2024 United States Senate election in Florida explained

Election Name:2024 United States Senate election in Florida
Country:Florida
Type:presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate election in Florida
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2030 United States Senate election in Florida
Next Year:2030
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Image1:File:Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Rick Scott
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee2:Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
U.S. senator
Before Election:Rick Scott
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Republican incumbent Rick Scott is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Primary elections took place on August 20, 2024.[1]

Background

Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.[2]

As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[3]

Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[4] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits consider the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
John Columbus (R)$23,174$22,857$317
Keith Gross (R)$2,449,122$2,440,444$8,679
Rick Scott (R)$29,350,647$26,466,192$4,345,058
Source: Federal Election Commission[12]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Stanley Campbell (D)$1,081,092$687,145$394,415
Rod Joseph (D)$28,596$20,855$7,741
Alan Grayson (D)$728,813$582,703$150,148
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)$12,133,366$7,802,905$4,330,461
Brian Rush (D)$82,333$63,529$18,804
Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[25] November 9, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[26] November 9, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] November 9, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[28] June 8, 2024
align=left Elections Daily[29] May 4, 2023
align=left CNalysis[30] Very Likely RNovember 21, 2023

Polling

Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Rick
Scott (R)
Powell (D)		Other /
Undecided
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research		August 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%47%43%11%
1,040 (LV)± 3.0%47%43%9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)August 6–8, 2024800 (LV)–52%42%7%
University of North FloridaJuly 24–27, 2024774 (LV)± 4.6%47%43%11%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research		June 8–9, 2024883 (A)± 3.3%44%40%16%
771 (LV)± 3.3%45%43%12%
The Tyson Group (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-11" June 6–9, 20241,050 (LV)± 3.0%46%33%21%
CBS News/YouGovdata-sort-value="2024-05-19" May 10–16, 20241,209 (RV)± 3.9%45%37%19%
Cherry Communications (R)data-sort-value=2024-05-10 April 28 – May 7, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%54%39%7%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research		April 15–17, 2024865 (RV)± 3.3%52%35%14%
815 (LV)± 3.3%53%36%12%
USA Today/Ipsosdata-sort-value="2024-04-14" April 5–7, 20241,014 (A)± 4.1%36%26%38%
Emerson CollegeApril 3–7, 2024608 (LV)± 3.0%45%38%16%
Public Policy Polling (D)February 29 – March 1, 2024790 (V)± 3.5%44%41%–
Global Strategy Group (D)July 5–10, 20231,000 (LV)± 3.1%43%44%13%

Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-05-13 . www.ncsl.org.
  2. Web site: Florida 2020 presidential election results . 2023-04-16 . www.cnn.com . en.
  3. Web site: Fineout . Gary . Florida Republicans get a 'win for the ages' . 2023-04-16 . POLITICO . November 9, 2022 . en.
  4. Web site: Florida Full Senate results . 2023-04-16 . www.cnn.com . en.
  5. Web site: Caputo . Marc . 2023-01-26 . Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan . 2023-01-26 . . en.
  6. Web site: Candidate Tracking System . April 22, 2024 . Florida Department of State Division of Elections.
  7. Web site: Ogles . Jacob . Keith Gross launches GOP Primary challenge to Rick Scott . Florida Politics . April 11, 2023.
  8. News: . September 2, 2023 . DeSantis Team Denies Trump's Rumor He'll Drop Out Of Presidential Race To Run For Senate. August 28, 2023 . Dorn . Sara .
  9. News: Rick Scott faces uncertain future after bruising midterm year . December 14, 2022 . One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott]. . Greenwood . Max.
  10. News: Diamond Eye Candidate Report . Frisk . Garrett . July 21, 2023 . July 21, 2023 . We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said..
  11. News: Sixty Days for 3.14.23 — A prime-time look at the 2023 Legislative Regular Session . U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024..
  12. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Florida . fec.gov . . October 16, 2023.
  13. Web site: 2023-08-22 . Former US Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell to challenge Rick Scott for Senate seat - CBS Miami . 2023-08-22 . www.cbsnews.com . en-US.
  14. News: . November 13, 2023 . Brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell challenges Rick Scott for U.S. Senate seat. November 10, 2023 . Fontenay, Blake .
  15. News: Derby . Kevin . February 23, 2023 . Rick Scott Plans to Hit Every County in Florida During Reelection Campaign . June 13, 2023 . Florida Daily.
  16. News: March 5, 2024 . November 20, 2023 . . New group of Dem state lawmakers announce support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate. Perry, Mitch .
  17. Web site: Fineout . Gary . 2023-10-18 . Challenger to Rick Scott drops out of Florida Senate race . 2023-10-18 . POLITICO . en.
  18. Web site: Ogles . Jacob . Alan Grayson withdraws from U.S. Senate race, files in SD 25 . . 11 June 2024 . 11 June 2024.
  19. News: Can Florida Democrats Find Anyone (at All) to Run for Senate? . March 27, 2023.
  20. Web site: Dixon . Matt . Top Florida Democrat passes on challenging Sen. Rick Scott in 2024 . . August 21, 2023 . Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature..
  21. Web site: Covey . Erin . April 4, 2023 . Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats . April 4, 2023.
  22. News: Florida Politics . September 6, 2023 . Anna Eskamani kicks off re-election campaign. September 6, 2023 . Ogles . Jacob .
  23. Web site: Democratic donors hope to recruit NBA legends Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade to run for Senate in Florida. Dixon. Allen. Matt. Jonathan. May 8, 2023. May 8, 2023. NBC News.
  24. News: Florida Politics . September 21, 2023 . September 21, 2023 . Ogles . Jacob . 4 Florida members of Congress endorse Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate.
  25. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
  26. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
  27. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  28. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . June 8, 2024.
  29. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
  30. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.

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