election: | Joe Biden |
Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Home State1: | California |
Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
Home State2: | Florida |
Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A Mountain West state with a distinct libertarian streak, Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term,[2] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024.[3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[5]
Despite Donald Trump—the Republican nominee—not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major poll on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, has polled somewhat better since becoming the Democrats' presumptive nominee.[6]
See main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary. The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
See main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests. Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.
Source | Ranking | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
align=left | Cook Political Report[7] | August 8, 2024 | |
align=left | Inside Elections[8] | May 9, 2024 | |
align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | June 29, 2023 | |
align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | December 14, 2023 | |
align=left | CNalysis[11] | August 15, 2024 | |
align=left | CNN[12] | August 15, 2024 | |
align=left | The Economist[13] | August 14, 2024 | |
538[14] | June 11, 2024 | ||
RCP[15] | August 15, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Undecided | Margin | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | July 24 – August 19, 2024 | August 21, 2024 | 46.0% | 47.4% | 6.6% | Trump +1.4 | |||
270ToWin | August 6–17, 2024 | August 17, 2024 | 45.2% | 45.6% | 9.2% | Trump +0.4 | |||
Average | 45.6% | 46.5% | 7.9% | Trump +0.9 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Focaldata[16] | data-sort-value="2024-08-16" | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 46% | – | |
New York Times/Siena College[17] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% | ||
677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||||
Trafalgar Group (R)[18] | data-sort-value="2024-07-29" | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 7% | |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[19] | data-sort-value="2024-08-08" | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% | |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[20] | data-sort-value="2024-07-29" | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[21] | data-sort-value="2024-07-28" | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 7% | |
Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[22] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[23] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% | |
Emerson College[24] | data-sort-value="2024-02-22" | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% | |
New York Times/Siena College[25] | October 22–November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% | ||
611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Focaldata[26] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 42% | 7% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
678 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||||
678 (A) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[27] | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% | ||
New York Times/Siena College[28] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% | |||
677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[29] | data-sort-value="2024-08-08" | July 26–August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 42% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[30] | data-sort-value="2024-08-03" | July 31–August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 14% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-07-28" | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 3% | 3% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[31] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
InsiderAdvantage (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | 9% | ||
Emerson College[32] | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% | ||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[33] | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[34] | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% | ||
Emerson College[35] | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 47% | 12% | ||
Remington Research Group (R)[36] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% | ||
National Public Affairs[37] | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12% | ||
Emerson College[38] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% | |||
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – | |||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[39] | data-sort-value="2024-06-25" | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
Fox News[40] | data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% | ||
The Tyson Group[41] | data-sort-value="2024-05-28" | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% | ||
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[42] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% | |||
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | 6% | |||||
Prime Group[43] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% | ||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[44] | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% | ||
New York Times/Siena College[45] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% | |||
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 51% | 11% | |||||
Emerson College[46] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% | |||
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – | |||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[47] | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% | ||
Wall Street Journal[48] | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% | ||
Echelon Insights[49] | data-sort-value="2024-04-15" | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% | ||
Emerson College[50] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% | |||
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – | |||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[51] | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% | ||
Noble Predictive Insights[52] | data-sort-value="2024-03-14" | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% | ||
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-02-22" | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[54] | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% | ||
Emerson College[55] | data-sort-value="2024-01-09" | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% | ||
Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[56] | data-sort-value="2024-01-08" | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[57] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% | ||
Emerson College[59] | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% | ||
New York Times/Siena College | data-sort-value=2023-11-05 | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[60] | data-sort-value="2023-04-26" | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% | ||
CNN[61] | data-sort-value="2023-04-26" | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% | ||
Vote TXT[62] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% | |||
Prime Group[63] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – | |||
500 (RV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22% | |||||
Noble Predictive Insights[64] | data-sort-value="2023-04-26" | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% | ||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[65] | data-sort-value="2023-04-20" | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% | ||
OH Predictive Insights[66] | data-sort-value="2023-02-06" | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% | ||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[67] | data-sort-value="2022-11-09" | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% | ||
Susquehanna Polling & Research[68] | data-sort-value="2022-10-27" | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% | ||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[69] | data-sort-value="2022-10-17" | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% | ||
Emerson College[70] | data-sort-value="2022-09-10" | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% | ||
Emerson College[71] | data-sort-value="2022-07-10" | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% | ||
Blueprint Polling (D)[72] | data-sort-value="2022-03-24" | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-07-18" | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% | |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-19" | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | |
YouGov[73] | data-sort-value="2024-07-15" | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-07-06" | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8% | |
National Public Affairs | data-sort-value="2024-07-03" | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% | |
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% | |
Fox News | data-sort-value="2024-06-06" | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% | |
The Tyson Group | data-sort-value="2024-05-28" | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% | |
Prime Group | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% | |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% | |
New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18% | ||
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14% | ||||
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-04-30" | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-04-24" | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% | |
Wall Street Journal | data-sort-value="2024-04-02" | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11% | |
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-03-20" | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-03-26" | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% | |
Noble Predictive Insights | data-sort-value="2024-03-14" | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% | |
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-02-22" | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | data-sort-value="2024-01-31" | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% | |
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-01-09" | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% | |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] | data-sort-value="2023-12-14" | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% | |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Other / Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P2 Insights[75] | data-sort-value="2024-06-26" | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | data-sort-value="2024-06-25" | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% | ||
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% | |||
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | |||||
Iron Light Intelligence[76] | data-sort-value="2024-05-22" | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% | ||
New York Times/Siena College[77] | data-sort-value="2023-10-15" | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other / Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College | data-sort-value="2023-11-05" | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% | ||
Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% | |||
Noble Predictive Insights | data-sort-value="2023-04-26" | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% | ||
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-04-20" | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% | ||
OH Predictive Insights | data-sort-value="2023-02-06" | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% | ||
Emerson College | data-sort-value="2022-07-10" | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Partisan clients