| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Montana |
| Country: | Montana |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Montana |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Montana |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | JonTester (cropped 2).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Jon Tester |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Tim Sheehy |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Jon Tester |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term. He is being challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[1]
This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[2] Republicans last held both of Montana's Senate seats in 1911.
Montana is generally considered a strongly red state at the federal level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. As of May 2024, Republicans control both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, both houses of the state legislature, and the governorship.
In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester is popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race is considered to be a tossup. Most polls initially showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy has since gained an edge. Tester is widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting.[3] [4] [5]
On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[6] [7]
After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[8] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[9] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[10]
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Brad Johnson (R) | $42,967 | $39,697 | $3,270 | |
| Tim Sheehy (R) | $10,547,437 | $8,324,164 | $2,223,272 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Brad Johnson | Matt Rosendale | Tim Sheehy | Other/Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | November 12–14, 2023 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.28% | – | 24% | 40% | 36% | |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | October 23–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 35% | 38% | 21% | |
| 0% | 41% | 44% | 15% | |||||
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 418 (LV) | ? | – | 52% | 21% | 28% | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 19–20, 2023 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 64% | 10% | 26% | |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[22] | November 30, 2023 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[23] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | November 9, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[25] | July 11, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily[26] | May 4, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[27] | July 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[28] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Jon Tester (D) | $43,775,556 | $33,373,881 | $10,882,249 | |
| Tim Sheehy (R) | $14,065,648 | $10,795,082 | $3,270,566 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[29] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Tim Sheehy (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | – | 7% | |
| RMG Research | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 44% | 2% | 4% | |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | data-sort-value="2024-08-12" | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 51% | – | 4% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-08-08" | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 5% | |
| Remington Research Group (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | – | 45% | 50% | – | 5% | |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 47% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 4% | 4% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% | ||
| 43% | 46% | 4% | 7% | ||||||
| J.L. Partners | March 26–29, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% | ||
| Emerson College | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% | ||
| SurveyUSA | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 35% | 6% | 21% | ||
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | – | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Matt Rosendale (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 4% | 7% | ||
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | ? | 43% | 46% | – | 11% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |