2024 United States presidential election in Arizona explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
Country:Arizona
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Nevada
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Image1:Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kamala Harris
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:California
Running Mate1:Tim Walz
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:JD Vance

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3]

The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[4] This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. The state is now considered a purple state.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.[5]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary. The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary. The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".[6] [7]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political Report[8] August 8, 2024
align=left Inside Elections[9] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] June 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[12] August 5, 2024
align=left CNN[13] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[14] August 14, 2024
RCP[15] August 15, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Undecided
Margin
RealClearPoliticsJuly 22 – August 15, 2024August 19, 202447.1%47.3%5.6%Trump +0.2
270ToWinJuly 22 – August 17, 2024August 17, 202446.6%44.8%8.6%Harris +1.8
Average47.1%46.1%6.8%Harris +1.0
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[16] data-sort-value="2024-08-17" August 13–17, 20241,187 (LV)–45%47%8%
Focaldata[17] data-sort-value="2024-08-16" August 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%–
New York Times/Siena College[18] August 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%49%45%7%
677 (LV)± 4.4%50%45%5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[19] data-sort-value="2024-07-29" August 6–8, 20241,092 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%5%
Navigator Research (D)[20] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%49%5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[21] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 26 – August 8, 2024435 (LV)–48%46%6%
HighGround[22] data-sort-value="2024-08-05" July 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%44%42%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[23] data-sort-value="2024-07-30" July 29–30, 2024618 (RV)± 3.9%47%49%4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[24] data-sort-value="2024-07-29" July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%43%48%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[25] data-sort-value="2024-07-30" July 24–28, 2024804 (RV)± 3.0%49%47%4%
Emerson College[26] July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%44%49%7%
800 (RV)± 3.4%47%53%–
July 21, 2024Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[27] data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28] data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–44%52%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[29] data-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%42%51%7%
Emerson College[30] data-sort-value="2024-02-22" February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%48%12%
New York Times/Siena College[31] October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%43%48%9%
603 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Chase
Oliver
Other /
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[32] data-sort-value="2024-08-17" August 13–17, 20241,187 (LV)–44%45%7%1%0%–3%
Focaldata[33] August 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%45%46%7%–0%0%2%
702 (RV)± 3.7%45%45%9%–0%0%1%
702 (A)± 3.7%42%46%9%–0%0%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[34] data-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 12–15, 2024592 (LV)–43%44%5%–1%1%6%
New York Times/Siena College[35] August 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%45%42%6%0%1%2%4%
677 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%5%0%0%1%4%
Navigator Research (D)[36] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%46%5%0%0%0%4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[37] data-sort-value="2024-08-08" July 26 – August 8, 2024435 (LV)–46%42%7%1%0%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[38] data-sort-value="2024-08-03" July 31 – August 3, 2024567 (LV)–44%43%4%–0%0%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-07-30" July 24–28, 2024804 (RV)± 3.0%48%44%5%–0%2%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[39] data-sort-value="2024-07-26" July 22–24, 2024510 (LV)–43%46%4%–0%1%6%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-25" July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%40%48%5%1%1%1%4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 17–20, 2024738 (RV)± 3.6%44%50%6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%44%49%7%
Emerson College[41] data-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%47%13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[42] data-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 5–12, 20241,101 (LV)± 3.0%41%50%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–43%51%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[43] data-sort-value="2024-07-06" July 1–5, 2024781 (RV)± 4.0%45%48%7%
Emerson College[44] data-sort-value="2024-07-08" June 30 – July 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
Remington Research Group (R)[45] data-sort-value="2024-07-03" June 29 – July 1, 2024638 (LV)± 4.0%42%49%9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[46] data-sort-value="2024-06-21" June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%48%10%
