| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona |
| Country: | Arizona |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Arizona |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Ruben Gallego official portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Ruben Gallego |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Kari Lake |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. senator | |
| Before Election: | Kyrsten Sinema |
| Before Party: | Independent |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego and Republican former news anchor Kari Lake are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election after one term.[1] [2] The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]
Primary elections took place on July 30, 2024.[4] Gallego won the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Lake received 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb in the Republican primary. This is Arizona's second statewide election to have Lake as the Republican nominee, following her unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2022.
The race is generally considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings have Gallego as the slight favorite to win.[5] [6]
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices and the state's other U.S. Senate seat, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House's delegation.[7] [8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[10]
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[12] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[13] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[14] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[15]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Gallego | Ruben Gallego | Kathy Hoffman | Regina Romero | Kyrsten Sinema | Greg Stanton | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% | ||
| – | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% | ||
| – | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||||
| – | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||||
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% | ||
| 60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||||
| – | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||||
| – | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||||
| – | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% | ||||||
| Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Kari Lake | $10,352,741 | $8,290,053 | $2,062,687 | |
| Mark Lamb | $2,059,130 | $1,795,730 | $263,400 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kari Lake | Mark Lamb | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 22–23, 2024 | 438 (LV) | ± 4.65% | 49% | 38% | 7% | 2% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 364 (RV) | ± 5.14% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 25% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | 7% | 12% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 9% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Abe Hamadeh | Kari Lake | Mark Lamb | Jim Lamon | Blake Masters | Robson | Brian Wright | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% | ||
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% | ||
| J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Heredia-Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[31] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report | July 5, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections | May 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | April 17, 2024 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[35] | June 8, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily[36] | August 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[37] | August 6, 2024 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[38] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-19" | August 12-15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | ± 3.71% | 44% | 39% | 3% | 14% | |
| NYT/Siena College | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% | ||
| 677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% | ||||
| WPA Intelligence (R) | August 11–13, 2014 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Peak Insights (R) | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | July 31– August 5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% | |
| HighGround | data-sort-value="2024-08-08" | July 30 – August 5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 50% | 39% | – | 12% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | data-sort-value="2024-08-06" | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 567 (LV) | ± 3.79% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% | |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | July 26– August 2, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | – | 7% | |
| Primary elections held | |||||||||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% | |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race | |||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 19–20, 2014 | 736 (RV) | – | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 4% | |
| J.L. Partners (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-17" | July 10–11, 2024 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 44% | – | 3% | |
| YouGov | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 9% | ||
| 793 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 2% | 8% | ||||
| Remington Research Group (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 6% | |
| North Star Opinion Research (R) | June 17–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 9% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% | |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-14" | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | – | 15% | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | data-sort-value="2024-06-12" | May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% | |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | – | 18% | ||
| 501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov | data-sort-value="2024-05-19" | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,214 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | – | 15% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | data-sort-value="2024-05-21" | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% | |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | |
| NYT/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% | ||
| 626 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||||
| Data Orbital | April 27–29, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% | ||
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | – | 12% | ||
| RABA Research | data-sort-value="2024-04-01" | April 9, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 13% | 23% | |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | – | 13% | ||
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | – | 16% | ||
| J.L. Partners (R) | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | – | 10% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | 9% | ||
| Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% | ||
| National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | – | 20% | ||
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | – | 24% | ||
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2% | 7% | ||
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% | ||
| J.L. Partners (R) | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% | ||
| VCreek/AMG (R) | data-sort-value="2023-12-19" | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1% | 7% | |
| Tulchin Research (D) | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6% | 4% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – | ||
| Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% | ||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% | ||
| National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% | ||
| OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% | ||
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – | ||
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Doug Ducey (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% | ||
| 32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||||
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Blake Masters (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% | |
| 32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | |||||
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% | |
| 33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Karrin Taylor Robson (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% | |
| 31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Mark Lamb (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% | ||
| 36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||||
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% | ||
| 33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Brian Wright (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% | |
| 37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |