August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion explained

Conflict:August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion
Partof:attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Place:Kursk Oblast and Belgorod Oblast,[1] Russia
Date:6 August 2024 – present
Result:Ongoing
Territory:Ukrainian occupation of Kursk Oblast (partial)
Commander1: Oleksandr Syrskyi[2]
Volodymyr Artyukh[3]
Dmytro Kholod[4]
Eduard Moskaliov
Commander2: Andrey Belousov
Yunus-Bek Yevkurov[5]
Alexei Smirnov
Aleksey Dyumin[6]
Alexander Bortnikov[7]
Apti Alaudinov
Combatant1: Ukraine
Strength1:Russian claim:
300 soldiers (6 August 2024)
11 tanks
20+ armoured fighting vehicles[8]
1,000 soldiers[9] [10] (7 August 2024)Western estimate:
10,000 to 15,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles[11] (as of 14 August 2024)
15,000–30,000 soldiers[12]
Strength2:Unknown
Casualties1:4 tanks and 41 other vehicles of all types[13]
(1 Challenger 2 tank[14] [15] and several Stryker AFVs)
2 M142 HIMARS launchers
1 Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile system[16]
1 S-125 surface-to-air missile system[17]
Per Russia:
1,350 casualties (as of 11 Aug.)[18]
102 armored vehicles (as of 9 Aug.; tanks, IFVs, APCs)[19]
26 unmanned aerial vehicles
100 surrendered
Casualties2:Unknown number of vehicle losses (less than Ukraine; 2 T-62M tanks)[20]
2 Ka-52 helicopters[21]
Per Ukraine:
1 Mi-28 helicopter
1 Su-34 aircraft
1 T-90M tank captured[22]
300+ captured (officially confirmed)[23]
1,000–2,000+ captured (unconfirmed accounts)[24]
Casualties3:31 civilians killed
143 civilians injured
144,000+ civilians evacuated[25] (133,000+ evacuated in Kursk Oblast and 11,000+ evacuated in Belgorod Oblast)[26]
Units1:See order of battle
Units2:See order of battle

On 6 August 2024, during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and clashed with the Russian Armed Forces and Russian border guard.[27] [28] [29] According to Russia, at least 1,000 troops crossed the border on the first day, supported by tanks and armored vehicles.[30] A state of emergency was declared in Kursk Oblast,[30] and Russian reserves were rushed to the area.[31] On 10 August, Russian authorities introduced a "counter-terrorist operation" regime in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts.[32] [33] By the end of the first week, the Ukrainian military said it had captured 1000km2 of Russian territory, while Russian authorities acknowledged that Ukraine had captured 28 settlements.[34] Ukraine established a military administration for the territory under its control on 15 August 2024.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, there had been several smaller incursions into Russia by pro-Ukrainian forces.[35] Ukraine had supported these ground incursions, but denied direct involvement.[31] The Kursk incursion surprised both Russia and Ukraine's allies.[31] It is the most significant attack across the border since the 2022 invasion,[36] and the first carried out primarily by Ukrainian regular forces.

Background

Russia's military chief Valery Gerasimov reportedly ignored intelligence warnings that Ukrainian troops were massing near the Russia–Ukraine border.[37] Bloomberg reported that Russian intelligence had warned of a possible invasion of the Kursk region two weeks in advance.[38] According to a source close to the Kremlin, Putin was not informed of the threat.[39]

All legal national borders of Russia are controlled by the FSB Border Guard under the command of FSB director Alexander Bortnikov. Most of the men guarding the border in the Kursk Oblast were young, inexperienced conscripts, lightly equipped army infantry units, and the National Guard (Rosgvardiya).[40] [41] [42] Some of the conscripts were unarmed.[43]

Timeline

6 August

On 6 August 2024, Russia reportedly deployed air and artillery forces to counter a Ukrainian border incursion in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian fighters, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, crossed into Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense responded by sending troops and aviation units to the area. According to Russia, the incursion involved around 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks, and over 20 armored combat vehicles,[8] and was aimed in two directions: at Oleshnya in the direction of Sudzha, east-northeast of Sumy, and towards Nikolayevo-Darino, north-northeast of Sumy.[44] It was reported that Chechen Akhmat battalions were responding to the raids.

The attack began at 08:00 MSK. A statement by Russian forces on Telegram at around 18:20, claiming that they had pushed the Ukrainians back across the border, and inflicted significant losses through artillery, air strikes, and drones, was later edited by them to imply fighting was ongoing. Moscow released videos purportedly showing Ukrainian tanks being targeted from the air. Social media footage suggested Russian warplanes operated at low altitudes over Kursk Oblast to repel the attack. Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, reported that three people died during the events: a woman in the border incursion and two individuals in separate drone attacks.[45] Russian milbloggers also largely dismissed the supposed raids as "unsuccessful" and a "media stunt".

Russian milbloggers claimed that the offensive was being performed by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), while the New Voice of Ukraine citing a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence reported that the RVC was not present. The RVC's ally, the Freedom of Russia Legion, which accompanied the RVC in a raid earlier in the year refused to comment if they were participating.