Emerson College[47] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%47%10%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Rasmussen Reports (R)[48] data-sort-value="2024-06-14" June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%40%47%13%
Fox News[49] data-sort-value="2024-06-06" June 1–4, 20241,095 (RV)± 3.0%46%51%3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[50] data-sort-value="2024-06-12" May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%44%50%6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[51] May 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%41%41%18%
501 (LV)± 4.0%45%43%12%
CBS News/YouGov[52] data-sort-value="2024-05-19" May 10–16, 20241,214 (RV)± 3.5%47%52%1%
Prime Group[53] data-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 9–16, 2024490 (RV)–49%51%–
Noble Predictive Insights[54] data-sort-value="2024-05-21" May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%41%44%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%44%49%7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[55] data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%11%
New York Times/Siena College[56] April 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%42%49%9%
626 (LV)± 4.0%43%49%8%
Emerson College[57] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%48%8%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58] data-sort-value="2024-04-24" April 8–15, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%42%49%9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[59] data-sort-value="2024-04-15" April 7–11, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%44%48%8%
The Bullfinch Group[60] data-sort-value="2024-04-12" March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%38%44%18%
RABA Research[61] data-sort-value="2024-04-01" March 28–31, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%39%25%
Wall Street Journal[62] data-sort-value="2024-04-02" March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%42%47%11%
Echelon Insights[63] data-sort-value="2024-04-15" March 12–19, 2024401 (LV)± 5.7%45%51%4%
North Star Opinion Research[64] data-sort-value="2024-03-18" March 14–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College[65] March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%48%8%
1,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[66] data-sort-value="2024-03-26" March 8–14, 2024796 (RV)± 3.0%43%48%9%
Fox News[67] data-sort-value="2024-03-13" March 7–11, 20241,121 (RV)± 3.0%45%49%6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[68] data-sort-value="2024-02-28" February 21–26, 20241,001 (RV)± 3.0%40%47%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[69] data-sort-value="2024-02-29" February 12–20, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-22" February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
J.L. Partners[70] data-sort-value="2024-02-01" January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%41%45%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] data-sort-value="2024-01-31" January 16–21, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
The Bullfinch Group[72] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" December 14–18, 2023600 (RV)± 4.0%40%50%10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[73] data-sort-value="2023-12-19" December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–41%46%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" November 27 – December 6, 2023796 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
J.L. Partners[75] data-sort-value="2023-12-01" November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%9%
Tulchin Research (D)[76] November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%42%42%16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] data-sort-value="2023-11-09" October 30 – November 7, 2023800 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College[78] data-sort-value=2023-11-05 October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%43%16%
New York Times/Siena Collegedata-sort-value=2023-11-05 October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%44%49%7%
Noble Predictive Insights[79] data-sort-value="2023-11-14" October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%38%46%16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[80] data-sort-value="2023-10-19" October 5–10, 2023804 (RV)± 3.0%43%47%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[81] data-sort-value="2023-10-15"October 7–9, 2023627 (RV)–39%44%16%
Emerson College[82] data-sort-value="2023-08-08"August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%43%45%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[83] data-sort-value="2023-07-24" July 22–24, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%45%44%8%
Prime Group[84] June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–48%52%–
500 (RV)–31%41%28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[85] data-sort-value="2023-06-19" June 17–19, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%41%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[86] data-sort-value="2023-05-17" May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%46%44%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[87] data-sort-value="2023-04-13" April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%45%44%11%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[88] data-sort-value="2023-03-14" March 13–14, 20231,001 (LV)± 3.0%39%50%11%
OH Predictive Insights[89] data-sort-value="2023-02-09" January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%39%37%24%
Blueprint Polling (D)[90] data-sort-value="2023-01-08" January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%35%38%27%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[91] data-sort-value="2022-11-09" November 8–9, 2022874 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%8%
Targoz Market Research[92] data-sort-value="2022-11-06" November 2–6, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%45%53%2%
