2024 United States presidential election in Idaho explained

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Idaho
Country:Idaho
Type:Presidential
College Voted:no
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Idaho
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Idaho
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee2:Kamala Harris
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:California
Running Mate2:Tim Walz
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:274,972
Percentage2:30.38%
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:JD Vance
Electoral Vote1:4
Popular Vote1:605,246
Percentage1:66.87%
Map Size:300px

The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

As expected, Republican Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the Gem State, taking 66.9% of the vote to Democrat Kamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.6% in 2020 and his 31.7% in 2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho since George W. Bush's 38.1% in 2004. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solid red state; a sparsely-populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly-White populace and an evangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state after Harry Truman in 1948 being landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.

Trump flipped the Panhandle county of Latah, anchored by the college town of Moscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% in 2000. He also became the first presidential Republican to win Ada County — home to the state capital and largest city Boise — by a double-digit margin since Mitt Romney in 2012, and the first to ever win the White House without winning Teton County since it was established in 1915.

Primary elections

The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-ran primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-ran primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president.[2]

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Idaho Republican presidential primary. The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Democratic caucuses

See main article: 2024 Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses.

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

General election

Candidates

The official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[3]

Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominate Joel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[4]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political Report[5] December 19, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[6] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] June 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[9] December 30, 2023
align=left CNN[10] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[11] June 12, 2024
538[12] June 11, 2024
RCP[13] June 26, 2024
NBC News[14] October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[15] data-sort-value="2024-05-01" April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)60%30%10%
Emerson College[16] October 1–4, 2023490 (RV)± 4.4%55%26%19%
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.[17]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
71%26%
62%35%Mike Simpson

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . February 7, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: Corbin . Clark . 2023-10-16 . Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun . 2024-07-15 . Idaho Capital Sun . en-US.
  3. News: Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot . Clark . Corbin . . September 4, 2024 . September 9, 2024 .
  4. Web site: Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee . Greg . Pruett . Idaho Dispatch . August 5, 2024 . September 9, 2024 .
  5. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  6. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  7. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  8. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  9. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  10. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  11. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . June 12, 2024 . en.
  12. Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . en . June 11, 2024.
  13. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  14. Web site: Presidential Election Preview 2024 . NBC News.
  15. Web site: Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump. Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  16. Web site: Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State. Camille. Mumford. October 11, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  17. Web site: 2024 Pres by CD .