2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska explained

Election Name:2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Country:Nebraska
Type:presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2030 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Next Year:2030
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Image1:Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), official portrait, 118th United States Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Deb Fischer
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee2:Dan Osborn
Party2:Independent (United States)
U.S. senator
Before Election:Deb Fischer
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2024 United States Senate election in Nebraska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Nebraska.[1] Since there will also be a special election for Nebraska’s other Senate seat, this marks the first time since 1954 where both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election. Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024.[2]

Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer was first elected in 2012 to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Ben Nelson and was re-elected in 2018. Fischer will seek a third term, despite having previously pledged to retire.[3]

Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and union leader who led the strike at Kellogg's Omaha plant in 2021, is running as an independent. No Democrats filed to run for the seat, which created speculation that Democrats may support Osborn in the general election.[4] However, due to Osborn's rejection of all party support, state party chair Jane Kleeb stated that they would look for a write-in candidate.[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

Due to Dan Osborn's independent candidacy, the Nebraska Democratic Party had originally not intended to field a candidate, planning to endorse Osborn on May 18. However, on May 15, Osborn stated that he would not accept the help of any political party.[5] This led to a condemnation by state party chair Jane Kleeb, who said that Osborn had previously promised to work with them in exchange for them not running a candidate. Due to Osborn's announcement taking place the day after the state's primary, Kleeb announced that they would be looking for a write-in candidate to run under the party banner in November.[8]

Independent

Declared

Fundraising

Legal Marijuana NOW primary

The Legal Marijuana NOW primary attracted controversy, with one candidate, Kerry Eddy, admitting that she entered the race with the intention of winning the nomination and then dropping out. Eddy, who was a registered Democrat until March 2024, supports independent candidate Dan Osborn, and feared that the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nominee could pull votes away from Osborn, who supports legalizing marijuana. Party chair Mark Elworth Jr. denounced Eddy's plan as "shenangians." The party instead supported Ken Peterson, who had been recruited to run by Elworth. Peterson alleged that supporters of Osborn had repeatedly urged him to drop out of the race. Osborn's campaign denied having any involvement in the Legal Marijuana NOW primary, though a pro-Osborn super PAC spent over $30,000 supporting Eddy's campaign.[10]

Withdrew after nomination

Eliminated in primary

Aftermath

After Kerry Eddy won the May primary by a wide margin, she said she was re-evaluating whether or not to drop out of the race. Complicating Eddy's plan is that if she rejected the Legal Marijuana NOW Party's nomination, the party could simply name a replacement nominee. Mark Elworth Jr. has pledged to seek the party's nomination for Senate if Eddy drops out.[12] It was also suggested that Elworth could use his ballot line to nominate a Democrat.[5]

Eddy dropped out of the race on July 30 and endorsed Osborn. The party has until September 3 to name a replacement nominee.[11]

Libertarian Party

In March 2024, independent candidate Dan Osborn sought the support of the Nebraska Libertarian Party. However, he decided against this, instead running as an independent without any party's support.[5]

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[13] November 9, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[14] November 9, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] November 9, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] June 8, 2024
align=left Elections Daily[17] May 4, 2023
align=left CNalysis[18] November 21, 2023

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Deb Fischer (R)$6,263,797$3,778,940$2,996,473
Dan Osborn (I)$1,645,585$995,866$649,719
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deb
Fischer (R)
Dan
Osborn (I)
Undecided
YouGovJuly 31 - August 12, 2024500 (RV)± 5.2%43%41%16%
Red Wave Strategy Group/
Impact Research
July 8–11, 2024500 (RV)42%42%16%
Public Policy Polling (D)April 24–25, 2024737 (RV)± 3.6%37%33%30%
Change Research (D)November 13–16, 20231,048 (LV)± 3.1%[20] 38%40%22%
Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn vs. Kerry Eddy

Results

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: United States Senate elections, 2024 . 2022-07-12 . Ballotpedia . en.
  2. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-05-13 . www.ncsl.org.
  3. Web site: Walton. Don. Fischer says she'll seek third Senate term in 2024. 2021-05-14. JournalStar.com. May 14, 2021 . en.
  4. Web site: Despite gun divide Dems leaning toward Osborn for Senate. central.newschannelnebraska.com.
  5. Web site: Dan Osborn spurns Democrats, other parties whose help he sought in Senate race. Sanderford. Aaron. May 15, 2024. May 15, 2024. Nebraska Examiner.
  6. News: Sen. Deb Fischer officially announces run for a third term. . 28 June 2023 . 28 June 2023 .
  7. News: Nebraska Statewide Candidate List . Nebraska Secretary of State . January 5, 2024.
  8. Web site: Nebraska Democratic Party Statement on Dan Osborn. May 15, 2024. May 15, 2024.
  9. News: . September 21, 2023 . September 21, 2023 . Hammel . Paul . Omaha steamfitter/union leader Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent U.S. Sen. Deb. Fischer.
  10. News: May 14, 2024 . In the Nebraska marijuana party's Senate primary, 'a daring plan' angers loyalists . Wegley, Andrew . May 12, 2024 . .
  11. News: . August 1, 2024 . Kerry Eddy leaves Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race, endorses Osborn over Fischer. July 30, 2024 . Sanderford, Aaron .
  12. News: May 15, 2024 . Wegley, Andrew . May 15, 2024 . Nebraska marijuana party candidate tied to Dan Osborn wins primary, mulls future . .
  13. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
  14. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
  15. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  16. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . June 8, 2024.
  17. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
  18. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.
  19. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Nebraska . fec.gov . . August 5, 2024.
  20. Web site: Observers question poll indicating a close U.S. Senate race between Deb Fischer and Dan Osborn . 2024-06-12 . Nebraska Public Media . en.