2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) presidential election explained

Election Name:2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election
Flag Image:Liberal Democratic Party of Japan logo.svg
Type:legislative
Votes For Election:535 delegates in total
Needed Votes:268 or more delegate
Vote Type:Caucus
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2021 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election
Previous Year:2021
Election Date:27 September 2024[1]
1Blank:LDP MPs
2Blank:Prefectural votes
3Blank:Total
4Blank:First round
5Blank:Runoff
President
Before Election:Fumio Kishida
After Party:TBD

The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on 27 September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the next Prime Minister of Japan due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet and will lead the party in the next general election and the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election.

President of the LDP and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following the party's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church, and a slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions.[2] [3] [4] [5]

Election procedure

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party". In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan. In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots. If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected president.

If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates. In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture. The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected president.

Background

Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihide Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.[6]

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

See main article: Assassination of Shinzo Abe.

Following assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased.[7] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.[8]

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.[9]

Slush fund scandal

See main article: 2023–2024 Japanese slush fund scandal. In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.[10] [11]

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction.[12] [13] [14] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.[15] [16] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.[17]

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.[18]

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.[19] [20]

Continued unpopularity and resignation

Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.[21] [12] [22] Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition.[23] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this".[24] [25] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.[26] On 14 August, Kishida announced that he would not seek another term as president, adding that he was withdrawing so that the party could have an "open contest to promote debate".[27] [28] [29]

Prelude

Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8 July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run.[30] On 30 June The Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election.[31] She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.[32]

On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner.[33] Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day.[34]

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".[35] He indicated on 11 July that he would make a decision by August.[36] Later on 21 July Ishiba said he would decide around the Obon holiday period (August 13–16).[37] Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war.[38] Ishiba declared his candidacy on 14 August, hours after Kishida's resignation.[39]

On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff.[40] While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency.[41] Diet Member suggested Kishida be replaced by Koizumi on 12 July.[42]

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July.[43] Motegei later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa-era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election.[44] On the same day, he stated he would make a decision by early September.[45] Motegi will embark on a trip to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines on 28 July in an effort to boost his profile.[46]

Jiji reported on 21 July that the LDP would establish an election committee for the presidential election on July 26. The 11-person committee is headed by Diet Member Ichiro Aisawa, and will most likely determine the election date to be between September 20 to 30, with the two most likely dates being the 20th and 27th.[47] [48]

On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.[49]

Campaign

Former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to announce their candidacy during a press conference on August 19, emphasizing the need to "reform" the party.[50]

Candidates

Nominated

The following have been nominated as candidate for president of the LDP, having received the support of at least 20 other LDP members of the National Diet.

Declared

The following announced that they would seek the presidency of the LDP.

Candidate(s)Date of birthCurrent positionParty factionElectoral districtReference(s)
Yoshimasa Hayashi19 January 1961
Chief Cabinet Secretary

Member of the House of Representatives
 Yamaguchi 3rd district[53]
Shigeru Ishiba4 February 1957
Member of the House of Representatives
Suigetsukai
(Ishiba) 		Tottori 1st district[54]
Yōko Kamikawa1 March 1953
Minister for Foreign Affairs

Member of the House of Representatives
 Shizuoka 1st district[55] [56]
Katsunobu Katō22 November 1955
Member of the House of Representatives
 Okayama 5th district[57]
Shinjirō Koizumi14 April 1981
Member of the House of Representatives
 Kanagawa 11th district[58]
Taro Kono<-- See talk page. This was Kono's color in the 2021 presidential election (consistency) -->10 January 1963
Minister for Digital Transformation

Member of the House of Representatives
Shikōkai
(Asō) 		Kanagawa 15th district[59] [60]
Sanae Takaichi<-- See talk page. This was Takaichi's color in the 2021 presidential election (consistency) -->7 March 1961
Minister of State for Economic Security

Member of the House of Representatives
 Nara 2nd district[61]
Shigeharu Aoyama25 July 1952

Member of the House of Councillors
 House of Councillors national proportional representation block

Decision pending

Publicly expressed interest

Potential candidates

Based on opinion polls[66] [67] [68] [69] [70]

Declined

Endorsements

Declined

Opinion polls

Hypothetical polling

The following polls feature Fumio Kishida, who was the speculated to run for re-election for the Liberal Democratic party leadership before deciding against entering the race.

