| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland |
| Country: | Maryland |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Maryland |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Maryland |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Angela Alsobrooks Sep2023.jpg |
| Nominee1: | Angela Alsobrooks |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Larry Hogan |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Ben Cardin |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. Democratic Prince George's County executive Angela Alsobrooks and Republican former governor Larry Hogan are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin, who is not seeking re-election after three terms. The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1]
Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024.[2] Alsobrooks defeated Representative David Trone to win the Democratic nomination with 53% of the vote, while Hogan won the Republican nomination with 64% of the vote against minimal opposition.
See also: Political party strength in Maryland. At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 presidential election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs.[3] Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, seven out of eight House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.
Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970. Although the entry of former Maryland governor Larry Hogan is expected to make the race more competitive, the winner of the Democratic primary is favored to win in the general election given that Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state of Maryland since 1980. The decline of split-ticket voting in U.S. Senate races is expected to favor the Democrats for this race.[4] [5] [6] [7] Hogan led in most polls through April 2024,[8] but polls in May showed both Trone and Alsobrooks leading against Hogan, and a higher number of undecided voters.[9] Alsobrooks continued to lead Hogan in general election polling, but with a smaller lead than Democrats usually enjoy in Maryland.[10]
In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire.[11] [12] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement,[13] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.
The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate.[14] He was joined by Trone and Alsobrooks later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements,[15] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment[16] [17] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $61 million in personal loans,[18] which he said protects him from political influence and would allow the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to focus its resources on more competitive races.[19] [20] Trone suggested that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race.[21] Despite Trone's ad blitz, independent polling portrayed him as only the slight favorite in the Democratic primary.[22] [23]
During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records,[24] [25] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members.[26] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career.[27] [28] Candidates campaigned heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which was seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary[29] [30] as Trone and Alsobrooks were expected to dominate in their respective home counties of Montgomery and Prince George's County, which are of similar sizes and were considered likely to cancel each other out in the primary results.[31] This was not the case, as Alsobrooks not only bested Trone in Montgomery County, but also in most of Maryland's other urban counties.[32]
Alsobrooks and Trone, who were viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners,[33] [34] faced controversies that had the potential to damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor was scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept,[35] while Trone faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More[36] [37] and for political gaffes made during the campaign,[38] [39] [40] including his accidental use of a racial slur during a congressional hearing.[41] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet, and suggested she would be influenced by the corporations that had donated to her campaign.[42] Alsobrooks and some of her supporters, including Maryland treasurer Dereck E. Davis and Prince George's County councilmember Jolene Ivey, expressed concerns that Trone's comments toward Alsobrooks and her supporters could make coalescing around Trone difficult if he becomes the Democratic nominee; Trone supporters, including state delegate Joseline Peña-Melnyk, dismissed these concerns. Peña-Melnyk said that Democrats should "focus on the issues" going into the election and not "make that mistake again" as happened with Larry Hogan's victory in 2014.[43] [44] In interviews with WTOP-FM before the primary election, both candidates said that they will support the Democratic nominee in the general election.[45] [46]
Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks, leaving a contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary.[47] Alsobrooks was seen as the early frontrunner of the Democratic primary, but momentum quickly built up behind Trone's campaign as he self-funded his campaign and its nonstop media blitz, which increased his name recognition and approval ratings in polling and overwhelmed the Alsobrooks campaign's resources.[48] The Democratic primary has been compared to the primary in Maryland's 2016 U.S. Senate election, in which Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards. Upon former governor Larry Hogan's entry into the race, the Democratic primary largely transformed into a contest to determine which candidate had the best chance of defeating him, with candidates shifting from talking about their experience and leadership styles to talking about national issues—such as abortion, the U.S. Supreme Court, and Donald Trump—and criticizing Hogan's legislative record as governor.[49]
Alsobrooks trailed Trone in public opinion polls for most of the Democratic primary, but enjoyed a surge of support in the final weeks of the election as voters finally tuned into the election and while Trone's campaign suffered from various gaffes he had made on the campaign trail.[50] She defeated Trone in the Democratic primary election on May 14, 2024,[51] with her support largely coming from the state's highly-populated and urban counties, especially in her home base of Prince George's County, while majority votes for Trone came from Maryland's rural areas and Frederick County.
A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes.
A televised debate between Alsobrooks and Trone hosted by WBAL-TV and WRC-TV was set to be held on April 23, 2024, but was cancelled after Trone refused to commit to the debate.[70] Both campaigns agreed to attend a different televised debate hosted by WBFF and WJLA-TV a few days later, which was held on April 19.[71] [72] A second televised debate was held by WDCW on April 29, 2024, which was attended by Alsobrooks while Trone declined to attend.
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < | ----> Participant Absent Non-invitee < | ----> Invitee Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Alsobrooks | Crews | Frydenborg | Trone | Others | |||||||
| 1[73] | Oct 24, 2023 | Maryland Federation of NARFE | Barbara Cuffee | N/A | A | N | N | – | |||
| 2[74] | Nov 3, 2023 | Maryland Democratic Party | Sam Shoge | N/A | N | N | |||||
| 3[75] | Dec 3, 2023 | Latino Democrats of Prince George's County | Patricia Villone William Ford | Website | N | N | |||||
| 4[76] | Mar 2, 2024 | Montgomery County Women's Democratic Club | Jennifer Rubin | N/A | |||||||
| 5[77] | Mar 8, 2024 | Prince George's County NAACP | Ebony McMorris Jordan Howlette | YouTube | N | N | – | ||||
| 6[78] | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club | Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi | A | N | A | A | ||||
| 7[79] | Mar 16, 2024 | Baltimore City Democratic State Central Committee | Karenthia Barber | Facebook I Facebook II | N | A | |||||
| 8 | Mar 21, 2024 | League of Women Voters of Maryland | N/A | N/A | A | ||||||
| 9[80] | Mar 28, 2024 | Democratic Club of Leisure World | Louis Peck Erin Cox | N/A | N | N | – | ||||
| 10 | Apr 2, 2024 | Maryland Matters Maryland League of Conservation Voters | Josh Kurtz Staci Hartwell Linda Kohn Sydney Nwuli | YouTube | N | N | – | ||||
| 11[81] | Apr 6, 2024 | Frederick County Democratic Party | N/A | A | – | ||||||
| 12[82] | Apr 7, 2024 | Baltimore County Democratic State Central Committee | Jayne Miller | Facebook X (Twitter) | N | N | A | – | |||
| 13 | Apr 19, 2024 | WBFF The Baltimore Sun | Kai Jackson | YouTube | N | N | – | ||||
| 14[83] | Apr 29, 2024 | WDCW | Chris Flanagan Anna-Lysa Gayle | Website YouTube | N | N | A | – | |||
| 15 | Apr 29, 2024 | First Baptist Church of Glenarden | Lou Holder | A | – | ||||||
| 16[84] | Apr 30, 2024 | Caucus of African American Leaders | Justin J. Pearson | N | – | ||||||
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Angela Alsobrooks (D) | $12,473,586 | $8,913,984 | $3,559,602 | |
| David Trone (D) | $63,609,667 | $66,437,974 | $195,103 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[85] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin | Angela Alsobrooks | David Trone | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | May 2−9, 2024 | 460 (RV) | ± 4.52% | 39% | 34% | 27% | |||
| Emerson College | May 6−8, 2024 | 462 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 44% | 9% | – | ||
| 42% | 41% | 5% | 12% | ||||||
| OpinionWorks | April 7−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | – | 12% | ||
| 29% | 48% | 10% | 12% | ||||||
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | April 8−10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | 17% | ||
| Goucher College | March 19−24, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 42% | >1% | 24% | ||
| SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 28% | 40% | 11% | 21% | ||
| Braun Research | March 5−12, 2024 | 525 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 27% | 34% | – | 39% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | February 13−18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 49% | 1% | 18% | ||
| Emerson College | February 12−13, 2024 | 543 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 17% | 32% | 14% | 37% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | January 18−24, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 45% | 1% | 21% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | November 27–30, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 41% | 1% | 25% | ||
| RMG Research | November 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25% | 45% | 5% | 25% | ||
| Victoria Research | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 31% | 36% | – | 18% | ||
Several Republican candidates entered the race, with the most notable being former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.[86] Retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general John Teichert was long viewed as the frontrunner[87] until Hogan's surprise entry into the race hours before the candidate filing deadline,[88] which prompted Teichert to withdraw from the race on February 16 and endorse Hogan, leaving him with only token opposition remaining in the primary. This comes two years after Hogan declined to run for U.S. Senate against Chris Van Hollen, and it was presumed that a 2024 presidential bid would be more likely for the former governor.[89]
The Republican primary results had the potential to show the rift within the Maryland Republican Party, whose base has grown frustrated with Hogan for opposing former President Donald Trump.[90] [91] Robin Ficker, a perennial candidate and disbarred attorney, positioned himself as a protest candidate against Hogan by aligning himself with Trump, but opinion polls showed Hogan with a substantial lead over Ficker.[92]
Hogan would end up easily defeating Ficker in the Republican primary on May 14, 2024, becoming the Republican nominee for the seat.[93] Hogan's support came largely from the state's highly-populated and urban counties, which tend to vote for Democratic candidates, while Ficker's support came from its rural areas.[94]
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < | ----> Participant Absent Non-invitee < | ----> Invitee Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Barakat | Ficker | Friend | Myrick | Seyoum | |||||||
| 1 | Mar 11, 2024 | Frederick County Conservative Club | Jonathan Jenkins Matthew Foldi | ||||||||
| 2[98] | Mar 21, 2024 | League of Women Voters of Maryland | N/A | N/A | A | A | A | ||||
| 3 | Apr 29, 2024 | First Baptist Church of Glenarden | Lou Holder | A | A | A | A | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Mohammed Barakat (R) | $2,212 | $2,124 | $87 | |
| Robin Ficker (R) | $4,430,740 | $4,427,872 | $1,198 | |
| Lorie Friend (R) | $1,227 | $3,699 | $0 | |
| Larry Hogan (R) | $7,003,571 | $4,340,175 | $2,663,396 | |
| John Myrick (R) | $8,019 | $7,359 | $660 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin | Chris Chaffee | Robin Ficker | Larry Hogan | John Myrick | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 6−8, 2024 | 248 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 2% | 18% | 56% | 2% | 4% | 20% | |||
| OpinionWorks | April 7−10, 2024 | 451 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 2% | 9% | 69% | 3% | 7% | 12% | |||
| SurveyUSA | March 13−18, 2024 | 300 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 4% | 9% | 55% | 1% | 9% | 22% | |||
| Emerson College | February 12−13, 2024 | 246 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 2% | 6% | 43% | 2% | 6% | 43% |
Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023.
The issue of abortion is expected to be a major issue in the general election, with Maryland voters set to vote on enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution alongside the Senate election.[101] Anticipating this, Hogan has sought to move to the left of his party by supporting federal legislation to restore the Roe v. Wade decision and the Maryland abortion referendum, though declining to support the Women's Health Protection Act.[102] Alsobrooks has promised to cosponsor the Women's Health Protection Act[103] and criticized Hogan for his veto of the Abortion Care Access Act in 2022, which expanded the kinds of medical professionals that could perform abortions and provided $3.5 million in state funding to train these professionals.[104] [105]
Alsobrooks is expected to scrutinize Hogan's legislative record—including his vetoes on legislation to require background checks on firearm sales, increase the minimum wage, provide paid family and medical leave, and expand abortion care—and seek to associate him with generic Republicans.[106] [107] [108] Democrats are also likely to try to nationalize the race by reminding voters that a Hogan win could cause Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate, thereby allowing them to block President Joe Biden's agenda and pass Donald Trump's policies. Maryland Governor Wes Moore is also expected to play a role in campaigning against Hogan.[109] [110] Following Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election, Alsobrooks has sought to tie herself closely with presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, believing that her candidacy will have a coattail effect on downballot elections.[111] [112]
Hogan plans to campaign on the issues of immigration, crime, and public safety in the general election while also relying on his popularity with Maryland voters to win over support from moderate Democrats and unaffiliated voters. He is also expected to bring attention to his achievements while governor, including his efforts to cut taxes and his handling of the 2015 Baltimore protests and the COVID-19 pandemic in Maryland.[113] Hogan has criticized Alsobrooks's record on fiscal issues and her handling of crime and policing in Prince George's County, saying that crime has increased during her tenure as county executive and highlighting the county's May 2024 Moody's Ratings outlook downgrade from stable to negative as a result of the statewide Blueprint for Maryland's Future implementation.[114]
Hogan's candidacy has the potential to transform the general election into a test of his popularity, among both Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans 2-to-1 and were key to Hogan's successes in past elections;[115] and Republicans, who may opt against voting in the general election as a result of Hogan's criticism of Trump.[116]
In May 2024, Hogan posted on X (formerly Twitter) to say that Americans should "respect the verdict and the legal process," in reference to any decision made in the Donald Trump hush money trial. Later that day, a jury found Trump guilty on all charges.[117] This caused Hogan backlash among some pro-Trump Republicans, most notably including senior Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita, who replied to Hogan's post saying that Hogan's campaign has "ended";[118] as well Lara Trump, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and daughter-in-law to the former president. Lara Trump said in an interview that "[Hogan] doesn’t deserve the respect of anyone in the Republican Party at this point, and quite frankly, anybody in America." She (and later RNC chairman Michael Whatley)[119] also declined to say whether or not the RNC would withhold monetary support from Hogan's campaign;[120] withholding support from Hogan's campaign would have significant implications for the general election, as the Maryland Republican Party is not as well-resourced as the Maryland Democratic Party.[121] Ultimately, in mid-June 2024, former President Donald Trump endorsed Hogan's senatorial campaign, which may help Hogan among Republicans but may also hurt his performance among Democratic voters.[122]
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[123] | July 11, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[124] | May 9, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[125] | April 17, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[126] | June 8, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[127] | May 4, 2023 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[128] | November 21, 2023 |
There has been some uncertainty around when a debate will be held between Alsobrooks and Hogan in the general election.[129] Shortly after the primary in June 2024, Hogan agreed to attend two debates against Alsobrooks: one hosted by The Baltimore Sun, WBFF, and the University of Baltimore on October 10, 2024, and another hosted by Maryland Public Television and local CBS affiliates (WUSA, WJZ-TV, and WBOC-TV) on a date to be determined.[130] Alsobrooks did not immediately agree to attend these debates, later telling The Baltimore Sun that she had a scheduling conflict that would prevent her from attending the October 10 debate as she would be attending the National Council of Negro Women conference in Baltimore that evening, but has since agreed to a debate hosted by Maryland Public Television and local NBC News affiliates on the morning of October 10. Hogan has not yet accepted this debate, with his campaign team saying that it would wait until Alsobrooks responds to the other MPT debate offered. WTTG and the Capital News Service also invited the two candidates to another debate to be held on September 12, 2024, but neither candidate has accepted the invitation.[131]
On August 20, the Alsobrooks and Hogan campaigns agreed to a single debate—hosted by MPT and local CBS affiliates, and moderated by Chuck Todd—to be held on October 10, 2024.[132]
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Angela Alsobrooks (D) | $12,473,586 | $8,913,984 | $3,559,602 | |
| Larry Hogan (R) | $7,003,571 | $4,340,175 | $2,663,396 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Angela Alsobrooks (D) | Larry Hogan (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential election | |||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 19−20, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% | ||
| 45% | 34% | 5% | 16% | ||||||
| Primary elections held | |||||||||
| Emerson College | May 6−8, 2024 | 1,115 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 38% | – | 14% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 6−7, 2024 | 719 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 37% | – | 17% | ||
| OpinionWorks | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 54% | – | 10% | ||
| Goucher College | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | – | 11% | ||
| Braun Research | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 50% | – | 15% | ||
| Emerson College | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | – | 19% | ||
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 52% | – | 19% | ||
| Victoria Research | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 36% | 42% | – | – | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Trone (D) | Larry Hogan (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | May 6−8, 2024 | 1,115 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 38% | 14% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 6−7, 2024 | 719 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 16% | ||
| OpinionWorks | April 7−10, 2024 | 1,292 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 53% | 7% | ||
| Goucher College | March 19−24, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 10% | ||
| Braun Research | March 5−12, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 49% | 14% | ||
| Emerson College | February 12−13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% | ||
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) | January 30−February 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | 18% | ||
| Victoria Research | November 9–13, 2023 | 813 (LV) | – | 49% | 34% | – |