7 August

Russian forces continued attempts to push back Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had captured 11 settlements and had advanced 9miles deep into the oblast. Government agencies were ordered by President Vladimir Putin to "provide the needed assistance to residents", and deputy prime minister Denis Manturov was sent to oversee their work.[46] Kursk Oblast was placed under a state of emergency by governor Smirnov.[47] [48] Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova protested about "the criminal Kiev regime" and said that "all this only reinforces the sense of impunity of Ukrainian neo-Nazis."[49] Putin met with key members of the security establishment including Valery Gerasimov, Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Shoigu and Andrey Belousov on the Kursk incursion.[50]

Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces had advanced at least 10km (10miles) across the Russian border, having penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces were trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 18:00 local time on 7 August, Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and were now fighting on the outskirts of Korenevo and Sudzha. Additionally, geolocated footage showed four Ukrainian personnel capturing at least 40 Russian POWs, as well as fighting within city limits of Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces capturing a gas-station and the entry check-point. The previous day, 35 Russian servicemen were claimed to have been captured by Ukrainian forces after failing to prevent a breakthrough. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian lieutenant, callsign "Alex", claimed that 300 Russian soldiers were captured in the "Kursk People's Republic" during two days, reportedly "conducted by a contingent of unidentified armed formations". He added that he hoped they would be handed over to his unit.[51] [52]

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko reported that Ukrainian forces had captured the Sudzha gas hub which feeds the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline into the rest of Europe. Additionally, there were reports of fighting in, a village 24km (15miles) from the border.[53]

8 August

RIA Novosti reported that four people died as a result of 'attacks' by the AFU in the oblast as fighting continued for the third day. Russian milblogger Yuri Podolyaka said that "Sudzha is basically lost to us" and that Ukrainian forces were pushing towards Lgov.[54]

Ukrainian forces were in control of the western part of Sudzha and the surrounding roads; skirmishes continued in the town.[55]

According to Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, six Ukrainian drones and five missiles were shot down during the night and morning.[56]

Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 430 square kilometers, and claimed that Ukrainian forces entered the settlement of and had taken control of the villages of,, and . Skirmishes took place in the village of Snagost.[57] Ukrainian troops were present in areas 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.[58]

9 August

Reports claimed that Ukrainian troops had captured around 100[59] –200 square kilometers of territory, at a depth of around 10 kilometers on average.[60] Based on independent and own analyses, CNN put the area of territory over which Russia had lost control at 250square kilometers at least.[61]

A convoy of Russian troops was reportedly destroyed in a HIMARS strike in the village of Oktyabrskoye while moving along the route connecting Glushkovsky District and Kursk and passing through Rylsky and Lgovsky districts. Footage of the aftermath showed 15 burned military trucks, with some bodies inside. According to the Ukrainian analyst group NEXTA, "each of these trucks can carry up to 35 fully equipped soldiers. The video shows 14 destroyed vehicles, which suggests that the Russian army could have lost between 200 and 490 soldiers in one night as a result of the strike... This could become one of the largest one-time losses for the Russian army since the beginning of the full-scale war".[62] [63] [64] [65] A Russian Telegram channel wrote: "Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely Himars) in the entire war."[66]

Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat units that had been stationed in Belgorod and Kursk since the last incursion, informed Russian media that he and his forces did not engage Ukrainian troops as they passed their positions, instead opting to retreat until more Russian reinforcements could arrive, while some Russian milbloggers claimed they fled from the battle.[67] [68] [69] Alaudinov had at that point in time been the only Russian commander to admit that Ukrainian forces are in control of settlements along the border.[69]

In anticipation of Russian airstrikes, 20,000 people were ordered to evacuate from Sumy Oblast. Russian reinforcements, many of which were units already deployed around the Russia–Ukraine border, continued to arrive near the frontline in Kursk Oblast, where fighting persisted over Sudzha.[70] [71] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russia seized the border village of in Sumy Oblast, while Ukraine reportedly made a minor incursion in a new direction, directed at the border village of Kucherov, but did not capture it.[72]

The Russian MOD published a report on the transfer of a military column from Belgorod Oblast to Sudzhansky District, which included 152-mm self-propelled "Msta-S" artillery pieces and combat support vehicles.[73] Combat markings showed that Russian command was transferring battle-hardened troops to Kursk Oblast as reinforcement.[74]

The head of the Kurchatov municipal administration, Igor Korpunkov, reported that the fighting was taking place 30 kilometers from Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.[75] [76] Authorities blocked all access to the nuclear plant, construction workers at the site left the area, and equipment at the plant was deenergized. Rosatom announced a temporary reduction in the number of personnel at the site. Around 15:00, an explosion was heard in Kurchatov. Russian NBC Protection Troops were also deployed to protect the plant.[77] Governor of Kursk Oblast Alexey Smirnov reported that a fire started in one of the districts as a result of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a transformer substation. As a result of the UAV attack, Kurchatov, as well as parts of the Kurchatovsky, Oktyabrsky, Bolshesoldatsky, Oboyansky and Belovsky districts, were left without power supply.[78]

According to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army "South" Serhiy Bratchuk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to seize the ammunition depots in Sudzha.[79] [80]