Emerson College[93] data-sort-value="2022-11-01" October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College[94] data-sort-value="2022-09-07" September 6–7, 2022627 (LV)± 3.9%41%44%15%
Echelon Insights[95] data-sort-value="2022-09-07" August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (LV)± 4.5%43%47%10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[96] data-sort-value="2022-05-16" May 12–16, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%41%41%18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[97] data-sort-value="2021-11-16" November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%43%51%6%
Bendixen/Amandi International[98] data-sort-value="2021-06-23" June 17–23, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Jill
Stein
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-21" July 17–20, 2024738 (RV)± 3.6%40%45%7%–2%6%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-07-18" July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%46%6%1%1%10%
J.L. Partners[99] data-sort-value="2024-07-17" July 10–11, 2024513 (LV)± 4.3%40%46%4%–2%8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)data-sort-value="2024-07-19" July 5–12, 20241,101 (LV)± 3.0%37%46%9%1%1%6%
YouGov[100] data-sort-value="2024-07-15" July 4–12, 2024900 (RV)± 3.9%37%44%5%1%2%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-07-06" July 1–5, 2024781 (RV)± 4.0%38%45%9%1%0%7%
North Star Opinion Research (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-21" June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%32%42%13%–3%10%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%39%43%8%1%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-14" June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%37%41%10%2%1%9%
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-06-06" June 1–4, 20241,095 (RV)± 3.0%41%46%8%1%1%3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)data-sort-value="2024-06-12" May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%45%11%0%3%4%
Prime Groupdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 9–16, 2024490 (RV)–40%44%11%3%2%–
Noble Predictive Insightsdata-sort-value="2024-05-21" May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%36%43%8%1%2%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-05-22" May 7–13, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%40%45%7%1%2%5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)data-sort-value="2024-05-23" May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%37%41%10%2%1%9%
New York Times/Siena CollegeApril 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%33%42%10%0%2%13%
626 (LV)± 4.0%35%44%8%0%2%11%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-04-30" April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%44%9%1%1%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-04-24" April 8–15, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%40%46%7%2%0%5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)data-sort-value="2024-04-15" April 7–11, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%37%42%10%–2%9%
Wall Street Journaldata-sort-value="2024-04-02" March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%34%39%13%2%1%11%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-03-20" March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%38%46%7%1%2%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-03-26" March 8–14, 2024796 (RV)± 3.0%37%43%12%2%1%5%
Fox Newsdata-sort-value="2024-03-13" March 7–11, 20241,121 (RV)± 3.0%39%43%10%1%2%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consultdata-sort-value="2024-02-29" February 12–20, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%36%45%9%1%1%8%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-22" February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%43%8%1%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[101] data-sort-value="2024-01-31" January 16–21, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%35%43%10%1%1%10%
VCreek/AMG (R)data-sort-value="2023-12-19" December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–32%40%9%3%2%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] data-sort-value="2023-12-14" November 27 – December 6, 2023796 (RV)± 3.0%37%40%10%1%1%11%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail[103] data-sort-value="2023-11-09" November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%39%44%5%1%0%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Other /
Undecided
1983 Labs[104] data-sort-value="2024-07-03" June 28–30, 2024492 (LV)± 4.4%33%48%8%11%
P2 Insights[105] data-sort-value="2024-06-26" June 11–20, 2024650 (LV)± 3.8%36%47%7%10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%37%39%9%15%
501 (LV)± 4.0%39%43%7%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[106] data-sort-value="2024-05-13" May 2–4, 2024625 (LV)–42%44%7%7%
Data Orbital[107] data-sort-value="2024-03-25" April 27–29, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%38.8%38.1%13.5%9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[108] data-sort-value="2024-03-25" March 14–17, 2024516 (LV)–41%44%7%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[109] data-sort-value="2024-01-08" December 28–30, 2023808 (LV)–35%41%10%14%
VCreek/AMG (R)data-sort-value="2023-12-19" December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–35%40%16%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[110] data-sort-value="2023-12-05" November 27–29, 20231,103 (LV)–33%40%10%17%
New York Times/Siena College[111] data-sort-value="2023-10-15" October 22– November 3, 2023603 (LV)± 4.4%33%33%26%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategiesdata-sort-value="2023-10-15" October 7–9, 2023627 (LV)–37%42%8%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Donald
Trump
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Cornel
West
Other /
Undecided
