| Election Name: | 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Country: | Michigan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucuses were held on February 27 and on March 2, 2024, respectively, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 55 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional and winner-take-most basis.[1] The primary took place concurrently with its Democratic counterpart, and saw Trump defeat Haley in a 42-point landslide.[2]
In the 2016 Michigan Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump won with 36.5% of the vote, carrying 25 out of 59 delegates total. His closest opponents, Governor of Ohio John Kasich and Senator from Texas Ted Cruz, received 24.9% and 24.3% of the vote, respectively, with both candidates receiving 17 delegates.[3]
See also: Michigan Republican Party. A court case was heard in Grand Rapids by Kent County Judge J. Joseph Rossi in late February determined who controls the state party. Judge Rossi dismissed a lawsuit by Karamo on February 20 to dismiss the case allowing for full hearings on the lawsuit filed by Karamo's critics later in the week regarding whether the RNC recognized chair Hoekstra or Karamo controls the MIGOP.[4] Judge Rossi on February 27 issued a preliminary injunction against Karamo, stating was properly removed as MIGOP chair and barring access by her to MIGOP bank accounts or post office boxes. Karamo declined to say whether she would appeal the ruling and had no comment as to whether the Detroit caucuses will take place.[5] [6] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[7] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[8] The chaos affected northern Michigan GOP participants from Michigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred by missing the deadline to take part in the Grand Rapids caucus. So a third gathering is planned the same day in Houghton Lake.[9] A contingent from Michigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day in Battle Creek.[10] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[11] Judge Rossi ruled that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair.[12]
16 at-large delegates are allocated based on the results of the February 27 primary to candidates who receive at least 12.5% of the statewide vote.
39 district delegates are allocated based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2. Each of the state's thirteen congressional districts are awarded three delegates. The candidate who wins the majority of the vote in a caucus is awarded all that district's delegates; otherwise, the candidate with the highest vote total is awarded two delegates and the candidate with the second-highest vote total is awarded one delegate.
In February 2023, Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed legislation to move up the date of both the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Michigan to February 27, 2024, in line with the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) state reorganization plan.[13]
The date violated Republican Party Rule 16(c)(1), which prohibits any state/territory except Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, from holding their primary/caucus until March 1, 2024, violating any other state/territory by stripping 80% of its delegates at the Republican National Convention.
In response, in June 2023, the Michigan Republican Party (MIGOP) passed a resolution of intent that would allocate 16 delegates based on the results of the February 27 primary and 39 delegates based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2.[14]
The convention held by the faction of the Michigan Republican Party recognized by the Republican National Committee led by Pete Hoekstra will be in Grand Rapids at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel on March 2,[15] while the faction of the Michigan Republican Party led by Kristina Karamo will hold their convention in Detroit at Huntington Place on the same day.[16] While media is invited to the Karamo caucus, it will be closed to the public.[17] The RNC has indicated that only the delegates from the Hoekstra-led convention will be seated for the 2024 Republican National Convention.[18] A court ruling by Judge Joseph Rossi on February 27 indicated that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair[19] and barred Karamo from conducting business on behalf of the "Michigan Republican State Committee or the Michigan Republican Party".[20] Rossi made his ruling retroactive to January 6.[21] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[22] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order while her appeal is under consideration, putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[23] The chaos affected delegates from Michigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred credentials to take part in the Grand Rapids convention; a third gathering is planned the same day in Houghton Lake.[24] A contingent from Michigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day in Battle Creek.[25] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[26]
The Michigan Secretary of State has identified the following candidates, listed alphabetically, as potential Republican Party presidential candidates in 2024:[27]
See main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Burgum | Chris Christie | Ron DeSantis | Nikki Haley | Will Hurd | Asa Hutchinson | Perry Johnson | Mike Pence | Vivek Ramaswamy | Tim Scott | Donald Trump | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/The Hill[29] | Feb 20–24, 2024 | 486 (LV) | ±3% | – | – | – | 20.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 69.2% | – | 10.5% | ||
| Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)[30] | Jan 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ±4% | 3% | 8% | 9% | 19% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | 53% | – | 6% | ||
| CNN/SSRS[31] | Nov 30 – December 7, 2023 | 618 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 1% | 6% | 15% | 13% | – | 1% | – | – | 4% | – | 58% | 1% | 3% | ||
| Morning Consult[32] | Nov 1–30, 2023 | 1,348 (LV) | – | 0% | 3% | 13% | 10% | – | 0% | – | – | 8% | 1% | 65% | – | – | ||
| Morning Consult | Oct 1–31, 2023 | 1,342 (LV) | – | 1% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 0% | 0% | – | 7% | 9% | 1% | 63% | – | – | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[33] | Oct 9–10, 2023 | 430 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 2% | 3% | 13% | 6% | – | 0% | – | 2% | 3% | 0% | 63% | – | 8% | ||
| Morning Consult | Sep 1–30, 2023 | 1,238 (LV) | – | 0% | 4% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 0% | – | 7% | 10% | 1% | 58% | – | 2% | ||
| Susquehanna University[34] | Sep 7–12, 2023 | 219 (LV) | – | 0% | 0% | 18% | 3% | – | 0% | – | 5% | 5% | 0% | 65% | – | – | ||
| Morning Consult | Aug 1–31, 2023 | 1,299 (LV) | – | 0% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1% | – | 8% | 8% | 2% | 59% | 0% | – | ||
| Emerson College[35] | Aug 1–2, 2023 | 498 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 1% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 61% | 1% | 6% | ||
| Morning Consult | July 1–31, 2023 | 1,350 (LV) | – | – | 3% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1% | – | 10% | 7% | 2% | 55% | – | 1% | ||
| Mitchell Research[36] | Jul 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 13% | 1% | – | – | 0% | 3% | – | 2% | 69% | – | 11% | ||
| Morning Consult | June 1–30, 2023 | 1,242 (LV) | – | 1% | 2% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 2% | – | 9% | 3% | 3% | 52% | 1% | – | ||
| Morning Consult | May 1–31, 2023 | 1,354 (LV) | – | – | – | 25% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 9% | 5% | 1% | 53% | 5% | 1% | ||
| Morning Consult | Apr 1–30, 2023 | 1,356 (LV) | – | – | – | 26% | 3% | – | 0% | – | 10% | 2% | 1% | 53% | 5% | – | ||
| Morning Consult | Mar 1–31, 2023 | 1,378 (LV) | – | – | – | 30% | 3% | – | – | – | 10% | 0% | 1% | 51% | 5% | – | ||
| Morning Consult | Feb 1–28, 2023 | 1,232 (LV) | – | – | – | 32% | 4% | – | – | – | 10% | 0% | 1% | 46% | 6% | 1% | ||
| Echelon Insights[37] | Feb 13–16, 2023 | 400 (V) | ± 6.0% | – | – | 47% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42% | 11% | – | ||
| Morning Consult | Jan 1–31, 2023 | 1,709 (LV) | – | – | – | 33% | 1% | – | – | – | 10% | – | 0% | 48% | 5% | 3% | ||
| Morning Consult | Dec 1–31, 2022 | 909 (LV) | – | – | – | 32% | 1% | – | – | – | 10% | – | 0% | 50% | 7% | – | ||
| Glengariff Group[38] | Jul 13–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | 13% | – |
CBS called the results for Donald Trump at 6:02PM (EST) with Trump winning all 39 delegates available from the caucus.[39]
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