2024 Thurrock Council election explained

Election Name:2024 Thurrock Council election[1] [2] [3]
Country:Essex
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2023 Thurrock Council election
Previous Year:2023
Next Election:2025 Thurrock Council election
Next Year:2025
Seats For Election:17 out of 49 seats to Thurrock Council
Majority Seats:25
Image1:John Kent, Leader of Thurrock Council.jpg
Leader1:John Kent
Party1:Labour Party (UK)
Leaders Seat1:Grays Thurrock
Last Election1:19 seats, 45.1%
Seats Before1:19
Seats After1:27
Seat Change1: 8
Popular Vote1:14,767
Percentage1:52.1%
Leader2:Andrew Jefferies
Party2:Conservative Party (UK)
Last Election2:26 seats, 32.4%
Leaders Seat2:Ockendon
Seats Before2:23
Seats After2:13
Seat Change2: 10
Popular Vote2:8,327
Percentage2:29.4%
Swing2: 3 pp
Image3:Neil Speight, Thurrock Councillor for Stanford-le-Hope West (cropped).jpg
Leader3:Neil Speight
Party3:Independent politician
Leaders Seat3:Stanford-le-Hope West
Last Election3:3 seats, 10.0%
Seats Before3:7
Seats After3:9
Seat Change3: 2
Popular Vote3:4,457
Percentage3:15.7%
Swing3: 5.7 pp
Leader
Posttitle:Leader after election
Before Election:Andrew Jefferies
Conservative
Before Party:No overall control
After Election:John Kent
After Party:Labour Party (UK)

The 2024 Thurrock Council election was held on 2 May 2024 to elect a third of the members of Thurrock Council in Essex, England. It was held on the same day as other local elections across England, including the 2024 Essex police and crime commissioner election. The Labour Party led by John Kent won control of the council for the first time since 2014 from the Conservative Party, which had previously governed in a minority administration with no overall control.[4]

Background

At the previous council election in May 2023, the Labour opposition led by John Kent made gains against the incumbent Conservative administration led by Mark Coxshall.[5] [6] Labour gained five seats, increasing its total share of seats in the council to 19. The Conservatives, now having 26 seats, retained control of the council but saw their majority reduced to three. The Thurrock Independents lost two seats but held one, leaving them with a single councillor. The election also returned three independents not affiliated to any party.[7] [8] Coxshall lost his seat in the election, and later in the month the council elected Conservative Andrew Jefferies as the new leader of the council.[9] The election followed the council's declaration of effective bankruptcy in September 2022, which left it in £1.5 billion of debt.[10]

In July 2023, Conservative councillor Sue Sammons left her party to become an independent in protest of its decision to cut local bus services. This action left the Conservatives with a majority of two on the council.[11] In the same month, the Thurrock Independents de-registered as a political party.[12] The make-up of the council now consisted of five seats being held by independents, 19 held by Labour and 25 held by the Conservatives. The independents in the council later organised themselves into a single group, the Non-Political Alliance of Independent Councillors (NPAIC),[13] [14] with councillor Neil Speight as their leader[15] and spokesman.[16] [17] NPAIC candidates would run in the 2024 election as independents.

In February 2024, it was revealed that the Conservative administration was considering an increase in council tax of 7.99% from April to present a balanced budget for 2024–2025.[18] Council tax had already been increased by 10% the previous year as a condition for additional financial support from the government to help reduce the council's £636 million deficit.[19] The administration also planned to make savings of £18.2 million over the next two years. It had already introduced several measures to cut spending, which included a 7.7% increase in rent for council housing and an introduction of charges for school transport among other measures.

The Conservative administration put forward its economic proposals in its budget for 2024–2025, which was voted on by councillors in March 2024. Conservative councillors were whipped to vote in favour of the budget. Labour abstained from the vote, allowing the budget to pass.[20] Two Conservative councillors, Jack Duffin and Alex Anderson, rebelled against the party leadership and voted against the budget with three NPAIC councillors. Duffin and Anderson were subsequently suspended from the Conservative group as a disciplinary measure and became independents, resulting in the Conservatives losing their majority and the council falling under no overall control.[21] Duffin and Anderson did not join the NPAIC and instead chose to sit alone as unaffiliated independents.[22] Following their suspension, the Conservatives continued to run the council in a minority administration.

Electoral system

The election was held on 2 May 2024, the same day as other local elections across England.[23] All local elections were held under the first-past-the-post voting system. Electors in Thurrock had one vote for a candidate in their ward, with the candidate winning the most votes securing the seat.[24] Electors in Thurrock could also vote in the 2024 Essex police and crime commissioner election which was held on the same day.[25]

Under Thurrock Council's then-electoral system, elections to the council were held annually every three in four years, with a third of its 49 councillors elected to represent one of its 20 wards for a term of four years at each election.[26] As such, three wards were not contested in 2024, including Stifford Clays, Little Thurrock Rectory, and Tilbury Riverside and Thurrock Park. This was the last election held under this system, as all 49 seats are to be contested in elections every four years from May 2025 onwards. This reform was implemented by the government as part of its ongoing intervention in the council following its effective bankruptcy in 2022.[27] [28]

Campaign

The Labour Party and the Conservative Party stood in every ward at the election.[29] Ahead of the election, it was expected that the low national polling numbers of the Conservatives, as well as the financial difficulties faced by the council during the Conservative administration, would influence its outcome, with local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggesting that Labour could regain its traditional control of the council.[30] During the election campaign, Conservative leader Andrew Jefferies acknowledged that the election would be "tough" for his party, but also claimed that Labour had no plan for the borough.[31] He pledged that the Conservatives would not close libraries or cut childrens' and lollipopping services and voiced his party's interest in potential business opportunities such as the Thames Freeport if it remained in power after the election. National Conservative leader and prime minister Rishi Sunak visited Corringham as part of his national campaign to secure votes for his party in the local elections. Sunak refused to say if he would resign if the Conservatives lost power in Thurrock and other local councils in Essex.[32] [33] The national Labour Party identified Thurrock as one of its main targets out of the local elections taking place across the country, with Labour's deputy national campaign co-ordinator Ellie Reeves stating that it was one of the areas the party needed to make gains in to win the 2024 United Kingdom general election.[34] [35] Local Labour leader John Kent warned that Labour would have to "take tough decisions" and could not "promise the earth" amid the financial burden faced by the council, which he blamed on the Conservatives, but promised to cooperate with local communities while protecting services for the elderly and the young and maintaining basic services if his party won power.The strengthened local presence of independent candidates and the Green Party led by Eugene McCarthy, standing in seven and four wards respectively, was also expected to pose a potential challenge to the Conservatives. According to McCarthy, the Greens would focus on building new council homes, investing in high streets and delivering "common-sense" finances. The independents stood in the east of the borough and in North Stifford and Chafford Hundred; according to independent councillor Fraser Massey this council election had the most independent candidates in Thurrock's recent history. The ward of Orsett, traditionally a safe seat for the Conservatives, also attracted attention during the campaign for its three-way contest between former Conservative councillor David Van Day, former Labour mayor and councillor Carl Morris and independent councillor Jack Duffin, who was expelled from the Conservative Party earlier in the year and secured the support of prominent local Conservative activist Brian Little.[36]

Opinion polls

Pollster YouGov identified Thurrock Council as one of sixteen key battleground local authorities in the 2024 local elections, possibly indicative of results in the rest of England and Wales, and therefore used multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling to gauge voting intention in the borough ahead of the election.[37] [38] A poll conducted from 14 April to 29 April and published on 30 April projected significant gains for the Labour Party in the borough, with the overall outcome of the election considered too close to call to predict which party would win control of the council.[39]

Results

Following the election, Labour held 27 of the council's 49 seats, giving them an overall majority on the council for the first time since 2014. Their group leader, John Kent, was formally appointed as the new leader of the council at the subsequent annual council meeting on 22 May 2024.[40] The NPAIC invited the newly elected independent councillors to join their group, with the majority expected to do so;[41] [42] by July 2024, eight of the nine independent councillors were members of the NPAIC.[43] [44]

Results by ward

The Statement of Persons Nominated, which detailed the candidates who stood in each ward, was released by Thurrock Council following the close of nominations on 5 April 2023.[45] One candidate was elected per ward. The results were announced in the early hours of 3 May after votes were counted, with different wards having their results declared from 1:35 AM until the confirmation of the final results at 02:49 AM.

