| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
| Country: | New Mexico |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in New Mexico |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Turnout: | 65.3% |
| Image1: | Heinrich Official Headshot 2019 (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Martin Heinrich |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 497,333 |
| Percentage1: | 55.06% |
| Nominee2: | Nella Domenici |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 405,978 |
| Percentage2: | 44.94% |
| Map Size: | 230px |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Martin Heinrich |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Martin Heinrich |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.[1] Republicans had not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[9] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[10] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | October 30, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily[13] | May 4, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[14] | November 21, 2023 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[15] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Split Ticket[16] | October 30, 2024 | ||
| 538[17] | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $12,502,263 | $10,330,618 | $2,826,618 | |
| Nella Domenici (R) | $4,777,524 | $4,377,754 | $399,769 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18] | ||||
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Undecided | Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 38.9% | 12.7% | Heinrich +9.5 | |||
| RCP | June 13 – October 26, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 39.3% | 12.0% | Heinrich +9.4 | |||
| 270ToWin | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.5% | 44.5% | 5.0% | Heinrich +6.0% | |||
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.8% | 43.1% | 6.1% | Heinrich +7.7% | |||
| Average | 49.6% | 41.5% | 8.9% | Heinrich +8.1% | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | 1% | |||
| Research & Polling Inc. | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 7% | |||
| SurveyUSA | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 47% | 34% | – | 19% | |||
| Research & Polling Inc. | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 38% | 4% | 9% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 11% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 25–28, 2024 | 488 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 33% | 4% | 19% | |||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-08-23" | August 20–22, 2024 | 965 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 37% | 4% | 9% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 12–15, 2024 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 36% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-06" | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 34% | 4% | 21% | ||
| 1892 Polling (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 10% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2024-06-11" | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% | ||
| Red Oak Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-11" | May 7–19, 2024 | 1,800 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% | ||
| 1892 Polling (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-01" | March 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | – | – |