| Election Name: | 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district |
| Country: | Alaska |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2026 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska |
| Next Year: | 2026 |
| 1Blank: | First round |
| 2Blank: | Maximum round |
| Image1: | Nick_Begich_Official_Campaign_Profile_Photo_%28alt_crop%29.jpg |
| Candidate1: | Nick Begich III |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| 1Data1: | 159,550 48.41% |
| 2Data1: | 164,861 51.22% |
| Candidate2: | Mary Peltola |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| 1Data2: | 152,828 46.37% |
| 2Data2: | 156,985 48.28% |
| Map Size: | 325px |
| U.S. Representative | |
| Before Election: | Mary Peltola |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Nick Begich III |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its . The election coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.
Incumbent Mary Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, sought a second full term in office. Peltola had been elected in an August 2022 special election to succeed deceased Republican Don Young. She won a full term the following November.
In accordance with 2020 Alaska Measure 2, the race was conducted using the state's ranked-choice voting procedures. Eleven candidates challenged Peltola in the August all-party primary. Republicans Nick Begich III, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Matthew Salisbury initially qualified for spots in the ranked-choice general election, but Dahlstrom and Salisbury withdrew shortly after the primary in a show of party unity.[1] The final general election ballot thus featured Peltola, Begich, Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Wayne Howe, and Democratic prisoner Eric Hafner.
Given Alaska's conservative lean, Peltola was considered a top target for Republicans throughout the cycle.[2] By late October, multiple outlets regarded Peltola as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection in the House.[3] [4] Despite Peltola's loss, she did outperform Kamala Harris in the concurrent 2024 presidential election in Alaska by about 10 points, but this was not enough to win.
Begich was declared the winner on November 20, following the tabulation of ranked-choice votes.[5]
| Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Mary Peltola (D) | $7,541,673 | $5,396,920 | $2,836,013 | |
| Nick Begich (R) | $982,905 | $851,591 | $172,548 | |
| Nancy Dahlstrom (R) | $912,308 | $912,308 | $317,617 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[15] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nick Begich (R) | Nancy Dahlstrom (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Other | Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | February 23 – March 4, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 10% | 44% | 2% | 8% | ||||
| Remington Research (R) | December 11–14, 2023 | 672 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 9% | 42% | 9% | 11% |
Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40 Alaska House of Representatives districts.[16] Her top three districts were the fourth district in Southeast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located in Anchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).
On August 23, Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election.[17] Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race.[18] [19] They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and sixth-place finisher Eric Hafner, a Democrat.[19] Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20 year sentence in a federal penitentiary in New York.[20] The Alaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot.[21]
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[22] | September 6, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[23] | October 31, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[25] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[26] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ[27] | October 22, 2024 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mary Peltola (D) | Nick Begich (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Viewpoint (R) | September 14–17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 44% | 6% | 10% | ||
| Cygnal (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% | ||
| American Viewpoint (R) | Late August 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 39% | – | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Mary Peltola (D) | Nick Begich (R) | John Wayne Howe (AIP) | Eric Hafner (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | October 14–16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | |||||
| 1 | 44.5% | 49.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | ||||
| 2 | 45.5% | 49.6% | 4.8% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 47.9% | 52.1% | Elim | Elim |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV round | Mary Peltola (D) | Nick Begich (R) | Nancy Dahlstrom (R) | Chris Bye (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | |||||
| 1 | 47% | 39% | 12% | 3% | ||||
| 2 | 48% | 41% | 12% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | Elim | Elim |
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Independence | Democratic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn | |||||||||
| Peltola | Begich | Howe | Hafner | ||||||
| 1[28] | Aug. 28, 2024 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Michelle Egan | YouTube | |||||
| 2[29] | Oct. 8, 2024 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce KMXT (FM) | Terry Haines | YouTube | |||||
| 3[30] | Oct. 10, 2024 | Alaska Chamber of Commerce | |||||||
| 4 | Oct. 10, 2024 | Alaska Public Media KTUU-TV | Rebecca Palsha Lori Townsend | YouTube | |||||
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||||
| Republican | 159,550 | 48.41% | 159,777 | 48.49% | +267 | 160,044 | 48.77% | +4,817 | 164,861 | 51.22% | ||||
| Democratic | (incumbent) | 152,828 | 46.37% | 152,948 | 46.42% | +1,313 | 154,261 | 47.01% | +2,724 | 156,985 | 48.78% | |||
| Independence | 13,010 | 3.95% | 13,210 | 4.01% | +661 | 13,871 | 4.23% | -13,871 | Eliminated | |||||
| Democratic | 3,417 | 1.04% | 3,558 | 1.08% | -3,558 | Eliminated | ||||||||
| Write-in | 750 | 0.23% | Eliminated | |||||||||||
| Total votes | 329,555 | 329,493 | 328,176 | 321,846 | ||||||||||
| Inactive ballots | 6,360 | +1,317 | 7,677 | +6,330 | 14,007 | |||||||||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||||||||||||