2024 United States presidential election in California explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in California
Country:California
Type:presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in California
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in California
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance

The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.[2]

The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most Democratic, California is a deeply blue state today and has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992. It has done so by double digits in each of them excluding 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. It is thus expected that California will be continue its streak, with Vice President Kamala Harris – a native Californian who served as the state's Attorney General from 2011 to 2017 and later represented it in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency – being the Democratic nominee for president.

Harris is the first Californian to appear on a major party presidential ticket since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and if elected, she will be the fourth president from California after Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, and Reagan, as well as the first Californian and Western Democrat to do so.[3] [4]

In April 2024, the American Independent Party of California nominated independent candidate, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (whom resides in the state) as its presidential nominee, despite not seeking the party's nomination.[5]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 California Democratic presidential primary. The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 California Republican presidential primary. The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.

The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.

Libertarian primary

See main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries. Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot.[6] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate.[7]

2024 California Libertarian primary[8]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Charles Ballay21,90698.6%
Chase Oliver (write-in)3131.4%
Total:22,219100.0%

Green primary

See main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries. Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates. Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.

2024 California Green primary
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Jill Stein15,80199.96%59
Matthew Pruden (write-in)30.02%
Jorge Zavala (write-in)30.02%
Davi (write-in)10.00%
Total:15,808100.0%59

Peace and Freedom primary

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[9] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[10]

2024 California Peace and Freedom primary
CandidateVotesPercentage
Claudia de la Cruz6,43047.0%
Cornel West5,45539.9%
Jasmine Sherman1,79513.1%
Total:13,680100.0%

American Independent Party

The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for U.S. Senator as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day.[11] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.

