2024 United States Senate election in Ohio should not be confused with 2024 Ohio Senate election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio |
| Country: | Ohio |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Ohio |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Ohio |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | File:Bernie Moreno by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Bernie Moreno |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,857,383 |
| Percentage1: | 50.09% |
| Nominee2: | Sherrod Brown |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 2,650,949 |
| Percentage2: | 46.47% |
| Map Size: | 210px |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Sherrod Brown |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Bernie Moreno |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Image1 Size: | x150px |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno by 3.6 percent.[1] [2] Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.[3]
This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). Brown's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the senate majority in 2024.[4]
Moreno defeated Brown by 3.6 percentage points, which was a slightly larger margin than expected. Moreno's campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump defeating Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in the state by 11.2 percentage points in the concurrent presidential election, and it also secured an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2024 elections. Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election, receiving around 2.6% more of the vote, it was still not enough to win. The victory gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's US Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As US Senator JD Vance was elected Vice President of the United States, Moreno will become Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.
After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points.
Republican JD Vance, now the 2024 Republican vice presidential nominee, defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by slightly over 6 points.[5] [6]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[7] [8] [9] Brown led most polls for most of the year.[10]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown | Shontel Brown | Tim Ryan | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% | |||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Participant Absent Non-invitee Invitee Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | ||||||
| 1 | Jan. 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey | FOX 8 | ||||
| 2 | Feb. 19, 2024 | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer | Spectrum News | ||||
| 3 | Mar. 6, 2024 | WLWT | Sheree Paolello | YouTube | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Matt Dolan (R) | $11,425,814 | $9,089,493 | $2,383,077 | |
| Bernie Moreno (R) | $9,735,460 | $7,338,751 | $2,396,709 | |
| Frank LaRose (R) | $2,217,016 | $1,625,972 | $591,043 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | Other | Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | March 17–18, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 16% | 44% | – | |||||
| Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | data-sort-value=2024-03-16 | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 19% | 29% | – | 21% | |||
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | <1,298 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 27% | 34% | – | |||||
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 18% | 16% | 22% | – | 44% | ||||
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 443 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 32% | ||||
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2024-03-05" | February 27 – March 3, 2024 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 21% | 29% | – | 23% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | February 25–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 21% | 31% | – | 27% | ||||
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% | ||||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% | |||
| SurveyUSA | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 35% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% | |||
| co/efficient (R) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% | |||
| Emerson College/WJW-TV | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32% | 25% | |||
| Data for Progress (D) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 43% | |||
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV) | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% | ||||
| Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% | ||||
| Suffolk/USA Today | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% | ||||
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% | ||||
| Causeway Solutions (R) | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | September 25, 2024 | ||
| Inside Elections[27] | September 26, 2024 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[29] | September 27, 2024 | |
| Elections Daily[30] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| CNalysis[31] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[32] | September 28, 2024 | |
| Split Ticket[33] | October 23, 2024 | ||
| 538[34] | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | $91,399,138 | $88,358,633 | $4,411,749 | |
| Bernie Moreno (R) | $24,237,971 | $21,447,672 | $2,636,429 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[35] | ||||
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Sherrod Brown (D) | Bernie Moreno (R) | Undecided | Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.8% | 5.1% | Moreno +0.7 | |||
| RealClearPolitics | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.3% | 48.0% | 5.7% | Moreno +1.7% | |||
| 270toWin | October 10 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.3% | 47.0% | 5.7% | Brown +0.3 | |||
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 4.3% | Moreno +2.1 | |||
| Average | 46.9% | 47.9% | 5.2% | Moreno +1.0 | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Bernie Moreno (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2024 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% | ||
| AtlasIntel | November 1–4, 2024 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 48% | – | 6% | ||
| 48% | 52% | – | – | ||||||
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% | ||
| Miami University | October 28–30, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 2% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% | ||
| ActiVote | October 14–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – | ||
| J.L. Partners (R) | October 22-24, 2024 | 997 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 52% | 3% | – | ||
| University of Akron | September 12 – October 24, 2024 | 1,241 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | October 10–21, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 7% | ||
| ActiVote | September 23 – October 20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 52% | – | – | ||
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 6% | ||
| The Washington Post | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 3% | ||
| 1,002 (RV) | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% | |||||
| Marist College | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | – | 2% | ||
| 1,511 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 2% | ||||
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | September 18–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | September 21–26, 2024 | 687 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% | ||
| 687 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | ||||
| ActiVote | August 16 – September 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – | – | ||
| RMG Research | September 18–20, 2024 | 781 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 5% | – | ||
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,488 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,558 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2024-09-03" | August 31 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-08-17" | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | – | 11% | |
| ActiVote | data-sort-value="2024-08-13" | July 20 – August 12, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52.5% | 47.5% | – | – | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | data-sort-value="2024-08-01" | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 1% | 11% | |
| Remington Research Group (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 7% | |
| Marist College | data-sort-value=2024-06-06 | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% | |
| National Public Affairs | data-sort-value=2024-05-29 | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – | – | |
| Primary elections held | |||||||||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | data-sort-value=2024-03-16 | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% | |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 12% | ||
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 20% | ||
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 34% | 6% | 21% | ||
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% | ||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2023-11-13" | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | – | 26% | |
| Data for Progress (D) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% | |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% | ||
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% | |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% | ||
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Matt Dolan (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | data-sort-value=2024-03-16 | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% | |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 12% | ||
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 39% | – | 18% | ||
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 34% | 7% | 22% | ||
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% | ||
| Emerson/WJW-TV | data-sort-value="2023-11-13" | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | – | 22% | |
| Data for Progress (D) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% | |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% | ||
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% | |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Frank LaRose (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | data-sort-value=2024-03-16 | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% | |
| East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 12% | ||
| SurveyUSA | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% | ||
| Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 33% | 7% | 21% | ||
| Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% | ||
| Emerson/WJW-TV | data-sort-value="2023-11-13" | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | – | 24% | |
| Data for Progress (D) | data-sort-value="2023-11-09" | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% | |
| Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% | ||
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% | ||
| Ohio Northern University< | ---This google drive is a pdf of a poll by Ohio Northern University---> | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% | |
| Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% | ||
| East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% | ||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Moreno won 9 of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.[36]
| District | Brown | Moreno | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 43% | Greg Landsman | ||||
| 29% | 67% | Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress) | ||||
| David Taylor (119th Congress) | ||||||
| 71% | 26% | Joyce Beatty | ||||
| 34% | 62% | Jim Jordan | ||||
| 38% | 58% | Bob Latta | ||||
| 37% | 60% | Michael Rulli | ||||
| 48% | 49% | Max Miller | ||||
| 40% | 57% | Warren Davidson | ||||
| 48% | 47% | Marcy Kaptur | ||||
| 49% | 48% | Mike Turner | ||||
| 78% | 19% | Shontel Brown | ||||
| 36% | 60% | Troy Balderson | ||||
| 52% | 44% | Emilia Sykes | ||||
| 44% | 52% | David Joyce | ||||
| 47% | 49% | Mike Carey |