See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri |
| Country: | Missouri |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Missouri |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Kamala Harris |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | California |
| Running Mate2: | Tim Walz |
| Image1: | Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Donald Trump |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | Florida |
| Running Mate1: | JD Vance |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in both of his election bids.
As a state located almost entirely in the conservative Bible Belt, with the southern portion of the state being part of the Upland South, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and is now a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. Democratic strength in Missouri today is largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia. The state is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican nominee, Trump, in 2024.[2]
See main article: 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses.
The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.
See main article: 2024 Missouri Democratic presidential primary. The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[3] | December 19, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[4] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[6] | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[7] | December 30, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNN[8] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[9] | June 12, 2024 | |
| 538[10] | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP[11] | June 26, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[12] | data-sort-value="2024-06-21" | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 40% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College[13] | data-sort-value="2024-02-02" | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 32% | 19% | ||
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[14] | data-sort-value="2023-10-12" | October 10–11, 2023 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 39% | 9% | ||
| SurveyUSA[15] | data-sort-value="2022-11-01" | October 27 – November 1, 2022 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | 14% | ||
| Emerson College[16] | data-sort-value="2022-10-28" | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College[17] | data-sort-value="2022-09-27" | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,160 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 37% | 12% | ||
| SurveyUSA[18] | data-sort-value="2022-09-18" | September 14–18, 2022 | 830 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 35% | 13% | ||
| SurveyUSA[19] | data-sort-value="2022-07-27" | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,981 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 35% | 14% | ||
| SurveyUSA[20] | data-sort-value="2022-05-15" | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 35% | 15% | ||
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[21] | data-sort-value="2021-09-20" | September 18–20, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 36% | 9% | ||
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[22] | data-sort-value="2021-04-22" | April 21–22, 2021 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein