2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election explained

Election Name:2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election
Country:New York (state)
Type:by-election
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2022 New York's 3rd congressional district election
Previous Year:2022
Next Year:November 2024
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives elections in New York#District 3
Election Date:February 13, 2024
Image1:TomSuozzi118thCongress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Tom Suozzi
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:93,183
Percentage1:53.92%
Nominee2:Mazi Melesa Pilip
Party2:Republican
Alliance2:Conservative Party of New York State
Popular Vote2:79,290
Percentage2:45.88%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:George Santos
After Election:Tom Suozzi
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2024 New York's 3rd congressional district special election was held on February 13, 2024, to fill the vacant seat in New York's 3rd congressional district for the remainder of the 118th United States Congress. The seat became vacant after the expulsion of Republican George Santos on December 1, 2023. Considered a suburban swing seat, political analysts predicted a competitive and expensive election for both parties.[1] [2] The early voting period ran from February 3 to February 11, 2024.[3] [4]

Republicans nominated Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, while Democrats nominated Tom Suozzi, the former U.S. representative for this district and Santos's predecessor. Suozzi defeated Pilip, reclaiming the seat for Democrats.[5] This was the first time that a New York congressional seat changed parties in a special election since 2011.

Background

Republican George Santos was elected to Congress in 2022 from New York's 3rd district. Weeks later, The New York Times reported that he had misrepresented his background during the campaign.[6] Santos confirmed the allegations against him were true soon after, but refused to resign from his seat.[7] After a formal inquiry by the House Ethics Committee, he was expelled from the House of Representatives on December 1, 2023, by a vote of 311 to 114. At the time of the expulsion, he was indicted on 23 federal charges related to fraud.[8] Santos was the first representative to be expelled in two decades and the first since the Civil War to be expelled before any criminal conviction.[9]

Nominees

New York does not use primary elections when filling vacancies. Instead, party officials in the affected counties (in this case, Nassau and Queens) are responsible for choosing nominees.[10]

Democratic Party

Democrats selected Tom Suozzi as the party's nominee on December 7, 2023.[11] He had previously represented the district in the House from 2017 to 2023. Before that, he served as the Nassau County executive and the mayor of Glen Cove, and had run for governor in 2006 and 2022.[12]

Republican Party

On December 14, 2023, Republicans selected Mazi Melesa Pilip as their nominee to replace Santos.[13] She previously served in the Israel Defense Forces, and has represented the 10th legislative district in the Nassau County Legislature since 2022.[14] She was a registered Democrat who held office as a Republican.[15]

Minor parties

New York allows fusion voting in elections, prompting minor parties to nominate candidates on their ballot lines. The Conservative Party of New York State nominated Pilip.[16] Suozzi declined to seek the support of the Working Families Party, despite having accepted the party's nomination in past election cycles.[17] [18]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[19] January 23, 2024
align=left Inside Elections[20] February 9, 2024
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] February 7, 2024
align=left Elections Daily[22] February 5, 2024
align=left CNalysis[23] February 12, 2024

Debate

News 12 Long Island hosted a debate between Suozzi and Pilip on February 8, 2024.[25] Suozzi's campaign had proposed additional debates to be hosted by WABC-TV, WNBC, and NY1. However, Pilip declined to participate in any of them, telling The Jewish Star that she did not have much time for debates given the short campaign schedule.[26] [27]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mazi Pilip (R)$1,342,835$714,273$628,561
Tom Suozzi (D)$4,514,693$2,360,689$2,217,239
Source: Federal Election Commission[28]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mazi Melesa
Pilip (R)
Tom
Suozzi (D)
Undecided
JL PartnersFebruary 10–12, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%9%
Siena CollegeFebruary 3–6, 2024694 (LV)± 4.2%44%48%7%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 4–5, 2024742 (VLV/AV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
48%52%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 2024975 (RV)± 3.1%42%45%9%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)November 30, 2023900 (LV)± 3.3%40%43%17%
Kellen Curry vs. Tom Suozzi
Mike Sapraicone vs. Tom Suozzi

Results

CountySuozzi
Democratic
Pilip
Republican
Write-inMarginTotal votes
data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"data-sort-type="number"%
Nassau77,57552.6169,61047.212560.187,9655.40147,441
Queens15,60861.529,68038.16810.325,92823.3725,369
Total93,18353.9279,29045.883370.2013,8938.04172,810

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Stewart . Kyle . December 1, 2023 . George Santos was expelled from the House — what happens next? . . December 2, 2023.
  2. Web site: NY-03: With Santos Expulsion Likely, Toss Up Special Looms on Long Island. The Cook Political Report. Dave. Wasserman. December 1, 2023.
  3. Web site: Upcoming Elections 2024. January 24, 2024. Board of Elections in the City of New York.
  4. Web site: Special Election: February 13, 2024. January 24, 2024. Nassau County Board of Elections .
  5. Web site: 2024-02-13 . Democrat Tom Suozzi wins New York race to succeed George Santos in Congress . 2024-02-14 . AP News . en.
  6. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html Who Is Rep.-Elect George Santos? His Résumé May Be Largely Fiction.
  7. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/26/politics/george-santos-admits-embellishing-resume/index.html Rep.-elect George Santos admits to lying about bio, but says he still intends to serve in Congress
  8. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4341797-fetterman-menendez-cameo-video-santos/ Fetterman says he sent ‘ethically-challenged’ Menendez a Cameo video from Santos
  9. News: Sangal . Aditi . Shelton . Shania . December 1, 2023 . House expels GOP Rep. George Santos over ethics violations . . December 2, 2023.
  10. News: Bowman . Bridget . George Santos' exit sets up a competitive special election . December 1, 2023 . . December 1, 2023 . en.
  11. News: Shepherd . Bridget . Bowman . December 7, 2023 . New York Democrats pick Tom Suozzi as their candidate for George Santos' seat . . December 7, 2023.
  12. News: Shepherd . Bridget . Bowman . December 7, 2023 . New York Democrats pick Tom Suozzi as their candidate for George Santos' seat . . December 7, 2023.
  13. Web site: LaRocco . Paul . 2023-12-14 . GOP picks Mazi Melesa Pilip to run in special election to replace ousted George Santos, former Rep. Pete King confirms . 2023-12-14 . Newsday . en.
  14. Web site: 2021-11-29 . This one-time refugee and former Israeli paratrooper just won a seat in her county legislature . 2023-12-14 . The Forward . en.
  15. Web site: GOP nominates Nassau legislator Mazi Pilip to run for Santos' seat. December 14, 2023. NY1. Bobby. Cuza .
  16. Web site: GOP nominates Nassau legislator Mazi Pilip to run for Santos' seat. Bobby. Cuza. December 14, 2023. December 15, 2023. NY1.
  17. Web site: How Delgado will help House Democrats. Joseph. Spector. Nick. Reisman. Emily. Ngo. December 15, 2023. December 15, 2023. Politico.
  18. Web site: September 17, 2020. November 3, 2020 General Election Certification. September 25, 2020. New York State Board of Elections. September 24, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200924144209/https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/Elections/2020/General/CertificationforNov32020GeneralElection.pdf. dead.
  19. Web site: NY-03: Democrats Have Reasons for Cautious Optimism in Special Election Sprint. Cook Political Report. January 9, 2024.
  20. Web site: First 2024 House Ratings . Inside Elections . December 7, 2023.
  21. Web site: Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up . Sabato's Crystal Ball . February 7, 2024. February 7, 2024.
  22. Web site: Cunningham . Eric . 2024 House of Representatives Ratings Update: Six Races Updated, Democrats Favored in NY-03 Special . Elections Daily. February 5, 2024 .
  23. ChazNuttycombe. 1757154948398162314. Final rating for NY-03: Lean Democratic (FLIP), ~7-in-10 chance of a Suozzi win.. February 13, 2024.
  24. Web site: Malaszczyk . Michael . Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip Set For Feb. 8 Debate . www.longislandpress.com . Long Island Press . 28 December 2023.
  25. News: Third District voters have mixed reactions following Pilip, Suozzi heated debate. February 9, 2024. February 13, 2024. News 12 Long Island.
  26. Web site: MAZI PILIP: 'I grew up there. I know Israel from the bottom up.'. Tim. Baker. January 24, 2024 . January 25, 2024. The Jewish Star. I don’t have that much time to have debates. We’re talking about a very short time to the election..
  27. Web site: Republican Pilip Agrees To At Least 1 Debate With Suozzi. Jerry. Barmash. December 27, 2023. Patch.
  28. Web site: 2024 Election United States House – New York 3rd . fec.gov . . November 14, 2023.