See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa |
| Country: | Iowa |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Iowa |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Nominee2: | Kamala Harris |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | California |
| Running Mate2: | Tim Walz |
| Image1: | Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Donald Trump |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State1: | Florida |
| Running Mate1: | JD Vance |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
An Upper Midwestern state previously considered a battleground and a bellwether state for decades, Iowa voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and is now considered a moderately red state at the federal and state levels. Republican Donald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 8.2% while losing nationally in 2020, despite polls indicating a close race.
Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (governor, secretary of agriculture, and secretary of state) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent attorney general and 40-year incumbent treasurer) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent auditor) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%. Republicans also won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.[2] [3] As such, Iowa is no longer considered a swing state and is expected to remain red in 2024.[4]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.[5] [6] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[7]
Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.[8]
See main article: 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses. During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15, but voting on candidates will be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[9]
See main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.
See main article: 2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses.
| Election Name: | 2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses |
| Country: | Iowa |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2020 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in Iowa#Libertarian caucuses |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Election Date: | January 15, 2024 |
| Elected Members: | MA |
| Candidate1: | Chase Oliver |
| Color1: | 218DDA |
| Home State1: | Georgia |
| Percentage1: | 42.7% |
| Candidate2: | Michael Rectenwald |
| Color2: | C72532 |
| Home State2: | Pennsylvania |
| Percentage2: | 16.9% |
| Candidate4: | Mike ter Maat |
| Colour4: | 6F2900 |
| Home State4: | Florida |
| Percentage4: | 13.5% |
| Candidate5: | Joshua Smith |
| Color5: | 10A742 |
| Home State5: | Iowa |
| Percentage5: | 13.5% |
| Map Size: | 200px |
The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[10] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[11]
| 38 | 42.70 | ||
| 15 | 16.85 | ||
| 12 | 13.48 | ||
| 12 | 13.48 | ||
| 4 | 4.49 | ||
| 2 | 2.25 | ||
| 2 | 2.25 | ||
| 1 | 1.12 | ||
| 1 | 1.12 | ||
| 1 | 1.12 | ||
| None of the above | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Total | 89 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[13] | December 19, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[14] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | June 13, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[17] | December 30, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNN[18] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[19] | July 14, 2024 | |
| 538[20] | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP[21] | June 26, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[22] | data-sort-value=2024-07-15 | July 8–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | 10% | ||
| Selzer & Co.[23] | data-sort-value=2024-03-05 | February 25–28, 2024 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 33% | 19% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[24] | February 13–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | 11% | |||
| John Zogby Strategies[25] | January 2–4, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% | |||
| Emerson College[26] | December 15–17, 2023 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 40% | 12% | |||
| Emerson College[27] | May 19–22, 2023 | 1,064 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 38% | 13% | |||
| Emerson College[28] | data-sort-value=2022-10-04 | October 2–4, 2022 | 959 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 39% | 14% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[29] | data-sort-value=2022-10-04 | October 2–4, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[30] | data-sort-value=2022-07-14 | July 13–14, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[31] | data-sort-value=2022-02-22 | February 20–22, 2022 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 38% | 9% | ||
| Selzer & Co.[32] | data-sort-value=2021-11-10 | November 7–10, 2021 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% | ||
| Cygnal (R)[33] | data-sort-value=2021-10-19 | October 18–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 41% | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Partisan clients