West Thurrock & South Stifford

Notes and References

  1. News: Thurrock wards and how they were decided . 2 May 2024 . 3 May 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  2. News: Local elections 2024: Votes being counted in the last big political test before general election . 3 May 2024 . 3 May 2024 . ITV News.
  3. News: Labour takes control of Thurrock . 3 May 2024 . 3 May 2024 . BBC News.
  4. News: Carter . Ethan . 2 May 2024 . LIVE BLOG - Counting underway for Thurrock Elections . 3 May 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  5. News: Whitehouse . Ellis . 5 May 2023 . Local Elections 2023: Thurrock Council leader loses seat as Conservatives take heavy losses . 4 March 2024 . EssexLive.
  6. News: 5 May 2023 . Labour resurgence in Thurrock but Tories hang on to overall control despite losing leader . 4 March 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  7. News: Boakye . Kwame . 5 May 2023 . Thurrock leader loses seat but Tories retain control . 4 March 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  8. News: Sexton . Christine . 5 May 2023 . Thurrock elections 2023: Conservatives hold despite Labour success . 4 March 2024 . Thurrock Gazette.
  9. News: 25 May 2023 . Sue confirmed as mayor and new leader is voted in . 5 March 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  10. News: Jackson . J. J. . 20 April 2023 . Local elections: Thurrock still battling bankruptcy . 1 May 2024 . East Anglia Bylines.
  11. News: 13 July 2023 . Bus decision is final straw for Tory councillor and she quits Tories . 4 March 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  12. Web site: Thurrock Independents [De-registered 26/07/23] ]. 5 March 2024 . Electoral Commission.
  13. News: Boakye . Kwame . 4 March 2024 . Conservatives lose overall control of Thurrock . 5 March 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  14. News: 29 February 2024 . Tory rebels are ousted following defiance over budget . 5 March 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  15. News: Webb . Caitlin . 3 April 2024 . Government rejects Thurrock's bid for public inquiry into financial collapse . 30 April 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  16. Web site: 31 January 2024 . Agenda and minutes: Council – Wednesday, 31st January, 2024 7.00 pm . 28 March 2024 . Thurrock Council.
  17. News: Sexton . Christine . Speight . Neil . 22 March 2024 . Thurrock Tories accused of 'weaponising racism' for political gain after leader's address to chamber . 28 March 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  18. News: Sexton . Christine . 12 February 2024 . Thurrock Council aiming to raise council tax 7.99 per cent . 5 March 2024 . Thurrock Gazette.
  19. News: Dedman . Simon . 7 February 2024 . Bankrupt authority considers 8% council tax rise . 5 March 2024 . BBC News.
  20. News: Dedman . Simon . 29 February 2024 . In-debt council approves 8% tax rise and cuts . 5 March 2024 . BBC News.
  21. News: Dedman . Simon . 1 March 2024 . Tories lose control of council after budget fallout . 5 March 2024 . BBC News.
  22. Web site: Current councillors . 6 April 2024 . Thurrock Council.
  23. News: Stephenson . Wesley . 26 March 2024 . Local elections 2024: Is there an election in my area? . 28 March 2024 . BBC News.
  24. News: 30 April 2024 . Local elections 2024: When and where are they, and who can vote? . 1 May 2024 . BBC News.
  25. News: 5 April 2024 . Candidates announced for Thurrock Local Elections 2024 . 6 April 2024 . Your Thurrock.
  26. Web site: May 2023 . Thurrock Council Best Value Inspection Report . 28 March 2024 . Essex County Council . 16, 34.
  27. Web site: 2024 . Elections and election results: Election dates . 28 March 2024 . Thurrock Council.
  28. News: Boakye . Kwame . 6 October 2023 . Essex CC stood down as Thurrock's commissioner . 28 March 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  29. News: Sexton . Christine . 15 April 2024 . Local Elections: Thurrock Council candidates . 16 April 2024 . Yellow Advertiser.
  30. News: Rallings . Colin . Thrasher . Michael . 26 March 2024 . Local elections: Councils to watch . 16 April 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  31. News: Dedman . Simon . 30 April 2024 . Local elections 2024: 'Politicians need to come to us' . 30 April 2024 . BBC News.
  32. News: Deady . Elliot . 29 April 2024 . Rishi Sunak visit to DHL warehouse in south Essex today . 1 May 2024 . Basildon Canvey Southend Echo.
  33. News: Harris . John . 29 April 2024 . Local elections road trip: Thurrock – Politics Weekly UK . 1 May 2024 . The Guardian.
  34. Web site: Paun . Akash . Fright . Matthew . Mitchell . Millie . Allen . Briony . 18 April 2024 . Six things to look out for in the May 2024 local and mayoral elections . Institute For Government.
  35. News: Belger . Tom . 30 April 2024 . Inside Labour's local election campaign: Ellie Reeves on where to spend polling day and the key contests to watch . 1 May 2024 . LabourList.
  36. News: 19 March 2024 . Rebel set to fight on in Tory village stronghold . 30 April 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  37. Web site: English . Patrick . 30 April 2024 . Local elections 2024: YouGov MRP predicts significant Conservative losses to Labour . 1 May 2024 . YouGov.
  38. News: Boakye . Kwame . 1 May 2024 . YouGov poll predicts 'significant gains' for Labour . 1 May 2024 . Local Government Chronicle.
  39. News: Coates . Sam . 30 April 2024 . Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday - and what it could mean for general election .
  40. News: Sexton . Christine . Labour takes the reins of 'bankrupt' council . 24 May 2024 . BBC News . 23 May 2024.
  41. News: 10 May 2024 . Labour's priority is to win back trust says leader after its remarkable return to power after Tory vote collapsed . 31 July 2024 . Your Thurrock.
  42. News: 3 May 2024 . Labour hold commanding majority on Thurrock Council as Tories lose ten seats - check out our comprehensive report with video and pictures from the overnight count . 31 July 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  43. Web site: Current councillors . 31 July 2024 . Thurrock Council.
  44. News: 30 July 2024 . Councillors urge caution before entering into a green belt house-building spree . 31 July 2024 . Thurrock Nub News.
  45. Web site: 5 April 2024 . Statement of Persons Nominated: Thurrock Election of a Borough Councillor, 2024 . 6 April 2024 . Thurrock Council.