2024 California American Independent primary
CandidateVotesPercentage
James Bradley45,56599.96%
Andrew George Rummel (write-in)160.04%
Total:45,581100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[12] December 19, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[13] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] June 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[16] December 30, 2023
align=left CNN[17] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[18] June 12, 2024
538[19] June 11, 2024
RCP[20] June 26, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[21] data-sort-value="2024-08-19" August 2–19, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%65%35%
UC Berkeley IGS[22] data-sort-value="2024-08-11" July 31 – August 11, 20243,765 (LV)± 2.0%59%34%7%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[23] November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%15%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Chase
Oliver
Other /
Undecided
Capitol Weekly[24] data-sort-value="2024-07-27" July 25–27, 20241,904 (LV)59%35%5%0%2%
July 21, 2024Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Capitol Weekly[25] data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)54%33%7%0%4%2%
Capitol Weekly[26] data-sort-value="2024-07-14" July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)54%35%7%0%3%2%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Institute of California[27] June 24 – July 2, 20241,261 (LV)± 3.7%55%30%15%
Public Policy Institute of California[28] May 23 – June 2, 20241,098 (LV)± 3.9%55%31%14%
Public Policy Institute of California[29] March 19–25, 20241,089 (LV)± 3.9%54%31%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[30] February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%57%35%8%
UC Berkeley IGS[31] February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%52%34%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[32] February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%33%12%
Public Policy Institute of California[33] February 6–14, 20241,075 (LV)± 3.9%55%32%13%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[34] January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%54%34%12%
UC Berkeley IGS[35] January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%56%37%19%
Emerson College/Inside California ElectionsNovember 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%37%13%
Public Policy Institute of California[36] November 9–16, 20231,113 (LV)± 3.2%54%30%16%
UC Berkeley IGS[37] October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%46%31%23%
Public Policy Institute of California[38] October 3–19, 20231,377 (LV)± 4.0%60%29%12%
Data Viewpoint[39] October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%67%33%
Public Policy Institute of California[40] August 25 – September 5, 20231,146 (LV)± 3.7%57%26%17%
UC Berkeley IGS[41] August 24–29, 20236,030 (RV)± 2.0%51%31%18%
Public Policy Institute of California[42] June 7–29, 20231,089 (LV)± 3.8%57%31%12%
Public Policy Institute of California[43] May 17–24, 20231,062 (LV)± 3.9%58%25%17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[44] data-sort-value="2023-02-20" February 14–20, 20235,149 (LV)± 2.0%59%29%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Capitol Weekly[45] data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)52%35%6%0%4%3%
Capitol Weekly[46] data-sort-value="2024-07-14" July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)51%33%6%0%5%5%
Emerson College/Inside California ElectionsFebruary 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%32%6%2%1%8%
UC Berkeley IGSFebruary 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%40%28%11%3%2%16%
Emerson College/Inside California ElectionsFebruary 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%31%8%1%1%10%
Emerson College/Inside California ElectionsJanuary 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%47%32%6%1%1%13%
UC Berkeley IGSJanuary 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%47%31%7%2%2%11%
Emerson College/Inside California ElectionsNovember 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%31%8%1%2%15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: Kamala Harris makes history — as a Westerner. Reid. Wislon. August 11, 2020. The Hill. August 8, 2024. December 15, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231215223105/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511601-kamala-harris-makes-history-as-a-westerner/. live.
  4. News: Masih . Niha . July 23, 2024 . The dizzying array of firsts for Harris if she wins nomination or election . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20240723130607/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/23/kamala-harris-first/ . July 23, 2024 . August 3, 2024 . The Washington Post.
  5. Web site: April 29, 2024 . Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will appear on California ballot with this small, far-right party . Sacramento Bee.
  6. News: Certified List of Candidates . California Secretary of State . December 29, 2023 . December 28, 2023 .
  7. Web site: Certified List of Presidential Write-In Candidates . Office of the Secretary of State of California . February 23, 2024 . March 9, 2024 .
  8. Web site: STATEMENT OF VOTE MARCH 5, 2024, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS. California Secretary of State. April 12, 2024. April 12, 2024. April 13, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240413044714/https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2024-primary/sov/complete-sov.pdf. dead.
  9. Web site: December 28, 2023 . Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election. December 29, 2023 . Secretary of State of California.
  10. News: Winger . Richard . Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names. December 3, 2023 . December 3, 2023.
  11. News: September 22, 2023 . September 22, 2023 . California Senate Candidate Roundup: September 22, 2023. Diamond Eye Candidate Report . Frisk . Garrett .
  12. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  13. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  14. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  15. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  16. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  17. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  18. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . June 12, 2024 . en.
  19. Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . en . June 11, 2024.
  20. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  21. Web site: Harris Far Ahead in Her Home State. Allis . Victor . August 19, 2024. ActiVote.
  22. Web site: Poll: Harris and Walz build huge lead among likely California voters. Rainey . James . August 14, 2024. Los Angeles Times.
  23. Web site: California 2024: Tight Race for U.S. Senate Nomination Between Schiff, Porter, Garvey, and Lee; Plurality Remain Undecided. Camille. Mumford. November 17, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  24. Web site: CA120: New polls show young voters, Latinos key to Dem hopes in November. Mitchell . Paul . August 1, 2024. Capitol Weekly.
  25. Web site: CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters. Mitchell . Paul . July 24, 2024. Capitol Weekly.
  26. Web site: CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters. Mitchell . Paul . July 24, 2024. Capitol Weekly.
  27. Web site: PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment. Public Policy Institute of California.
  28. Web site: Public Policy Institute of California.
  29. Web site: Public Policy Institute of California.
  30. Web site: California 2024 U.S. Senate Poll: Schiff 28%, Garvey 20%, Porter 17%; 17% undecided. Camille. Mumford. February 29, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  31. Web site: Release #2024-07: Trump dominating next week's California GOP presidential primary. Disaffection with both Biden and Trump is drawing support away from each in a multi-candidate general election field.. Mark. DiCamillo. March 1, 2024. escholarship.org.
  32. Web site: California 2024 Poll: Schiff Continues to Lead U.S. Senate Primary with 28%. Camille. Mumford. February 20, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  33. Web site: Public Policy Institute of California.
  34. Web site: California 2024 Poll: Schiff and Garvey Gain Support in Crowded Primary. Camille. Mumford. January 18, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  35. Web site: UC Berkeley IGS.
  36. Web site: Public Policy Institute of California.
  37. Web site: UC Berkeley IGS.
  38. Web site: Public Policy Institute of California.
  39. Web site: Data Viewpoint.
  40. Web site: PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government. Public Policy Institute of California.
  41. Web site: UC Berkeley IGS.
  42. Web site: PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment. Public Policy Institute of California.
  43. Web site: PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government. Public Policy Institute of California.
  44. Web site: Tabulations from a February 2023 Poll of California Registered Voters about President Biden and 2024 Presidential Politics. Mark. DiCamillo. February 24, 2023. escholarship.org.
  45. Web site: CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters. Mitchell . Paul . July 24, 2024. Capitol Weekly.
  46. Web site: CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters. Mitchell . Paul . July 24, 2024. Capitol Weekly.
  47. Web site: DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters – Probolsky Research. www.probolskyresearch.com.