By 9 August, Russian forces had retaken the village of Snagost, and in the north had pushed Ukraine back to the northern village of Malaya Loknya back from Ukraine's positions in Milyutino and Generalovka.[72] The number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast was estimated by CEIP senior fellow Dara Massicot to be around 10,000–12,000, containing elements from four to five Ukrainian brigades.[81]

A counter-terrorism operational regime under the FSB was introduced in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts to temporarily take control of the regions till the conditions return to normalcy.[82] This means in practice that "movement is restricted, vehicles can be seized, phone calls can be monitored, areas are declared no-go zones, checkpoints introduced, and security is beefed up at key infrastructure sites."[33] Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service, was placed at the head of these counter-terrorism operations.[7]

10 August

Ukrainian troops launched a minor incursion in Belgorod Oblast with the 252nd Battalion taking part in clashes in the village of, Graivoronsky District and later claiming to have captured it.[83] [84] [85]

According to analysts cited by the The New York Times, the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast had largely been stopped by Russian reinforcements at this point, and the situation stabilized, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold on to their captured territory.[86] Conversely, other sources such as the Washington Post and Frankfurter Rundschau reported that Russia remained unable to control the situation, with continued Ukrainian advances.[87] The Russian Ministry of Defense made similar claims that they had stopped any Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast.[88]

Battles were reported in Olgovka near Korenevo, the Ivashkovskoye farmstead, and Malaya Loknya.[89]

The Russian Armed Forces claimed to have regained control of the village of Makhnovka east of Sudzha.[90] Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 650km2.[91]

In the evening, Kursk Oblast governor Smirnov said that 15 people were injured in Kursk city after the wreckage of an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell onto a residential area.[92]

11 August

In its morning report, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the destruction of four Tochka-U tactical missiles and 14 drones in the skies over Kursk Oblast overnight.[93]

On the night of 11 August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered Belovsky District, located southeast of Sudzhansky District, which was confirmed by the head of the district and the acting governor. The head of the district asked those who had evacuated not to return.[94]

Proekt claimed that the combat zone had increased to 720km2.[95]

12 August

Russian authorities began evacuating civilians from Krasnoyaruzhsky District in Belgorod Oblast because of the widening Ukrainian incursion. Krasnoyaruzhsky is immediately south of Kursk Oblast, and also borders Ukraine.[96]

In a friendly fire incident, a Russian Ka-52 helicopter attacked a Russian troop column in the village of Krivitskiye Budy in Belovsky District, destroying a 2S19M2 "Msta-S" self-propelled gun.[97]

Russian authorities confirmed that Ukrainians had gained control of at least 28 settlements,[98] while Ukrainian OSINT claimed that Ukrainians had control of 44 settlements and were contesting another 10 settlements.[99] [100] The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi said that his forces control over 1000km2 of Russian territory.[101]

Ukrainian soldiers published a video of themselves driving through the center of Sudzha claiming that the city center was under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[102]

The number of captured Russian soldiers verified by video evidence was reported as having increased to 265.[103]

13 August

According to reports that were not immediately confirmed but deemed credible by Western observers, Putin placed Alexey Dyumin in command of the defense against the incursion.[104] [105]

Russia called for an immediate special meeting in the "Arria format" of the United Nations Security Council.[106] [107] According to Ukraine a "relatively small" number of Russian troops were relocated to Kursk from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, with the Russian offensives in the latter two regions continuing.[108] In his evening address, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his forces were in control of roughly 1,000 square kilometres and 74 settlements inside Kursk Oblast.[109] In a meeting with Zelenskyy, Lithuanian minister of defense Laurynas Kasčiūnas claimed that Russia relocated some of its troops from its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to Kursk, without going into further details.[110]

The Russian defence ministry claimed to have thwarted Ukrainian assaults in Korenevsky District near the villages of Obshchy Kolodez, Kauchuk, Alekseyevsky, and Snagost and in Sudzhansky District in the direction of Martynovka, and also in the areas of Korenevo, Oleshnya, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Sudzha, and Mikhaylovka.[111]

Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were operating over Kursk and had reportedly destroyed a Russian command post in Tyotkino.[112] [113]

14 August

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a massive air and drone attack on Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Volgograd, Bryansk, Oryol, and Rostov Oblasts, adding that it had shot down 117 drones and four missiles.[114]

Ukrainian state television aired a report claiming that Sudzha was under Ukrainian control and showing Ukrainian soldiers removing the Russian flag from an official building.[115] Ukrainian forces were also shown delivering humanitarian aid to civilians in the town.[116] However, Apti Alaudinov claimed that these events never happened without providing any evidence to the contrary.[117] [118]

Ukraine claimed to have captured 100 Russian soldiers in less than 24 hours, reportedly from the 488th Guards Regiment and the "Akhmat" Battalions,[119] [120] with Zelenskyy claiming the day before that "hundreds" had so far surrendered during the incursion.[121] According to the state security service of Ukraine, this was the largest single surrender of Russian troops so far.[122]

Ukraine reportedly attempted to advance in three directions: east from Sudzha toward the village of Belitsa and the neighboring settlement of Giri, north towards Lgov, and northwest towards Korenevo on the road to Rylsk. A fierce battle was reported near the settlement of Kauchuk, approximately 30 kilometers from Lgov. Russian forces dug new trenches south of Lgov and in Chermoshnoy. Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced 1–2 kilometers and completed clearance of Sudzha.[123] [124]

Cherkasskaya Konopelka, to the south of Sudzha, was reportedly captured by Ukraine, while the village of Kurilovka, the hamlet of Dmitryukov and the villages of Borki and Krupets were also reportedly occupied.[125] Ukrainian troops entered the village of Kamyshnoye where an urban battle was reported.[126] The town of Glushkovo was ordered evacuated by governor Smirnov,[127] with the evacuation of the entire surrounding Glushkovsky District of Kursk Oblast also begun that same day.[128]

According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine was considering the establishment of military command infrastructure in occupied Russian territory.[129]

The Ukrainian military claimed to have shot down an Su-34 aircraft over Kursk Oblast.[130]

15 August

Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the establishment of a military administration to be headed by General Eduard Moskaliov, adding that 82 settlements in the oblast were now under Kyiv's control.[131] In his evening address, Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had taken full control of Sudzha.[132]

The Russian MOD claimed to have recaptured the village of Krupets. It also confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had advanced approximately two kilometers.[133] [134]

Journalists from Italy's RAI network and Ukraine's Hromadske network visited the Sudzha area and interviewed local residents.[135] [136] [137]

16 August

The 80th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published a video showing the destruction of a Russian post and the capture of more than 50 Russian soldiers during the first hours of the incursion.[138] [139] [140]

It was reported that Russia was hiring trench diggers to build defences with wages of around US$2,500 a month with the promise of working outside combat zones. Satelite images showed the expansion of Russian trenchlines in the region.[141]

The major road bridge over the Seym River in Glushkovo was destroyed by the Ukrainian military, approximately 50 kilometers west of the Russian territory then controlled by Ukraine. The loss of the bridge could hinder the relocation via land routes of the ~20,000 civilians in the district.[142] [143]

The 8th Regiment of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces published a video in which they ambushed a Russian truck, purportedly killing a dozen soldiers "in a few minutes".[144]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Culture and Information Policy posted photos of a monument of Vladimir Lenin in Sudzha being demolished by Ukrainian forces.[145] [146]

17 August

Russian forces reportedly blew up two bridges near Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi after withdrawing from the right bank of the Seym River in the area.[147]

The Ukrainian military claimed the capture of the settlement of Korenevo but the Russian MOD described the settlement as contested.[148]

18 August

Ukrainian forces destroyed another bridge over the Seym river near Zvannoye.[149] [150] [151]

The 80th Air Assault Brigade published a video of a T-90M tank that they had captured in Kursk Oblast. They claimed to have repaired the tank and would use it against the Russians.[152]

According to Russian bloggers, both Ukraine and Russia reinforced their forces battling in Kursk, with Russia moving some forces from other fronts to Kursk.[153]

Marines from the 501st Separate Naval Infantry Battalion posted a video of them tearing down the Russian flag from the municipal building of Apanasovka.[154]

19 August

Russia claimed that the Ukrainian military destroyed the third and last bridge over the Seym River in Korenevsky District leading to possible logistical strain on over 700 square kilometers of Russian territory.[155]

In his evening address, President Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces were in control of 92 settlements in Kursk Oblast and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory.[156]

20 August

The Russian interior ministry warned residents of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts against using online dating websites and security cameras, citing concerns of information being gathered by Ukrainian forces.[157] Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, former head of Ingushetia and incumbent deputy head of the Ministry of Defense was appointed as Andrei Belousov's deputy in the Coordinating Council for the Security Issues of the Bordering Territories. Belousov reported that Yevkurov was already in Kursk Oblast that day.[5]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed to have advanced towards the villages of Novoivanivka and Kulbaki. It also stated that Korenevo was being attacked from the south. The settlement on the Sudzha-Kursk Martynivka road was also claimed to be controlled by Ukraine, who also claimed to have took over Plekhove in the south but stated that Birky, Ocheretane and Gir'i were under Russian control.[158]

21 August

Ukraine claimed to have destroyed several pontoon bridges used by Russian forces along the Seym River.[159]

The Russian Air Force carried out 17 airstrikes using 27 guided aerial bombs within Ukrainian-held Russian territory, and the Russian Army conducted artillery strikes on the Ukrainian border settlements of Porozok and Pozhne.[160]

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces had repelled Ukrainian assaults from Komarovka, Korenevo, Malaya Loknya and Russkaya Konopelka and attacked Ukrainian soldiers near eight villages in Kursk Oblast and nine villages in Sumy Oblast.[160]

Related events

Lipetsk Oblast

On 9 August at about 03:00, Lipetsk-2 airfield in Lipetsk Oblast neighboring Kursk was attacked by a UAV, and residents published videos of a powerful explosion. A state of emergency was declared, and four villages were evacuated. According to Ukraine, at the time of the attack, there were 700 guided aerial bombs and Russian military aircraft at the airfield, and UAVs hit warehouses with guided aerial bombs and a number of other objects in the area of the airfield. At least six people were injured in the attack.[161] [162]

Belgorod Oblast

On 9 August, Russian authorities said that one person was killed in an aerial attack on the border town of Shebekino which also injured two people and damaged nine apartment buildings, 18 houses and 10 vehicles.[163] On the morning of 10 August, Z-publics, as well as Ukrainian military Telegram channels, reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had managed to take control of the village of Poroz.[85] On 14 August, a state of emergency was declared in the oblast by governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.[164] By 14 August, the Ukrainian incursion had penetrated 6order=flipNaNorder=flip into the oblast and had captured multiple positions, but a fierce Russian response led to heavy Ukrainian casualties and a subsequent retreat from the captured territory by 15 August.[165]

On 16 August, footage emerged of a Russian marine showing off the severed head of a Ukrainian soldier, near the Kolotilovka checkpoint. The footage appeared to have been taken on 12 August after an unsuccessful attempt by the Ukrainians to breach the Russian lines.[166]

Belarusian–Ukrainian border

On 10 August, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine. This announcement followed statements by president Alexander Lukashenko about Ukrainian attack drones shot down over Belarusian's airspace. The head of the Center for Combating Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Andriy Kovalenko interpreted these actions by Minsk as an attempt to help Russia and distract the attention of the Ukrainian command to the Belarusian direction.[167]

On 11 August, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that it was moving its tanks to the border with Ukraine to reinforce the troop grouping there.[168]

Reactions

Russia

The Russian Ministry of Defence initially claimed on 6 August that the attack had been repelled. The ministry stated, "After suffering losses, the Ukrainian sabotage group retreated to its territory, while some of the fighters attempted to establish a position on the territory adjacent to the state border, where they were blocked by Russian army units."[169] [170] President Vladimir Putin described the AFU's incursion into Kursk Oblast as a "large-scale provocation." He accused the "Kyiv regime" of "indiscriminately firing various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, houses, and ambulances." Putin stated that he plans to meet with the heads of the security agencies, the Defense Ministry, and the Federal Security Service (FSB).[171] [16]

State Duma deputy and retired major general Andrey Gurulyov criticized the Russian army for failing to defend Kursk Oblast.[172] On 8 August, Gurulyov said in a television interview that the Russian military knew about the planned Ukrainian invasion of Kursk a month before it happened but "from the top came the order not to panic, and that those above know better."[173]

Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov told The Washington Post that "the signal came from intelligence to the leadership, but ... measures were not taken. This is a failure of the entire system of intelligence, and since Putin is responsible for this, then it's clear this is a blow to Putin."[174] Markov said that "Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken" and Ukraine is trying "to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange."

Former President and deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a statement that the incursion made it so "This [war] is no longer just an operation to retake our official territories and punish the Nazis. It is possible and necessary to go to the lands of the still existing Ukraine. To Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipropetrovsk, to Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and beyond," and that "The current military campaign will also end in Russia's unconditional victory."

After a HIMARS strike reportedly destroyed a Russian battalion on the night of 8–9 August, numerous Russian milbloggers responded with outrage. Many of them called for the commanders who authorized the movement of the column to be punished, such as Russian military analyst Roman Alekhine wrote that "we need executions". Meanwhile, "The Two Majors" blog wrote that "whoever gave the order to move in columns in the area... should be sentenced under the laws of war". The channel "Thirteenth", which has ties to the Wagner Group, called those responsible "brainless creatures". "In the third year of the war, even a monkey could be trained, but not some [Russian] Ministry of Defense staff general who gave the orders for such a suicidal march in the frontline zone".[175]

On 11 August, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated "The Kyiv regime is continuing its terrorist activity with the sole purpose of intimidating the peaceful population of Russia" and that the incursion "makes no sense from a military point of view."[176]

FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov called the Ukrainian offensive "a terrorist attack" and accused Ukraine of attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure "with the support of the collective West."[177]

On 16 August, Putin's aide Nikolai Patrushev claimed, without providing evidence, that the invasion of Kursk Oblast was "planned with the participation of NATO and Western special services",[178] calling the incursion "a desperate act, driven by the impending collapse of the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv."[179] On the same day, Russia summoned Italian ambassador Cecilia Piccioni to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow due to the RAI news reporting in the Ukrainian occupied parts of Kursk Oblast the previous day. The ministry accused the journalists of entering Russia illegally to report about a "criminal terrorist attack committed by Ukrainian soldiers".[180] On 17 August, the FSB filed a criminal case against journalists Simone Traini and Stefania Battistini for unauthorized entry into Kursk Oblast.[181] On 20 August, the U.S. Embassy's Chief of Mission Stephanie Holmes was summoned by the foreign ministry over reportage by CNN journalists in occupied Kursk Oblast.[182] On 22 August, the FSB also filed charges against CNN reporter Nick Paton Walsh and Ukrainian journalists Olesia Borovyk and Diana Butsko for illegal entry into Russia.[183]

Ukraine

On the first day of the incursion, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, refuted Russian claims that the situation at the border was under control, replying "Russia does not control the border".[184] President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, acknowledged the incursion on 8 August, but not Ukraine's role. Podolyak said it was an opportunity to see how ordinary Russians feel about their government, but said it is unlikely they would "come out with flowers to greet the anti-Putin tanks".[185] Podolyak said Ukraine had no interest in occupying Kursk, but that it had to force Russia into fair negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.[186]