North Star Opinion Researchdata-sort-value="2024-03-18" March 14–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%33%37%18%2%10%
J.L. Partnersdata-sort-value="2023-12-01" November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.4%34%39%4%1%22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] data-sort-value="2023-11-09" October 30 – November 7, 2023800 (RV)± 3.0%36%40%11%1%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Donald
Trump
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)data-sort-value="2024-07-22" July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–44%51%5%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-02-22" February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%34%47%19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Nikki
Haley
Other /
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)data-sort-value="2023-12-19" December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–30%37%33%
New York Times/Siena College[113] data-sort-value="2023-11-05" October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%37%46%17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Ron
DeSantis
Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena Collegedata-sort-value="2023-11-05" October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%42%46%12%
Noble Predictive Insightsdata-sort-value="2023-11-14" October 25 – 31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%37%40%23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)data-sort-value="2023-07-24" July 22–24, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%39%46%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)data-sort-value="2023-06-19" June 17–19, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%40%46%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)data-sort-value="2023-05-17" May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%43%47%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)data-sort-value="2023-04-13" April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%48%10%
OH Predictive Insightsdata-sort-value="2023-02-09" January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%35%36%29%
Blueprint Polling (D)data-sort-value="2023-01-08" January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%37%43%20%
Echelon Insightsdata-sort-value="2022-09-07" August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (LV)± 4.5%43%43%14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . August 20, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision. Kinery, Emma. April 25, 2023. CNBC. July 22, 2023. April 25, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230425102004/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/joe-biden-announces-2024-reelection-campaign.html. live.
  3. News: Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside . The Washington Post . July 22, 2024.
  4. News: Gold . Michael . Nehamas . Nicholas . March 13, 2024 . Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations . July 22, 2024 . The New York Times . 0362-4331 . March 13, 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240313034919/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html . live.
  5. Web site: Pellish . Aaron . 2024-02-27 . Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia CNN Politics . 2024-02-27 . CNN . en.
  6. News: Stern . Ray . Arizona lawmaker wants to give state electoral votes to GOP nominee before 2024 election . February 18, 2024 . . February 15, 2024 . https://archive.today/20240218080431/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/legislature/2024/02/15/arizona-bill-would-give-votes-to-gop-nominee-before-2024-election/72605621007/ . February 18, 2024.
  7. Web site: Jones . Rachel . H.C.R. 2055 . Arizona Legislature . 15 February 2024.
  8. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  9. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  10. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  11. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  12. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . August 6, 2024.
  13. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  14. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . August 14, 2024 . en.
  15. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  16. Web site: No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention. Jonathan. Draeger. August 18, 2024. RealClearPolling.
  17. Web site: Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll. Chalfant . Morgan . Sarlin . Benjy. August 19, 2024. Semafor.
  18. News: Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Arizona. The New York Times . August 17, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  19. Web site: Arizona Statewide Presidential Survey - August 2024.
  20. Web site: Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground. Russell . Rachael . August 20, 2024. Navigator Research.
  21. Web site: The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President. Amy. Walter. August 14, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  22. Web site: Democrats Take Early 'Top of the Ticket' Lead Following Arizona's Primary Election. Paul. Bentz. August 8, 2024. HighGround.
  23. Web site: Trump edges out Harris in Arizona, Pennsylvania but lags in Georgia in new polling. Caroline. Vakil. July 30, 2024.
  24. Web site: Public Opinion Strategies (R). .
  25. News: Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump's Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat. Bloomberg . July 30, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  26. Web site: July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin. Camille. Mumford. July 25, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  27. Web site: Three More Battleground Polls: Trump Leads in PA, NV, AZ; No Post-Shooting Bump, but Large Enthusiasm Gap; Harris Trails Trump – InsiderAdvantage.
  28. Web site: PAF Swing State Poll Democrats v Trump.pdf. Google Docs.
  29. News: Half of Swing-State Voters Fear Violence Around US Election. Bloomberg . May 22, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  30. Web site: Arizona 2024 Poll: Trump 46%, Biden 43%. Camille. Mumford. February 22, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  31. Web site: Trump Leads Biden in Nearly Every Battleground State, New Poll Finds .... November 6, 2023. archive.ph. November 15, 2023. November 6, 2023. https://archive.today/20231106013743/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html. bot: unknown.
  32. Web site: No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention. Jonathan. Draeger. August 18, 2024. RealClearPolling.
  33. Web site: Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll. Chalfant . Morgan . Sarlin . Benjy. August 19, 2024. Semafor.
  34. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024). August 19, 2024.
  35. News: Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Arizona. The New York Times . August 17, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  36. Web site: Navigating the Vote: 2024 Presidential Battleground. Russell . Rachael . August 20, 2024. Navigator Research.
  37. Web site: The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President. Amy. Walter. August 14, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  38. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024). August 6, 2024.
  39. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024). July 25, 2024.
  40. Web site: Public Policy Polling (D).
  41. Web site: July 2024 Swing State Polls. Camille. Mumford. July 18, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  42. Web site: Toplines 2 - Heartland - Battleground July 2024 - ALL RACE DATA - Rasmussen Reports®. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  43. News: Biden Narrows Gap With Trump in Swing States Despite Debate Loss. Bloomberg . July 6, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  44. Web site: Biden lags behind in all of the key battleground states by 4-point average: new poll. Ryan. King. July 8, 2024.
  45. Web site: Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate. July 3, 2024. www.dailywire.com.
  46. Web site: North Star Opinion Research (R).
  47. Web site: June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden. Camille. Mumford. June 20, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  48. Web site: Arizona: Trump 47%, Biden 40%. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  49. Web site: Fox News Poll: Trump hits 51% support in Arizona, up from 49% in March. Dana. Blanton. June 6, 2024. Fox News.
  50. Web site: Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D).
  51. https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Mainstreet_AZ_May_2024_Public.pdf Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
  52. Web site: CBS News poll: Abortion access finds wide support, but inflation and immigration concerns boost Trump in Arizona and Florida - CBS News. Anthony. Salvanto. Jennifer De. Pinto. Fred. Backus. Kabir. Khanna. May 30, 2024. www.cbsnews.com.
  53. Web site: Prime Group.
  54. Web site: Biden Loses Support in Arizona as Trump Holds Steady. Noble Predictive. Insights. May 21, 2024. Noble Predictive.
  55. Web site: A Unique Election Driven by a Traditional Issue. May 24, 2024. Cook Political Report.
  56. News: Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden. Nate. Cohn. The New York Times . May 13, 2024. NYTimes.com.
  57. Web site: Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls. Camille. Mumford. April 30, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  58. News: Biden's Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows. Bloomberg . April 24, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  59. Web site: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R). .
  60. Web site: The Bullfinch Group. April 14, 2024. April 15, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240415034350/https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Independent-Center-2024-Target-State-Survey-of-Registered-Voters-AZ-Toplines.pdf. dead.
  61. Web site: RABA Research.
  62. Web site: Wall Street Journal.
  63. Web site: Echelon Insights.
  64. Web site: News — League of American Workers. March 19, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240319183724/https://www.amworkers.com/news . March 19, 2024 .
  65. Web site: Arizona 2024 Poll: Trump 48%, Biden 44%. Camille. Mumford. March 20, 2024. Emerson Polling.
  66. News: Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows. Bloomberg . March 26, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  67. Web site: Fox News Poll: Trump bests Biden by 4 points in Arizona. Dana. Blanton. March 13, 2024. Fox News.
  68. Web site: Arizona Senate: Kari Lake Leads Democrat Gallego. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  69. News: Biden Is Too Old But Trump Is Dangerous, Swing-State Poll Shows. Bloomberg . February 29, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  70. Web site: Arizona Statewide polling - memo. Punchbowl News.
