| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia |
| Country: | Virginia |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Virginia |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Tim Kaine 116th official portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Tim Kaine |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Hung Cao |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Tim Kaine |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Republican nonprofit founder Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.[1]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2] [3] [4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5] [6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.
| Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Hung Cao (R) | $2,508,562 | $2,398,405 | $202,637 | |
| Jonathan Emord (R) | $932,828 | $897,923 | $34,905 | |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $340,558 | $315,309 | $25,249 | |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $930,240 | $601,089 | $329,151 | |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $556,762 | $536,262 | $20,499 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[14] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[15] | August 9, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[16] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] | June 8, 2024 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[19] | November 21, 2023 |
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $15,990,927 | $10,698,945 | $7,811,645 | |
| Hung Cao (R) | $3,051,361 | $2,729,334 | $414,508 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Hung Cao (R) | Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 38% | 10% | 3% | |
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 4% | 8% | |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (A) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 33% | 5% | 20% | |
| 265 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 34% | 4% | 19% | |||
| July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (A) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 32% | 7% | 15% | ||
| 544 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | 6% | 13% | |||
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% | |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% | |||
| Virginia Commonwealth University | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 38% | 14% | – | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Glenn Youngkin (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 7% | ||
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10% | 10% |