Preferred outcome

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Japan's ruling party sets leadership race for Sept. 27 . 2024-08-20 . Kyodo News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240820024748/https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/08/93b16bfa98ea-japans-ruling-party-sets-leadership-race-for-sept-27.html . 2024-08-20 . live.
  2. Web site: 2024-08-15 . Fumio Kishida Withdraws from LDP Presidential Race; New Japanese Prime Minister to Take Office . 2024-08-15 . The Japan News. https://web.archive.org/web/20240816032142/https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20240814-204970/ . 2024-08-16 . live.
  3. Web site: Takahara . Kanako . 2024-08-15 . Kishida clears the way for ministers to campaign in LDP election . 2024-08-15 . The Japan Times . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815103336/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/15/japan/politics/ldp-election-candidates/ . 2024-08-15 . live.
  4. News: 2024-08-15 . Editorial: Japan PM Kishida's exit comes only after deepening distrust in politics . 2024-08-15 . Mainichi Daily News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240816013825/https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240815/p2a/00m/0op/016000c . 2024-08-16 . live.
  5. News: 2024-08-14 . Kishida set to resign as Japan PM after withdrawing from LDP race . 2024-08-15 . Kyodo News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240814020815/https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/08/f990eece59b6-urgent-japan-pm-kishida-not-to-run-in-ldp-presidential-election-source.html . 2024-08-14 . live.
  6. Web site: Fumio Kishida elected by Diet as Japan's new prime minister The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis . 2024-01-17 . The Asahi Shimbun . https://web.archive.org/web/20211004080900/https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14453713/ime . 2021-10-04 . live . en .
  7. Web site: 2022-08-11 . Japan PM purges Cabinet after support falls over church ties . 2024-01-17 . AP News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20220810073743/https://apnews.com/article/japan-fumio-kishida-names-new-cabinet-fe083fb6a0f4861116be798c76649c2e . 2022-08-10 . live.
  8. Web site: Inauguration of the Reshuffled Second Kishida Cabinet . 2024-01-17 . Prime Minister's Office of Japan . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240117073237/https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/actions/202208/_00007.html . 2024-01-17 . live.
  9. Web site: Takahara . Kanako . Ninivaggi . Gabriele . 2023-09-13 . Kishida replaces top diplomat and boosts women in Cabinet reshuffle . 2024-01-17 . The Japan Times . https://web.archive.org/web/20230914175530/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/13/japan/politics/cabinet-reshuffle/ . 2023-09-14 . live . en.
  10. Web site: 2023-12-08 . Japan's leader grilled in parliament over widening fundraising scandal, link to Unification Church . 2024-01-17 . AP News . https://web.archive.org/web/20231208133959/https://apnews.com/article/japan-kishida-fundraising-scandal-unification-church-26257498b503bd46298b4349d0b68400 . 2023-12-08 . live . en.
  11. News: McCurry . Justin . 2023-12-14 . Japan's ruling party engulfed by political fundraising scandal . 2024-01-17 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231214051426/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/japans-ruling-party-engulfed-by-political-fundraising-scandal . 2023-12-14 . live.
  12. News: 2023-12-22 . Japan: Corruption scandal threatens PM Kishida's government . 2024-01-17 . en-GB . https://web.archive.org/web/20231222061046/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67783043 . 2023-12-22 . live.
  13. Web site: Kishida vows to replace ministers on Thursday over fundraising scandal . 2024-01-17 . Nikkei Asia . https://web.archive.org/web/20231213130645/https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Kishida-vows-to-replace-ministers-on-Thursday-over-fundraising-scandal . 2023-12-13 . live . en.
  14. News: 2023-12-14 . Japan: Four cabinet ministers quit over fundraising scandal . 2024-01-17 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231214060004/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67712367 . 2023-12-14 . live . en-GB.
  15. Web site: No-confidence motion against Japan PM Kishida rejected . 2024-01-17 . Nikkei Asia . https://web.archive.org/web/20231213132719/https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/No-confidence-motion-against-Japan-PM-Kishida-rejected . 2023-12-13 . dead . en.
  16. Web site: NEWS . KYODO . Scandal-hit Japan spokesman faces no-confidence motion . 2024-01-17 . Kyodo News+ . https://web.archive.org/web/20231211065812/https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/12/38cd4305dc64-scandal-hit-japan-spokesman-to-face-no-confidence-motion.html . 2023-12-11 . live.
  17. Web site: (Repeat) Japan's Kishida Cabinet Survives No-Confidence Motion - JIJI PRESS . 2024-01-17 . jen.jiji.com . https://web.archive.org/web/20240117073237/https://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2023121300974 . 2024-01-17 . dead.
  18. Web site: 2024-01-07 . Japanese prosecutors make their first arrest in the fundraising scandal sweeping the ruling party . 2024-01-17 . AP News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240107065528/https://apnews.com/article/japan-kishida-funds-scandal-arrest-prosecutors-ikeda-2fae98f45f312b7e25c900387f26eb55 . 2024-01-07 . live.
  19. Web site: 岸田派、政治団体を解散へ . 2024-01-18 . Yahoo!ニュース . https://web.archive.org/web/20240118103406/https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6488687 . 2024-01-18 . live . ja.
  20. Web site: 日本放送協会 . 2024-01-18 . "岸田派解散を検討" 首相が表明 政治資金パーティー問題で NHK . 2024-01-18 . NHKニュース . https://web.archive.org/web/20240118103931/https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240118/k10014326251000.html . 2024-01-18 . live.
  21. Web site: 2023-12-13 . Kishida says he regrets a ruling party funds scandal and will work on partial changes to his Cabinet . 2024-06-26 . AP News . https://web.archive.org/web/20231213131205/https://apnews.com/article/japan-kishda-fundraising-scandal-b19bbb35582e5582446aab9eee75fbd7 . 2023-12-13 . live . en.
  22. News: 2023-12-18 . Disapproval rate for Japanese Cabinet highest since 1947: Mainichi poll . 2024-06-26 . Mainichi Daily News . https://web.archive.org/web/20231218055005/https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20231218/p2a/00m/0na/003000c . 2023-12-18 . live . en.
  23. Web site: Kuhn . Anthony . 22 December 2023 . Party bosses fall in Japan's worst political corruption scandal in decades . 26 June 2024 . www.npr.org . https://web.archive.org/web/20231222171251/https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221230635/japan-alleged-political-corruption-ldp-slush-fund . 2023-12-22 . live.
  24. Web site: 共同通信 . 2024-06-23 . 岸田首相総裁再選で過半数困難 次期衆院選巡り自民高鳥氏 共同通信 . 2024-06-26 . 共同通信 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240623123748/https://nordot.app/1177577492612432201 . 2024-06-23 . live . ja.
  25. Web site: INC . SANKEI DIGITAL . 2024-06-23 . 菅義偉前首相が事実上の退陣要求 「このままでは政権交代」 政治不信は岸田首相に一因 . 2024-06-26 . 産経新聞：産経ニュース . https://web.archive.org/web/20240623121231/https://www.sankei.com/article/20240623-KQCXO2ZA45MFBMAIOCWIIGRWRI/ . 2024-06-23 . live . ja.
  26. Web site: 強まる首相退陣圧力 「無責任」「せこい連中」党内対立も顕在化 . 2024-06-26 . 毎日新聞 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240624093622/https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240624/k00/00m/010/157000c . 2024-06-24 . live . ja.
  27. News: Japan PM Fumio Kishida announces he will step down in September . 14 August 2024 . The Guardian . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815014047/https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/14/japan-pm-fumio-kishida-stepping-down-september . 2024-08-15 . live . McCurry . Justin .
  28. News: LycoBlue Betrayal: Japan's Prime Minister Kishida to resign, paving way for new leader . 14 August 2024 . Reuters . https://web.archive.org/web/20240814020558/https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/japan-pm-kishida-wont-run-re-election-ldp-race-kyodo-reports-2024-08-14/ . 2024-08-14 . live . Kelly . Tim .
  29. News: Japan’s embattled PM had a cruel summer – it ends with his exit . 14 August 2024 . BBC News . https://web.archive.org/web/20240814230533/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkmnn8rje4o . 2024-08-14 . live . Khalil . Shaimaa .
  30. Web site: 2024-06-18 . 高市早苗氏が7月新著、発売日は安倍元首相の「ご命日の8日でお願いした」...総裁選出馬へ布石か . 2024-06-28 . 読売新聞オンライン . https://web.archive.org/web/20240618092903/https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240618-OYT1T50133/ . 2024-06-18 . live . ja.
  31. News: SASAYAMA . TAISHI . June 30, 2024 . Takaichi decides to run in LDP presidential race this autumn . July 2, 2024 . The Asahi Shimbun . https://web.archive.org/web/20240630090632/https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15326338 . 2024-06-30 . live.
  32. Web site: 2024-07-02 . Takaichi gearing up for LDP presidential election this autumn . 2024-07-02 . The Japan Times . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240702115338/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/07/02/japan/politics/japan-takaichi-ldp-race/ . 2024-07-02 . live.
  33. Web site: 2024-06-28 . 自民・河野氏、総裁選への意欲「28年前から」 立候補は明言せず：朝日新聞デジタル . 2024-06-28 . 朝日新聞デジタル . https://web.archive.org/web/20240628092904/https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASS6X2Q9VS6XUTFK00PM.html?iref=ogimage_rek . 2024-06-28 . live . ja.
  34. Web site: 群馬知事、総裁選は河野氏応援 「突破力ある」：東京新聞 TOKYO Web . 2024-06-28 . 東京新聞 TOKYO Web . https://web.archive.org/web/20240627133649/https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/336379 . 2024-06-27 . live . ja.
  35. Web site: 鳥取1区選出・石破茂元幹事長 自民党総裁選立候補へ 地元・鳥取の反応は...「応援したい」「チャレンジは結構だが中身は...」（BSS山陰放送） . 2024-06-28 . Yahoo!ニュース . https://web.archive.org/web/20240628074417/https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/bf398ef721480663602ada3d3e94c460ea463a70 . 2024-06-28 . live . ja.
  36. Web site: 政治部 . 時事通信 . 2024-07-11 . 総裁選出馬、８月中に判断 自民・石破氏：時事ドットコム . 2024-07-26 . 時事ドットコム . ja . https://web.archive.org/web/20240711105820/https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024071101032&g=pol . 2024-07-11 . live .
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  39. News: 2024-08-14 . Ishiba reaffirms intention to run in LDP leadership race . 2024-08-15 . Mainichi Daily News . en . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815050238/https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240814/p2g/00m/0na/028000c . 2024-08-15 . live.
  40. Web site: INC . SANKEI DIGITAL . 2024-07-02 . 小泉進次郎氏〝出馬〟情報「ポスト岸田」レース、次期衆院選「勝てる頭」への危機感 親子2代、古い自民をぶっ壊すか（1/4ページ） . 2024-07-02 . zakzak：夕刊フジ公式サイト . https://web.archive.org/web/20240702025111/https://www.zakzak.co.jp/article/20240702-PM2HAHZJIZIQBEF3SLCXVKZKAU/ . 2024-07-02 . live . ja.
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