President Zelenskyy first acknowledged that Ukraine's forces were involved during his evening address on 10August. He said "Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor".[187] On 12 August, Zelenskyy said that "Russia must be forced to make peace", adding "Russia brought war to others, now it's coming home". He maintained that the operation was a matter of security for Ukraine and that its troops captured areas from which Russia had launched numerous strikes.[188] According to Zelenskyy and other officials, the capture of hundreds of Russian soldiers was replenishing Ukraine's "exchange fund" for prisoner swaps.[189] On 19 August, Zelenskyy said that he did not disclose preparations for the incursion to Kyiv's allies, because they might deem it to cross Russia's "strictest of all red lines".[190]

Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Georgiy Tykhy said that "unlike Russia", Ukraine is not interested in taking the territory of its neighbor. He said "the purpose of the operation is to save the lives of our people and protect the territory of Ukraine from Russian strikes", as well as to hinder Russia's movement of troops to the Donbas. Tykhy added: "The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace ... the sooner the raids by the Ukrainian defense forces into Russia will stop".[191] [192]

On 14 August, Zelenskyy said that the creation of civil administrative bodies in Kursk Oblast should not be ruled out. Deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian military was creating a "security zone" on Russian territory to protect Ukrainian border areas. She said that Ukraine would be conducting humanitarian operations in the area, that international humanitarian organizations would be allowed to enter, and that safe corridors would be opened for civilians to evacuate toward Ukraine or to other parts of Russia.[193]

United States

The White House said that it was seeking an understanding from Ukraine regarding the incursion, adding that it had had no advance knowledge of the attack.[194] On 8 August, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the incursion is consistent with the US policy on the use of weapons.[195] On 12 August, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby called on Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine if he "doesn't like" the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.[196] On 13 August, President Joe Biden said that the Ukrainian incursion was "creating a real dilemma" for Putin.[197]

Germany

In response to the Kursk incursion, the German Foreign Ministry stated on 9 August that weapons transferred from Germany to Ukraine become the property of Ukraine and can be used by its armed forces as they deem necessary and correct. The German Foreign Ministry further stated that Ukraine's right to self-defense is enshrined in international law and not limited to its own territory.[195] [198]

Chair of the Bundestag's Defence Committee Marcus Faber told German media in the first few days of the incursion that Ukraine was free to use "all materials" provided, including Leopard 2 deliveries.[195] He tweeted on 11 August claiming that the incursion forced Russia to move forces from the front in the east, reducing the pressure there and that this provided an occasion to discuss further Leopard 2 deliveries.[199]

China

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said all parties should "observe the three principles for deescalating the situation, namely no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no fueling the flame by any party", added that Beijing will continue to maintain contact with the international community and play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the "Ukrainian crisis".[200]

Belarus

On 15 August, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko urged both Russia and Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war. He accused the West of supporting the incursion into Kursk Oblast in order to encourage new mobilization and destabilize the situation in Russia and Belarus.[201]

On 18 August, Lukashenko said that Ukraine had massed 120,000 troops near the border with Belarus, and that he had ordered a third of the Belarusian army to be deployed near the border with Ukraine.[202]

Syria

On 10 August, a statement by the Syrian Foreign Ministry said the country was following "with great concern" the incursion,which it described as a "terrorist attack".[203]

Organisations

The Council of the Free Russia Forum welcomed the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory, expressing condolences to the families and friends of civilians killed in the attack on Kursk Oblast.[204]

Following reports on 10 August of fighting near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, called on Russia and Ukraine to exercise "maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear accident.[205]

The Anti-War Committee of Russia, a group formed by Russians in exile, issued a statement criticizing Putin. It said "the absence of any significant military units of the Russian Federation on the border at the time of the attack and the simultaneous continuous conduct of aggressive military operations for more than 900 days on the territory of sovereign Ukraine is the best proof that Putin is lying again about 'protecting Russia.' He doesn't care about Russia, he is only protecting himself."[43]

The Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), consisting of six post-Soviet states, neither supported nor condemned the incursion.[206]

Analysis

The August 2024 incursion was the first incidence since World War II that Russian territory had been occupied by foreign forces.[207] The incursion has been dubbed the "second battle of Kursk", in allusion to the 1943 battle in the same region.[208] [209] The incursion is also larger than earlier ground raids, with at least two brigades from the regular Ukrainian forces participating. These forces are mechanized, highly mobile and protected by significant air defense. The incursion appears to have taken Russia by surprise. The Institute for the Study of War reports that, according to Russian sources the Ukrainians use "novel and innovative tactics" and that small armored units bypass Russian defenses, strike in the rear and then withdraw.[58] Forbes reported a "new style of warfare" where the first step is to neutralize Russian drones with physical attacks and jamming which also affect radio communication. Then high-precision drones, working in swarms, attack Russian forces. Last, Ukrainan troops move in to secure the trenches, the radio jammers are brought forward and the cycle repeats.[210]

The Ukrainian surprise offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk suggests an attempt to shift the momentum against Russia. A significant challenge for Ukraine has been responding to Russia's strategy of expanding the front line, particularly with intensified fighting around Kharkiv. According to Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, this offensive has further stretched Ukraine's forces, reducing their reserves to counter Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.[211] On 10 August, Ukraine said it had recorded the lowest number of "combat engagements" on its territory since 10 June, which some observers considered as a sign that the incursion had brought relief to Ukrainian forces.

Retired Major General Mick Ryan sees several possible objectives for the incursion. On the tactical level, seizing ground and destroying Russian forces. On an operation level, to draw Russian forces away from Donetsk and in general to force Russia to reconsider their disposition of forces. Other objectives may be more related to the terrain itself, like the Kursk nuclear plant and key roads and railroads. Finally, on the strategic level, to slow Russia's offensive momentum, to shift the narrative and counter Russian talking points about ther inevitable victory, and also to boost Ukrainan morale.[212]

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia was "the first on this scale with conventional forces, rather than proxies [or] 'resistance' groups." He also assessed that earlier raids into Kursk and Belgorod were designed to probe for Russian weak spots, and that the overall goal of the raid is to dismantle Russia's ability to funnel more troops into the Kharkiv front and that "It's unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory." BBC journalists noted the overall decrease of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian frontline at around 15–17% after the beginning of Kursk raids, which could be the sign of Russia taking forces from the frontline into Kursk Oblast.[213]

Nico Lange, former chief of staff at the German Federal Ministry of Defence, stated that the incursion was likely "to establish a negotiating position and provide relief on other front lines" and that it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would hold territory in Kursk for long periods of time.

Retired Polish General and former commander of special forces, Roman Polko, stated that "It's good that Ukraine is taking actions that surprise the Russians," and that "Ukraine is in a defensive position and is unable to conduct an operation to push Russia from the occupied regions, but Ukraine is defending itself in an active way," and that "One can't allow the Russians to comfortably prepare new attacks."

Political analyst Andreas Umland suggested that the offensive could bring a quicker end to the war. He notes that Ukraine's allies had severely restricted the kinds of weapons sent to Ukraine and their permitted range, fearful of crossing the Kremlin's "red lines" and sparking World War III. One of those red lines was "taking the war to Russia with Western weapons". Umland concludes: "Part of the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to demonstrate, once again, the fallacy of the red-line argument". He added that if Ukrainian forces could hold Russian territory "it could strengthen Ukraine's leverage in any potential negotiations".[214] Likewise, Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council said the offensive "succeeded in making a complete mockery of Vladimir Putin's red lines". Dickinson wrote that the West "spent more than two years slow-walking military aid to Ukraine for fear of provoking Putin", but he maintained that "Putin's characteristically weak response to the Kursk offensive" showed there were "no more excuses for restricting Kyiv's ability to defend itself" and that "the quickest way to end the war is by arming Ukraine for victory".[215]

Impact

The attack reportedly pushed up natural gas prices 5% to €40 per megawatt-hour in Europe, while YouTube and phone networks experienced outages in Russia.[216] [217] [218]

The transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system decreased to 37.25 million cubic metres per day from the usual 42–42.4 million cubic metres.[219] Sudzha is home to the Soviet-era Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline, which continues to transport Russian natural gas from Western Siberia through Ukraine to Europe.[220] [221]

Nearly 200,000 civilians in Russia were displaced by the fighting.[222] Some of the displaced were to be moved to Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine.[223]

Russia's border with Ukraine in the Kursk region was defended by poorly trained conscripts (all male citizens aged 18–30 are subject to conscription for 1 year of active duty military service in the armed forces).[43] [174] Although President Putin repeatedly promised that young conscripts would not be deployed in the war with Ukraine, conscripts from several Russian regions were sent to fight with Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.[224] An online petition by mothers of conscripts pleading with Putin to withdraw conscripts from combat received nearly 10,000 signatures.[225]

According to the Russian independent server Astra, hundreds of Russian men who refused to fight in Ukraine for health or conscience reasons were transported from a military facility near St. Petersburg to the area around Kursk.[226] [227] Relatives of the soldiers expressed fears that the "refuseniks" would be used in human wave attacks.[228]

On 17 August, The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous diplomatic sources, that Ukraine's incursion into Russia disrupted plans for indirect talks in Qatar to halt mutual strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. Both Ukraine and Russia had planned to send their delegations to indirect talks mediated by Qatari officials, but Russian officials postponed the meeting in the wake of Ukraine's incursion. Some officials hoped it could be the first step toward a more comprehensive peace deal.[229] The United States and Ukraine declined to comment.[229] Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that there were "no direct or indirect negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the safety of civilian critical infrastructure facilities" and that after the assault on the Kursk Oblast, Putin ruled out the possibility of such talks.[230] [231] A Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats said that Putin probably lost interest in further talks in Qatar because the "Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure" and attacks on energy infrastructure are highly effective tactics that do more damage to Ukraine than to Russia, adding that Russia is more interested in talks with Ukraine about a broader ceasefire.[229]

The incursion led the Russian Central Election Commission to postpone voting for the 2024 Russian elections in seven municipalities located in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast that were originally scheduled for 6-8 September.[232]

Casualties

Russia claimed that six Ukrainian tanks and ten armored vehicles were lost in the initial engagement on 6 August.[8] [233] [234] Acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexei Smirnov, claimed that 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the area.[235] Russia later claimed on 9 August, that Ukraine had losses of 945 soldiers and 102 armored vehicles, although this could not be verified.[236] Ukraine claimed their forces had shot down an Mi-28 and two Ka-52[21] [237] helicopters.[238]

