2024 Liberian by-elections explained

The 2024 Liberian by-elections were held on April 23, 2024. The by-elections were the result of two vacancies: one in the Senate in Nimba County, the other in the House of Representatives, in Grand Gedeh County's 1st district.

Background

The National Elections Commission (NEC) were notified of the vacancies in the legislature in early February. On February 1, the Senate notified the NEC of a vacancy due to the ascendancy of Nimba County Senator Jeremiah Koung to the vice presidency in the 2023 election. On February 2, the House notified the NEC of a vacancy due to the death of Grand Gedeh County Representative Erol Madison Gwion in December, shortly after the 2023 election.[1] Gwion's death was the first death of the 55th Legislature.[2] By February 14, the NEC had announced the date for the by-elections to be April 23.[3]

Nimba County Senator Prince Johnson, founder of the Movement for Democracy and Reconstruction (MDR), had been building influence in the county since 2005, and his endorsements had a notable impact on its elections prior to 2024. In the 2023 presidential election, Johnson had aligned himself with Unity Party (UP) nominee Joseph Boakai, creating an alliance between the UP and the MDR. Koung's selection as Boakai's running mate was a part of this alliance. Koung was a member of the MDR who had been supported by Johnson throughout his political career. However, following Boakai's victory in the 2023 election, there had been a falling out between Senator Johnson and the Boakai administration. Johnson, a warlord in the First Liberian Civil War, was dissatisfied with Boakai's stance in favor of establishing a war crimes court.[4]

As early as March, it was reported Senator Johnson was seeking to endorse a candidate opposed to the UP in the 2024 Senate election. The UP's candidate for the Nimba County Senate race was Nya D. Twayen Jr. Johnson initially wanted to support Mark Gblinwon, former Nimba County inspector, in the Senate race. He rejected the idea of endorsing Samuel G. Kogar. Early in Kogar's political, he was allied with Johnson, but the relationship between the two had deteriorated since then.[4] In March, Senator Johnson had a meeting, first with Twayen and then with Kogar. In both meeting he was vetting potential endorsements. He supported Kogar's stance against the establishment of a war crime court.[5] Johnson would end up endorsing Kogar. Vice President Koung would break from Senator Johnson with his endorsement of Twayen.[6]

Campaigning for the election had begun on April 4. The Senate race had four candidates, the House race had 15.[7] Candidates for the Senate race included Twayen with the UP and Kogar with the People's Unification Party. The other candidates were former senator Thomas Grupee with the Reformers National Congress and Armstrong Gobac Selekpoh with the Liberia National Union, a young critic of Johnson who enjoyed grassroots support.[8] [9] Candidates in Nimba County were noted to focus their campaigns on the interior of the county.[10] Candidates in the House race included the late Rep. Gwion's son, Moniayoung Jerry Gwion, as well as the representative's widow, Amelia P. Beh.[11] [12] Campaigning ended on April 20.[13]

Aftermath

The 2024 by-elections were noted for their low turnout. The tally process began on April 24.[1] In the first preliminary results released by the NEC, Twayen was in the lead, with Kogar in second place.[14] On April 29, the NEC announced Twayen as the winner of the Senate race and independent Jeremiah Garwo Sokan Sr. as winner of the House race.[15]

Twayen's victory was seen as an upset due to its defiance of Johnson's endorsement, but also due to racial factors. Twayen is a member of the Mano ethnicity, while Johnson and Kogar are Dan. There had been a number of upsets in Dan regions of Nimba County, with them supporting Twayen over Kogar.[4] William Q. Harmon of the Liberian Observer suggested that the Senate election could signify a "potential shift in political dynamics in Nimba County and suggests a diminishing hold of power by Senator Johnson."[16]

Twayen and Sokan were certified as winners of the elections by the NEC on May 6.[17]

Results

The following are the results for the 2024 by-elections from the NEC.[18] [19]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: UP Candidate Nya leads polls in Nimba. The New Dawn Libria. April 25, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  2. Web site: Liberia: 55th Legislature Records 1st Death. https://web.archive.org/web/20240221182939/https://www.liberianobserver.com/liberia-55th-legislature-records-1st-death/. Liberian Observer. February 21, 2024. December 5, 2023. May 23, 2024.
  3. Web site: Liberia: NEC Announces Date for Nimba, G. Gedeh Counties' By-elections. https://web.archive.org/web/20240214091846/https://www.liberianobserver.com/liberia-nec-announces-date-nimba-g-gedeh-counties-elections/. Liberian Observer. February 14, 2024. February 14, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  4. Web site: Lennart. Dodoo. Selma. Lomax. Liberia: Disappointed Prince Johnson Begins Plot against Unity Party Signaling An Early Fallout with the Regime. FrontPage Africa. March 19, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  5. Web site: Henry. Karmo. Liberia: Senator Prince Johnson's Flip-Flop in Nimba County By-election Endorsement. FrontPage Africa. March 21, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  6. Web site: Selma. Lomax. Franklin. Doloquee. Liberia: VP Koung Fails to Turn Out to Vote in Nimba Senatorial By-Election amid Concerns over Who He Supports in the High Stakes Election. FrontPage Africa. April 24, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  7. Web site: Campaigns for Bye Elections in G’ Gedeh and Nimba Kick Off -As NEC clears 19 candidates. The Analyst. April 5, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  8. Web site: Liberia's 2024 Legislative By-elections in Nimba and Grand Gedeh Counties: Assessing the Races and the Racers. Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. April 23, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  9. Web site: Selma. Lomax. Franklin. Doloquee. Liberia: Nimba County Senatorial Election Poses Political Crossroads Amidst Incumbency, Tribal Dynamics, and Influential Endorsements. FrontPage Africa. April 4, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  10. Web site: Ishmael F.. Menkor. Nimba Senatorial By-Election Lacks Momentum. https://web.archive.org/web/20240418030318/https://www.liberianobserver.com/nimba-senatorial-election-lacks-momentum/. Liberian Observer. April 17, 2024. April 18, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  11. Web site: Lincoln G.. Peters. Liberia: Family Battle for Grand Gedeh Representative Seat. AllAfrica. The New Dawn Liberia. April 23, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  12. Web site: Sallu K.. Swaray. NEC To Declare Twayen, Sokan winners Today -As Final Announcement of result imminent. The Analyst. April 26, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  13. Web site: Nimba, Grand Gedeh by-elections campaigns end. The New Dawn Liberia. April 22, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  14. Web site: J. H. Webster. Clayeh. Early Results: UP's Nya Twayen Takes the Lead, Independent Candidate Jeremiah Ahead in Grand Gedeh District 1 By-Election. FrontPage Africa. April 25, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  15. Web site: Naneka A.. Hoffman. NEC declares Twayen, Sokan winners of by-elections. The New Dawn Liberia. April 29, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  16. Web site: William Q.. Harmon. Liberia: Nya Twayen Is Nimba's Senator-Elect. https://web.archive.org/web/20240426085223/https://www.liberianobserver.com/liberia-nya-twayen-nimbas-senator-elect/. Liberian Observer. April 26, 2024. April 26, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  17. Web site: Naneka A.. Hoffman. NEC certificates winners of April 23 By-elections. The New Dawn Libria. May 7, 2024. May 23, 2024.
  18. Web site: 2024 SENATORIAL BY-ELECTION RESULTS. National Elections Commission. 2024. May 19, 2024.
  19. Web site: 2024 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BY-ELECTIONS RESULTS. National Elections Commission. 2024. May 19, 2024.