  71. News: Trump Risks Losing More Than Half of Swing-State Voters If Found Guilty. Bloomberg . January 31, 2024. www.bloomberg.com.
  72. Web site: 2023 Arizona and Pennsylvania RVs. Google Docs.
  73. Web site: VCreek/AMG (R).
  74. News: Biden Forgave Billions in Student Debt. Poll Shows It's Not Enough For Gen Z. Bloomberg . December 14, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  75. Web site: J.L. Partners.
  76. Web site: Tulchin Research (D).
  77. News: Biden's Focus Is on Foreign Conflicts, But Swing-State Voter Worries Are Closer to Home. Bloomberg . November 9, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  78. Web site: Swing State 2024 Polling: Biden Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Leads Trump in Michigan. Camille. Mumford. November 9, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  79. Web site: Update on the 2024 Presidential Election. Noble Predictive. Insights. November 14, 2023. Noble Predictive.
  80. News: Trump Is Winning Over Swing-State Voters Wary of Biden's Economic Plan. Bloomberg . October 19, 2023. www.bloomberg.com.
  81. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (7-9 October 2023). October 15, 2023.
  82. Web site: Arizona 2024: Senator Kyrsten Sinema's Independent Candidacy Could Help Democrats for U.S. Senate. Camille. Mumford. August 8, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  83. Web site: Public Opinion Strategies (R).
  84. Web site: Prime Group.
  85. Web site: Public Opinion Strategies (R).
  86. Web site: x.com.
  87. https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article274385065.html Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  88. Web site: Most Arizona Voters Believe Election 'Irregularities' Affected Outcome. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  89. Web site: OH Predictive Insights . March 16, 2023 . March 16, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230316010359/https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/no-significant-leads-in-a-2024-presidential-election-among-az-voters . dead .
  90. Web site: Blueprint Polling (D) . March 16, 2023 . March 14, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230314163349/https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2024_AZ_election_preview.pdf . dead .
  91. Web site: Midterms 2022: Consensus Emerges to Bring Immigration Under Control. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  92. Web site: Arizona Poll: Close Races In Arizona. November 7, 2022. PollSmart MR.
  93. Web site: Arizona 2022: US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections in Dead Heat. Camille. Mumford. November 4, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  94. Web site: Arizona 2022: Mark Kelly Faces Tight Race With Blake Masters; Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake In Dead Heat for Governorship. Camille. Mumford. September 9, 2022. Emerson Polling.
  95. Web site: New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech. Krista. Chavez. September 13, 2022. NetChoice.
  96. Web site: Blueprint Polling (D) . May 19, 2022 . May 18, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220518173255/https://blueprintpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/051822-BPP-AZ-Survey-1.pdf . dead .
  97. Web site: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R). .
  98. Web site: Bendixen/Amandi International. .
  99. Web site: J.L. Partners. .
  100. Web site: YouGov.
  101. Web site: Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
  102. Web site: Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
  103. Web site: J.L. Partners/Daily Mail.
  104. Web site: 1983 Labs.
  105. Web site: Age and economy top concerns of battleground state voters in pre-debate poll - Washington Examiner. Naomi. Lim. June 27, 2024.
  106. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (2-4 May 2024). May 13, 2024.
  107. Web site: AZ General Election Poll: Democrats Hold Slight Edge - Data Orbital. May 7, 2024.
  108. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (14-17 March 2024). March 25, 2024.
  109. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (28-30 December 2023). January 8, 2024.
  110. Web site: Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27-29 November 2023). December 5, 2023.
  111. News: What's Behind Kennedy's Poll Numbers? Voters Dread a Trump-Biden Rematch.. Reid J.. Epstein. Ruth. Igielnik. Camille. Baker. The New York Times . November 7, 2023. NYTimes.com.
  112. Web site: Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
  113. News: Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds. The New York Times . November 5, 2023. NYTimes.com.

This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "2024 United States presidential election in Arizona".

Except where otherwise indicated, Everything.Explained.Today is © Copyright 2009-2024, A B Cryer, All Rights Reserved. Cookie policy.