See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota |
| Country: | Minnesota |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Minnesota |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Party1: | Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
| Party2: | Republican Party of Minnesota |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in 2020 (233,012 votes). Opinion polling before Biden withdrew consistently suggested a closer race than in 2020; thus, Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning swing state in this election.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the Democratic party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[2] [3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[5] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.[6]
On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.[7] This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, Walz would become the third vice president from Minnesota if elected.[8]
See main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary. The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
See main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary. The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
See main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary. The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krystal Gabel (withdrew) | 759 | 28.84% | - | |||
| Dennis Schuller | 459 | 17.44% | 7 | |||
| Vermin Supreme | 397 | 15.08% | 6 | |||
| Rudy Reyes | 365 | 13.87% | 5 | |||
| Edward Forchion | 168 | 6.38% | 2 | |||
| Willie Nelson (write-in) | 19 | 0.72% | 0 | |||
| Other write-ins | 465 | 17.67% | - | |||
| Total: | 2,632 | 100.00% | 20 | |||
| Source:[9] | ||||||
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[10] | July 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[11] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | August 6, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | July 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[14] | August 6, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[15] | January 14, 2024 | |
| 538[16] | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP[17] | July 27, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris announces Tim Walz as her running mate | |||||||||
| SurveyUSA[18] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" | July 23–25, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 10% | ||
| Fox News[19] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 46% | 2% | ||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[20] | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 40% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 10% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[21] | data-sort-value="2024-08-03" | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 538 (LV) | – | 46% | 41% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 10% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[22] | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" | July 22–24, 2024 | 475 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 6% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% | |
| Fox News | data-sort-value="2024-07-26" | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[23] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% | |||
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 49% | – | |||||
| SurveyUSA[24] | data-sort-value="2024-06-17" | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 41% | 12% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[25] | data-sort-value="2024-06-14" | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% | ||
| SurveyUSA[26] | data-sort-value="2024-04-08" | May 8–11, 2024 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 42% | 14% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[27] | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% | ||
| SurveyUSA[28] | data-sort-value="2024-04-08" | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14% | ||
| SurveyUSA[29] | data-sort-value="2024-02-29" | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 38% | 20% | ||
| SurveyUSA[30] | January 24–29, 2024 | 1,594 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% | |||
| Embold Research/MinnPost[31] | data-sort-value="2023-10-16" | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,519 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College[32] | data-sort-value="2023-10-16" | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[33] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-13" | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | data-sort-value="2024-05-07" | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Partisan clients