| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Country: | Missouri |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Josh Hawley, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Josh Hawley |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Lucas Kunce |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Josh Hawley |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Image1 Size: | x150px |
| Image2 Size: | x150px |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic attorney Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]
From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[2]
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[3]
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[4]
Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.
| Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| December Harmon (D) | $16,524 | $15,578 | $945 | |
| Lucas Kunce (D) | $11,193,778 | $6,959,981 | $4,241,078 | |
| Karla May (D) | $53,962 | $48,314 | $5,647 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[12] | ||||
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[16] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[17] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | November 9, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[19] | June 8, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[20] | May 4, 2023 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[21] | November 21, 2023 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Other | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 5% | 10% | |
| Remington Research Group | March 6–8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% | |
| Emerson College | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 30% | 7% | 20% | |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 8% | |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% | |
| GQR Research (D) | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.34% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% | |