2024 Texas Senate election explained

2024 Texas Senate election should not be confused with 2024 United States Senate election in Texas.

See also: 2024 United States state legislative elections and 2024 Texas elections.

Election Name:2024 Texas Senate election
Country:Texas
Type:legislative
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2022 Texas Senate election
Previous Year:2022
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2026 Texas Senate election
Next Year:2026
Seats For Election:15 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate
Majority Seats:16
Image1:File:Angela Paxton (53805316919) (cropped).jpg
Leader1:Angela Paxton
Party1:Republican Party of Texas
Leader Since1:September 16, 2023
Seats Before1:19
Leader2:Carol Alvarado
Party2:Texas Democratic Party
Leader Since2:January 8, 2020
Seats Before2:12
Seats Needed2: 4
Majority Leader
Before Election:Angela Paxton
Before Party:Republican
Last Election1:19 seats, 54.06%
Last Election2:12 seats, 41.94%

Elections to the Texas Senate will be held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections will also be held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections.

Primary elections will be held on March 5, 2024, and any necessary runoffs were held on May 28.[1]

Background

Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to a 19–12 margin in the 2022 elections, picking up a seat anchored in Tarrant County that had been redrawn to significantly favor them but failing to win a competitive seat in the Rio Grande Valley.[2]

During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students.[3] [4] [5] Republican infighting in the House led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session despite the Senate easily passing it. Governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed.[6] On May 27, 2023, the House voted 121–23 to impeach attorney general Ken Paxton after a House committee found that he had used taxpayer funds to settle a legal dispute.[7] [8] [9] The Senate voted to acquit him of all charges in September 2023.[10] Republicans Kelly Hancock and Robert Nichols voted in favor of 13 articles each, with all other Republican senators voting against all of them. Neither senator is up for re-election until 2026.[11] [12]

Retirements

One incumbent will not seek re-election.

Republicans

  1. District 30

Drew Springer is retiring.[13]

Special elections

  1. District 15

John Whitmire (D) was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from the Senate on December 31, 2023.[14] Molly Cook won the special election held on May 4, 2024.[15] [16]

Campaign

Democrat Nathan Johnson is the only incumbent senator being challenged in the primary elections.[17] Republican Drew Springer's retirement and Democrat John Whitmire's resignation have created open races for their seats. Democrat Morgan LaMantia is the only senator expected to face a competitive general election.[18]

Predictions

Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.

Statewide

SourceRankingAs of
270toWin[19] June 21, 2024
CNalysis[20] August 6, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] June 18, 2024

Competitive districts

DistrictIncumbentLast Result[22] CNalysis[23]
March 2024
8thAngela Paxton data-sort-value="57.69" 57.69% R
27thMorgan LaMantia data-sort-value="-50.18" 50.18% D

Summary of results by district

† - Incumbent not seeking re-election

State Senate DistrictIncumbentPartyElected SenatorParty
6thCarol AlvaradoDem
7thPaul BettencourtRep
8thAngela PaxtonRep
10thPhil KingRep
12thTan ParkerRep
14thSarah EckhardtDemSarah EckhardtDem
15thMolly CookDem
16thNathan M. JohnsonDemNathan M. JohnsonDem
17thJoan HuffmanRep
20thJuan HinojosaDemJuan HinojosaDem
23rdRoyce WestDemRoyce WestDem
25thDonna CampbellRep
27thMorgan LaMantiaDem
29thCesar BlancoDemCesar BlancoDem
30thDrew SpringerRep

Detailed results

align=center District 6 • District 7 • District 8 • District 10 • District 12 • District 14 • District 15 • District 16 • District 17 • District 20 • District 23 • District 25 • District 27 • District 29 • District 30

District 6

Incumbent Democrat Carol Alvarado is running for re-election.

District 7

Incumbent Republican Paul Bettencourt is running for re-election.

District 8

Incumbent Republican Angela Paxton is running for re-election.

District 10

Incumbent Republican Phil King is running for re-election.

District 12

Incumbent Republican Tan Parker is running for re-election.

District 14

Incumbent Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is running for re-election unopposed.

District 15

Former Senator, Democrat John Whitmire was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from this seat, creating a vacancy. A special election to fill his unexpired term was held on May 4, 2024, with Molly Cook winning. Cook narrowly won the Democratic primary runoff for a full term on May 28.[24]

District 16

Incumbent Democrat Nathan M. Johnson is running for re-election. He defeated state representative Victoria Neave in the Democratic primary.

District 17

Incumbent Republican Joan Huffman is running for re-election.

District 20

Incumbent Democrat Juan Hinojosa is running for re-election unopposed.

District 23

Incumbent Democrat Royce West is running for re-election unopposed.

District 25

Incumbent Republican Donna Campbell is running for re-election.

District 27

Incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia is running for re-election. She faces a rematch against Republican Adam Hinojosa, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022.[25] [26] This race is the only one in the state expected to have a competitive general election.

District 29

Incumbent Democrat Cesar Blanco is running for re-election unopposed.

District 30

Incumbent Republican Drew Springer is retiring.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Texas State Senate elections, 2024. Ballotpedia. 2023-06-16.
  2. Web site: Barragán . Zach Despart and James . 2022-11-09 . Republicans narrowly increase their majorities in Texas Legislature . 2024-02-13 . The Texas Tribune . en.
  3. Web site: Henvey . Winston . 15 September 2023 . Learn how Allen ISD's new armed security aims to keep students safe . https://web.archive.org/web/20230920172328/https://starlocalmedia.com/allenamerican/learn-how-allen-isds-new-armed-security-aims-to-keep-students-safe/article_702dd90a-5327-11ee-bb7a-6bec3a670af7.html . 20 September 2023 . . Star Local Media.
  4. Web site: McGee . Kate . 19 April 2023 . Texas Senate approves bill that would ban diversity programs in public universities . https://web.archive.org/web/20230929205803/https://www.texastribune.org/2023/04/19/texas-senate-dei-universities/ . 29 September 2023 . Texas Tribune.
  5. Web site: Henvey . Winston . 15 November 2023 . Allen ISD considers policy around chaplains for mental health support . https://web.archive.org/web/20231120040323/https://starlocalmedia.com/allenamerican/news/allen-isd-considers-policy-around-chaplains-for-mental-health-support/article_d74bb2a0-7fec-11ee-af73-f3412b17bcf6.html . 20 November 2023 . . Star Local Media.
  6. Web site: Watkins . Kate McGee and Matthew . 2023-05-30 . The regular Texas legislative session started with a record budget surplus and ended with an impeached attorney general . 2024-02-13 . The Texas Tribune . en.
  7. Web site: Despart . Zach . Barragán . James . May 27, 2023 . Texas AG Ken Paxton impeached, suspended from duties pending outcome of Senate trial . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20230527222454/https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/27/ken-paxton-impeached-texas-attorney-general/ . May 27, 2023 . May 27, 2023 . The Texas Tribune . en-US.
  8. Web site: Vertuno . Jim . Bleiberg . Jake . May 27, 2023 . Why Texas' GOP-controlled House wants to impeach Republican attorney general . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20230526231132/https://apnews.com/article/texas-attorney-general-paxton-impeachment-explainer-15f1495d045dce8d838f9937d76d48ed . May 26, 2023 . May 27, 2023 . AP News . en-US.
  9. News: Plohetski . Tony . May 27, 2023 . How a $3.3M settlement against Texas AG Ken Paxton put him on path to impeachment vote . https://archive.today/20230528021434/https://www.statesman.com/story/news/state/2023/05/27/texas-ag-ken-paxtons-3-million-whistleblowers-settlement-request-led-to-impeachment/70263101007/ . May 28, 2023 . May 28, 2023 . Austin American-Statesman.
  10. Web site: Timm . Jane C. . 2023-09-16 . Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton acquitted in impeachment trial . 2024-02-13 . NBC News . en.
  11. Web site: Svitek . Patrick . 2023-05-22 . As Texas Republican senators march in lockstep, Robert Nichols is willing to break away . 2024-02-13 . The Texas Tribune . en.
  12. Web site: McGee . Kate . 2023-09-17 . These 2 senators were the only Republicans to vote for Paxton impeachment articles . 2024-02-13 . The Texas Tribune . en.
  13. News: Svitek. Patrick. State Sen. Drew Springer will not seek reelection in 2024. The Texas Tribune. November 7, 2023. December 24, 2023.
  14. Web site: John Whitmire is officially sworn in as Houston mayor in private ceremony. Church. Abby. January 1, 2024. January 20, 2024. Houston Chronicle.
  15. Web site: Texas Senate hopefuls vie to fill Mayor John Whitmire's vacated seat. Cheng. Yilun. January 19, 2024. January 20, 2023. Houston Chronicle.
  16. Web site: Houston's Whitmire to seek state Senate seat. Harris. Cayla. May 5, 2024. May 5, 2024. Houston Chronicle.
  17. Web site: Jankowski . Philip . Jeffers Jr. . Gromer . 2023-12-13 . Texas Rep. Victoria Neave Criado to challenge state Sen. Nathan Johnson in March primary . 2024-02-13 . Dallas News . en.
  18. Web site: Svitek . Patrick . 2023-03-15 . Texas Democrats and Republicans are on the hunt for rare chances to flip seats in 2024 . 2024-02-13 . The Texas Tribune . en.
  19. Web site: October 20, 2022 . 2023-24 State House Elections Map . September 6, 2023.
  20. Web site: 24 TX Forecast . 2024-03-23 . projects.cnalysis.com.
  21. Web site: Jacobson . Louis . 2024-06-18 . 2024’s Battleground State Legislative Chambers . 2024-06-19 . Sabato's Crystal Ball . en-US.
  22. Web site: 2024-02-29 . 2022-2023 Election Data . 2024-03-16 . cnalysis . en-US.
  23. Web site: 24 TX Forecast . 2024-03-16 . projects.cnalysis.com.
  24. Web site: ER nurse Molly Cook defeats Jarvis Johnson in race for John Whitmire's Texas Senate seat. Cheng. Yilun. May 29, 2024. May 29, 2024. Houston Chronicle.
  25. Web site: Yañez . Alejandra . 2022-12-14 . LaMantia remains winner after recount for Senate District 27 . 2024-02-13 . KVEO-TV . en-US.
  26. Web site: Dozier . Dylan . 2023-12-02 . Hinojosa files for rematch . 2024-03-01 . STexasNews.com . en.