| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Country: | West Virginia |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in West Virginia |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Jim Justice Rock Branch Elementary 2023.jpg |
| Nominee1: | Jim Justice |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 514,079 |
| Percentage1: | 68.80% |
| Nominee2: | Glenn Elliott |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 207,548 |
| Percentage2: | 27.80% |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Joe Manchin |
| Before Party: | Independent politician |
| After Election: | Jim Justice |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and Republican Governor Jim Justice were seeking their first term in office. Justice will succeed independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term.[1]
Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent.[2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.
Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, this seat was universally expected to be easily picked up by Republicans in 2024. Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931. This is the first time the Republicans won this Senate seat since 1956. This is the first time since 2014 that Republicans won an open seat.
Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[3] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[4] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are Congressman Alex Mooney and Governor Jim Justice.
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election.[5] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[6] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.[7]
| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $295,678 | $238,895 | $56,782 | |
| Glenn Elliott (D) | $125,407 | $60,071 | $65,335 | |
| Don Blankenship (D) | $1,000 | $0 | $1,085 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[11] | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Jim Justice (R) | $2,956,027 | $2,024,749 | $931,451 | |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $3,266,887 | $2,629,525 | $637,362 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10% | – | ||
| Research America | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% | ||
| Osage Research | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% | ||
| NMB Research | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% | ||
| Research America | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% | ||
| Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% | ||
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R) | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3% | 22% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% | ||
| Orion Strategies | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% | ||
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% | |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% | |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[21] | May 17, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[22] | May 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | April 17, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] | June 8, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily | May 4, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[25] | November 21, 2023 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[26] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Split Ticket[27] | October 23, 2024 | ||
| 538[28] | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Glenn Elliott (D) | $252,262 | $183,127 | $69,135 | |
| Jim Justice (R) | $3,680,408 | $2,881,158 | $799,423 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Glenn Elliott (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America | data-sort-value="2024-09-01" | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | 62% | 10% | |
| Kaplan Strategies | June 3, 2024 | 464 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 60% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% | ||
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – | ||
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – | ||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% | ||
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Justice won both congressional districts.[29]
| District | Elliott | Justice | Representative | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 70% | Carol Miller | |||
| 28% | 68% | Alex Mooney (118th Congress) | |||
| Riley Moore (119th Congress) |