| Election Name: | 2024 Montana gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Montana |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2020 Montana gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Next Election: | 2028 Montana gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | Greg Gianforte in Taiwan (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Greg Gianforte |
| Running Mate1: | Kristen Juras |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 354,569 |
| Percentage1: | 58.86% |
| Nominee2: | Ryan Busse |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Running Mate2: | Raph Graybill |
| Popular Vote2: | 232,644 |
| Percentage2: | 38.62% |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Greg Gianforte |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Greg Gianforte |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[1] Incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse.[2]
Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely-populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. In the 2020 gubernatorial election, Gianforte defeated Democratic nominee Mike Cooney by 12.8%, becoming the first Republican to be elected governor of Montana since Judy Martz in 2000. Gianforte's election flipped two of Montana's last three Democrat-held statewide offices (governor and lieutenant governor) into the GOP camp. Leading up to the election, the only statewide office occupied by a Democrat was Jon Tester's U.S. Senate seat, which flipped Republican in a concurrent race.[3] Gianforte was widely expected to comfortably win re-election in 2024.[4] [5]
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[14] | June 13, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[15] | July 14, 2023 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | June 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | RCP[17] | July 13, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[18] | July 12, 2023 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[19] | August 17, 2024 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Greg Gianforte (R) | Ryan Busse (D) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (A) | ± 3.56% | 50% | 31% | 5% | 14% | ||
| The New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 35% | – | 8% | ||
| 656 (RV) | 57% | 35% | – | 9% | |||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | September 29 – October 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.34% | 55% | 36% | 1% | 7% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D) | August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 38% | – | 8% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | August 18–20, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 53% | 34% | 4% | 8% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 33% | 5% | 8% | ||
| SurveyUSA | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 30% | – | 18% |