See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Country: | Maine |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Maine |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Maine is a sparsely populated rural state in Northern New England. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.
Maine at-large could be a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. Maine is a slightly-to-moderately blue state, and is favored to be held at-large by the Democrats.
This election will coincide with a referendum on the state flag as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, and various other state, county and local elections.
See main article: 2024 Maine Democratic presidential primary. The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
See main article: 2024 Maine Republican presidential caucuses. The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
On December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Donald Trump from the ballot in a similar decision to Anderson v. Griswold in Colorado.[2] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[3] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court.[4] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Donald Trump is allowed to remain on the Maine ballot.[5]
Note these predictions are for Maine at-large.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[6] | December 19, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[7] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | July 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[10] | August 5, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[11] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[12] | August 15, 2024 | |
| 538[13] | July 15, 2024 | ||
| RCP[14] | June 26, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[15] | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% | ||
| University of New Hampshire[16] | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[17] | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | ||
| University of New Hampshire | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[22] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 38% | 30% | |||
| Digital Research[23] | data-sort-value=2024-01-11 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% | ||
| Emerson College[24] | data-sort-value=2022-09-20 | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research[25] | April 8–30, 2024 | 809 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% | |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | – | |||||
| 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | – | 6% | – | |||||
| 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | – | – | – | |||||
| 5 | 51% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 31% | 31% | |||
| Digital Research | data-sort-value=2024-01-11 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 25% | 30% | |||
| Digital Research | data-sort-value=2024-01-11 | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 42% | 28% | 30% |