| Country: | New South Wales |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2023 New South Wales state election |
| Previous Year: | 2023 |
| Election Date: | 22 June 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2027 New South Wales state election |
| Next Year: | 2027 |
| Seats For Election: | Electoral district of Northern Tablelands in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly |
| Candidate1: | Brendan Moylan |
| Party1: | National Party of Australia – NSW |
| Popular Vote1: | 31,203 |
| Percentage1: | 67.9% |
| Swing1: | 3.7 |
| Candidate2: | Ben Smith |
| Party2: | SFF |
| Popular Vote2: | 5,229 |
| Percentage2: | 11.4% |
| Swing2: | 6.9 |
| Candidate3: | Dorothy Robinson |
| Party3: | The Greens NSW |
| Popular Vote3: | 4,211 |
| Percentage3: | 9.2% |
| Swing3: | 4.4 |
| 1Blank: | TPP |
| 2Blank: | TPP % |
| 3Blank: | TPP swing |
| 1Data1: | 33,611 |
| 2Data1: | 81.9 |
| 3Data1: | 1.9 |
| 1Data2: | 7,411 |
| 2Data2: | 18.1 |
| 3Data2: | 1.9 |
| MP | |
| Before Election: | Adam Marshall |
| Before Party: | Nationals |
| After Election: | Brendan Moylan |
| After Party: | Nationals |
A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Northern Tablelands on 22 June 2024, following the resignation of National Party MP Adam Marshall.[1] [2]
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the 2013.
Northern Tablelands is a very conservative seat and is a heartland for the National Party. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly bad territory for Labor. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the federal seat of New England, which is also a very safe Nationals seat.
Labor usually runs dead in the seat, and therefore did not contest the by-election.
Marshall won 83.8% of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside Western Australia.
Candidates are listed in ballot order:[3]
| Party | Candidate | Background | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | Ben Smith | [4] | |||
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | Armidale Regional Councillor | |||
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 2023 candidate | |||
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | Businessman[5] | |||
| National | Brendan Moylan | Solicitor[6] [7] | |||
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[8]