| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Country: | West Virginia |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Glenn Elliott WV.jpg |
| Nominee1: | Glenn Elliott |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Jim Justice |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Joe Manchin |
| Before Party: | Independent (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. The Democratic nominee is Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and the Republican nominee is Governor Jim Justice. The winner will succeed independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who is not seeking election to a third term.[1] [2] Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024.[3]
The election is considered the most likely Senate pickup for Republicans in 2024. Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931.
Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[4] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[5] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are U.S. Representative Alex Mooney and Governor Jim Justice.
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought reelection.[6] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[7] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.[8]
The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that Republicans hold both of West Virginia's Senate seats and the first time since 1931 that elected Republicans hold both seats. If they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1909 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.
| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $295,678 | $238,895 | $56,782 | |
| Glenn Elliott (D) | $125,407 | $60,071 | $65,335 | |
| Don Blankenship (D) | $1,000 | $0 | $1,085 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[12] | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Jim Justice (R) | $2,956,027 | $2,024,749 | $931,451 | |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $3,266,887 | $2,629,525 | $637,362 | |
| Zane Lawhorn (R) | $50,452 | $50,452 | $0 | |
| Bryan McKinney (R) | $7,225 | $6,781 | $135 | |
| Janet McNulty (R) | $226 | $3,149 | $0 | |
| Don Lindsay (R) | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Chris Rose (R) | $18,215 | $18,215 | $0 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10% | – | ||
| Research America | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% | ||
| Osage Research | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% | ||
| NMB Research | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% | ||
| Research America | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% | ||
| Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% | ||
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R) | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3% | 22% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% | ||
| Orion Strategies | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% | ||
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% | |
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[22] | May 17, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[23] | May 9, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | April 17, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[25] | June 8, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily | May 4, 2023 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[26] | November 21, 2023 |
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Glenn Elliot (D) | $252,262 | $183,127 | $69,135 | |
| Jim Justice (R) | $3,680,408 | $2,881,158 | $799,423 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% | ||
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% | ||
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |