| Election Name: | 2024 Queensland state election |
| Country: | Queensland |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Vote Type: | First-preference |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 Queensland state election |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Outgoing Members: | Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2020–2024 |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Seats For Election: | All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly |
| Majority Seats: | 47 |
| Election Date: | 26 October 2024 |
| Opinion Polls: | 2024_Queensland_state_election#Opinion_polling |
| Leader1: | Steven Miles |
| Party1: | Australian Labor Party (Queensland Branch) |
| Leaders Seat1: | Murrumba |
| Last Election1: | 52 seats, 39.57% |
| Seats Before1: | 51 |
| Leader2: | David Crisafulli |
| Party2: | Liberal National Party of Queensland |
| Leader Since2: | 12 November 2020 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Broadwater |
| Last Election2: | 34 seats, 35.89% |
| Seats Before2: | 35 |
| Seats Needed2: | 12 |
| Leader3: | Robbie Katter |
| Party3: | Katter's Australian |
| Leader Since3: | 2 February 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Traeger |
| Last Election3: | 3 seats, 2.48% |
| Seats Before3: | 3 |
| Seats Needed3: | 44 |
| Leader4: | No leader |
| Party4: | Queensland Greens |
| Last Election4: | 2 seats, 9.47% |
| Seats Before4: | 2 |
| Seats Needed4: | 45 |
| Leader5: | No leader |
| Party5: | Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
| Last Election5: | 1 seat, 7.12% |
| Seats Before5: | 0 |
| Seats Needed5: | 47 |
| 1Blank: | TPP |
| 2Blank: | TPP swing |
| Premier | |
| Before Election: | Steven Miles |
| Before Party: | Australian Labor Party (Queensland Branch) |
| Posttitle: | Elected Premier |
The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1] [2]
The Labor government will attempt to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party (currently led by David Crisafulli), Queensland Greens, Pauline Hanson's One Nation and other parties, including Legalise Cannabis Queensland,[3] as well as independents. On 10 December 2023, Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her resignation after more than eight years in government, prompting a leadership vote to elect a new leader and subsequently Premier.[4]
The 2024 election is the first election in which both the Premier and Opposition Leader are men since the 2006 election.
Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.
The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.
The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.
The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[5] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles.[6] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West.[7] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP.[8]
The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the "Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues.[9] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes.[10]
Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier.[11] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years.[12]
In August 2024, labor's Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations.[13] [14] [15]
See also: Candidates of the 2024 Queensland state election. Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election.[16] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.[17]
In late 2023, it was reported by the The Courier-Mail that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered a deal to preference the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election.[18] Crisafulli told the newspaper: “Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor,” adding: “So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that.”[18] One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties.[19]
This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
In the lead-up to the state election, a number of polling companies are conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.
| +Legislative Assembly polling | ||||||||||
| Date | Firm | Sample | Primary vote | 2pp vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | GRN | ON | KAP | OTH | ALP | LNP | |||
| 8–15 July 2024 | YouGov[29] | 1,019 | 26% | 43% | 14% | 13% | 1% | 3% | 43% | 57% |
| February – May 2024 | RedBridge[30] [31] | 880 | 28% | 47% | 12% | 13% | 43% | 57% | ||
| February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic[32] [33] | 947 | 26% | 43% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 9–17 April 2024 | YouGov[34] | 1,092 | 27% | 44% | 15% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 44% | 56% |
| 16 March 2024 | The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala. | |||||||||
| 7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll[35] | 1,037 | 30% | 42% | 13% | 8% | 46% | 54% | ||
| 13 February 2024 | uComms[36] [37] | 1,743 | 34.2% | 37.3% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 50% | 50% |
| 26 December 2023 | uComms[38] | 1,911 | 34.4% | 36.2% | 49% | 51% | ||||
| 15 December 2023 | Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland. | |||||||||
| 13 December 2023 | uComms[39] | 1,143 | 34% | 38.2% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 48% | 52% |
| 10 December 2023 | Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland. | |||||||||
| September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[40] [41] | 940 | 33% | 37% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 49.5% | 50.5% | |
| 4–10 October 2023 | YouGov[42] | 1,013 | 33% | 41% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 48% | 52% |
| 26 August – 6 September 2023 | RedBridge[43] [44] [45] [46] | 2,012 | 26% | 41% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 45% | 55% | |
| May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[47] | 943 | 32% | 38% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
| 29 June – 2 July 2023 | Freshwater Strategy[48] | 1,065 | 34% | 40% | 11% | 15% | 49% | 51% | ||
| 17 January – 17 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic[49] | 943 | 35% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 1% | 11% | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov[50] | 1,015 | 33% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 2% | 49% | 51% | |
| 1–8 December 2022 | YouGov[51] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 50% | 50% | |
| 21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic[52] | 924 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 23–30 June 2022 | YouGov[53] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 50% | 50% |
| 18–23 February 2022 | YouGov[54] | ~1,000 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 52% | 48% |
| 31 October 2020 election | 39.6% | 35.9% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 53.2% | 46.8% | ||
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| width=70px | Miles | width=70px | Crisafulli | width=70px | Don't know | |||
| 8–15 July 2024 | YouGov[55] | 1,019 | 29% | 40% | 31% | |||
| February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic | 947 | 28% | 39% | 33% | |||
| 9–17 April 2024 | YouGov[56] | 1,092 | 27% | 40% | 33% | |||
| 7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll | 1,037 | 37% | 43% | 20% | |||
| 13 February 2024 | uComms | 1,743 | 49% | 51% | ||||
| 26 December 2023 | uComms | 1,911 | 47.8% | 52.2% | ||||
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | |||||
| width=70px | Palaszczuk | width=70px | Crisafulli | width=70px | Don't know | |||
| September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% | |||
| 10 November 2023 | SEC Newgate[57] | 600 | 30% | 34% | 36% | |||
| 4–10 October 2023 | YouGov | 1,013 | 35% | 37% | 28% | |||
| December 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 940 | 34% | 39% | 27% | |||
| May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 943 | 36% | 37% | 27% | |||
| 29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy | 1,065 | 44% | 45% | 11% | |||
| 17 January – 17 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 943 | style=background:#f66 | 39% | 31% | 31% | ||
| style=text-align:center | 30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov | 1,015 | style=background:#f66 | 31% | 29% | 40% | |
| style=text-align:center | 1–8 December 2022 | YouGov | ~1,000 | style=background:#f66 | 39% | 28% | 33% | |
| style=text-align:center | 21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic | 924 | style=background:#f66 | 42% | 30% | 28% | |
| style=text-align:center | 23–30 June 2022 | YouGov | ~1,000 | style=background:#f66 | 41% | 28% | 31% | |
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Miles | Crisafulli | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | ||||||
| 8–15 July 2024 | YouGov | 1,019 | 31% | style=background:LightPink | 44% | 25% | –13% | 40% | 23% | 37% | +17% | ||
| February – May 2024 | RedBridge | 880 | –11% | +14% | |||||||||
| February – May 2024 | Resolve Strategic | 947 | –15% | +14% | |||||||||
| 9–17 April 2024 | YouGov | 1,092 | 25% | style=background:LightPink | 47% | 28% | –22% | 40% | 26% | 34% | +14% | ||
| 7–13 March 2024 | Newspoll | 1,037 | 38% | 49% | 13% | -11% | 47% | 33% | 20% | +14% | |||
| 13 February 2024 | uComms | 1,743 | 44.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | +19% | 41.7% | 18.7% | 31.2% | +23% | |||
| 13 December 2023 | uComms | 1,143 | 38.4% | 25.9% | 35.6% | +12.5% | |||||||
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | |||||||||
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | ||||||
| September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 940 | –17% | +9% | |||||||||
| 4–10 October 2023 | YouGov | 1,013 | 32% | style=background:FireBrick | 52% | 16% | –20% | 37% | 26% | 37% | +11% | ||
| September – December 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 940 | –17% | +9% | |||||||||
| May – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic | 943 | –15% | +7% | |||||||||
| 29 June – 2 July 2023 | AFR/Freshwater Strategy | 1,065 | 39% | style=background:LightPink | 47% | 14% | –8% | ||||||
| style=text-align:center | 1–8 December 2022 | YouGov | ~1,000 | 40% | style=background:LightPink | 41% | 19% | –1% | 31% | 27% | 42% | +4% | |
| style=text-align:center | 23–30 June 2022 | YouGov | ~1,000 | style=background:LightGreen | 45% | 30% | 16% | +15% | 31% | 23% | 46% | +8% | |
| style=text-align:center | 18–23 February 2022 | YouGov | ~1,000 | style=background:DarkGreen | 50% | 36% | 14% | +14% | |||||