2024 United States presidential election in Alaska explained

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in Alaska
Turnout:55.8% (4.87 pp)
Country:Alaska
Type:Presidential
College Voted:no
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in Alaska
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in Alaska
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:JD Vance
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Popular Vote1:184,458
Percentage1:54.54%
Nominee2:Kamala Harris
Home State2:California
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Tim Walz
Popular Vote2:140,026
Percentage2:41.41%
Map Size:350px
Electoral Vote1:3
Electoral Vote2:0

The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This is the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee. However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.

Ever since Alaska started voting in presidential races in 1960, the only time its electoral votes did not go to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964. Alaska is the only Republican-leaning state on the West Coast. In 2020, Trump won Alaska, but by 10 percentage points, much less than Republicans in the past like George W. Bush's 26% victory in the state in 2004.

While Republicans were still heavily favored to carry the state in 2024, Alaska has shifted closer to the center since the 2010s and is now considered a moderately red state.

Trump won Alaska by 13%, a modest improvement from his 10% win in 2020. While Harris managed to narrowly retain Anchorage for the Democrats, Trump improved in virtually all of the rest of the state, particularly areas in the north and west with large Alaska Native populations. Key to Trump's victory in the state were landslide margins to his favor in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Valley. He even managed to obtain over 80% of the vote in the sparsely populated Southeast Fairbanks Census Area. Harris's best area was Juneau, the state capital.

Primary elections

Republican caucus

See main article: 2024 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses. The Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Democratic caucus

The Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.

General election

Candidates

The following candidates qualified for the general election:

Voters did not have the option to write in candidates for president and vice president. This was the first presidential election in Alaska to use ranked choice (instant runoff) voting.

Independent candidate Cornel West appeared on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportDecember 19, 2023
align=left Inside ElectionsApril 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallJune 13, 2024
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The HillAugust 26, 2024
align=left CNalysisSeptember 15, 2024
align=left CNNJanuary 14, 2024
align=left The EconomistNovember 3, 2024
538June 11, 2024
NBC NewsOctober 6, 2024
YouGovNovember 1, 2024
Split TicketNovember 1, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Kamala
Harris
Other /
Undecided
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-10-22 October 20–22, 20241,703 (LV)± 2.4%55%45%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-10-09 October 8–9, 20241,254 (LV)± 2.9%54%46%
Cygnal (R)data-sort-value=2024-09-01 August 30 – September 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%43%4%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Kamala
Harris
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Other /
Undecided
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-10-22 October 20–22, 20241,703 (LV)± 2.4%51%43%7%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-10-09 October 8–9, 20241,254 (LV)± 2.9%50%43%7%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-09-29 September 27–29, 20241,182 (LV)± 2.9%52%43%6%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2024-09-12 September 11–12, 20241,254 (LV)47%42%5%6%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategiesdata-sort-value="2024-05-01" April 13–21, 2024248 (LV)50%43%7%
Data for Progress (D)data-sort-value=2024-03-08 February 23 – March 2, 20241,120 (LV)± 3.0%53%41%6%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2023-10-18 October 13–18, 20231,375 (LV)45%37%19%
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2023-07-21 July 18–21, 20231,336 (LV)43%36%21%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Joe
Biden
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Alaska Survey Researchdata-sort-value=2023-10-18 October 13–18, 20231,375 (LV)37%29%17%17%
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Alaska[1]
PartyCandidate
Votes%±%
Republican
JD Vance
184,45854.54%+1.71%
Democratic
Tim Walz
140,02641.41%-1.36%
Independent (withdrawn)
Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)
5,6701.68%N/A
Libertarian
Mike ter Maat
3,0400.90%-2.38%
Independent
Butch Ware
2,3420.69%N/A
Aurora
Melina Abdullah
1,1270.33%N/A
Constitution
Stephen Broden
8120.24%-0.07%
American Solidarity
Lauren Onak
7020.21%N/A
Total votes338,177100.00%

Boroughs that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: State of Alaska 2024 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 5, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS. November 30, 2024. November 30, 2024. Alaska Division of Elections.