On 9 August 2024, HIMARS destroyed a convoy of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast in what Russian milbloggers described as one of the bloodiest attacks of the entire war.[66] [239]

On 12 August, Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Zhirokhov claimed that the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian manpower losses as "closer to 1 to 10", and the number of Russian POWs taken as "thousands".[240] Since most of the best Russian troops were deployed in Ukraine, most of the Russian soldiers protecting the Russian border in the Kursk region were young, inexperienced conscripts who suffered heavy losses in combat with experienced Ukrainian troops.[224] [43]

On 19 August, the Ukrainian resistance group Atesh claimed that a battalion from the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade had suffered heavy losses and had only 30% of its combat personnel left.[241]

The Russian state news agency TASS reported that at least 31 civilians had been killed since the start of the incursion, while at least 143 others,[242] including nine children, had been injured.[243] The Russian state broadcaster Russia-24 announced that one of its reporters, Evgeniy Poddubny, had been injured in a drone attack on his vehicle while reporting on the fighting in the affected areas on 7 August.[244] On 16 August, the All-Russia People's Front said that one of its medical staff and a media coordinator had been killed after their vehicle was shelled while assisting in evacuation efforts.[245]

Order of battle

Russia

Ukraine

See also

Notes and References

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  2. Web site: Ukraine forms military administration in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi says . 15 August 2024 . 15 August 2024 . The Kyiv Independent . 15 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815153617/https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-established-military-administration-in-russias-kursk-oblast/ . live .
  3. Web site: Number of settlements in Sumy region to increase where mandatory evacuation will be announced – Artyukh . 14 August 2024 . 15 August 2024 . UNN . 15 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240815111738/https://unn.ua/en/news/number-of-settlements-in-sumy-region-to-increase-where-mandatory-evacuation-will-be-announced-artyukh . live .
  4. Web site: Ukrainian forces advance in southern Russia, capturing dozens of enemy soldiers, Zelensky says . 14 August 2024 . 14 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240814175259/https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/14/europe/russia-belgorod-emergency-ukraine-incursion-intl-hnk/index.html . live .
  5. Web site: Генерал Евкуров стал замглавы совета по защите приграничных регионов . ru . . 2024-08-20 . 2024-08-20 . 20 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240820193132/https://www.rbc.ru/politics/20/08/2024/66c4a2519a79470ca9b012bb . live .
  6. Web site: Intel Slava Z. Telegram.
  7. Web site: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2024 . Harward . Christina . Gasparyan . Davit . Mappes . Grace . Evans . Angelica . Barros . George . Stepanenko . Kateryna . Institute for the Study of War . 10 August 2024 . 10 August 2024 . 11 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240811020652/https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2024 . live .
  8. Web site: 6 August 2024 . Moscow Rushes Troops to Kursk Region as 3 Killed in Ukrainian Attacks. 6 August 2024. The Moscow Times. en. 7 August 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240807000651/https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/08/06/moscow-rushes-troops-to-kursk-region-as-3-killed-in-ukrainian-attacks-a85947. live .
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  13. Web site: Out In The Open And On The Move In Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Forces Are Vulnerable—And Losing Lots Of Armored Vehicles . . 18 August 2024 . 18 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240818225259/https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/17/out-in-the-open-and-on-the-move-in-russias-kursk-oblast-ukrainian-forces-are-vulnerable-and-losing-lots-of-armored-vehicles/ . live .
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  16. Web site: 7 August 2024. Fighting continues in Russia's Kursk region as Ukrainian troops reportedly advance further into Russian territory. Meduza. 7 August 2024. 7 August 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240807132911/https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/07/fighting-continues-in-russia-s-kursk-region-as-ukrainian-troops-reportedly-advance-further-into-russian-territory. live.
  17. Web site: Ex-British Challenger 2 Tanks Roll Into Kursk As Ukraine's Invasion of Russia Grinds Into Its 11th Day. Forbes. 17 August 2024. 17 August 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240817160615/https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/16/ex-british-challenger-2-tanks-roll-into-kursk-as-ukraines-invasion-of-russia-grinds-into-its-11th-day/. live.
  18. Web site: Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ukrainian Forces Suffer Heavy Losses in Kursk Region . 11 August 2024 . 18 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240818003149/https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2024-08-11/russia-ukraine-conflict-ukrainian-forces-suffer-heavy-losses-in-kursk-region/ . live .
  19. Web site: Russia says it halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory. Evidence suggests it hasn't . 8 August 2024 . 8 August 2024 . 8 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240808235212/https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/08/europe/russia-ukrainian-incursion-intl/index.html . live .
  20. Web site: Russia begins evacuating residents from Kursk Region border areas as Ukrainian forces reportedly occupy 11 settlements. 7 August 2024. The Insider. 7 August 2024. 8 August 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240808001807/https://theins.press/en/news/273690. live.
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  22. Web site: Paratroopers show off Russia's latest T-90M "Proryv" tank captured in Kursk region . 18 August 2024 . 18 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240818152042/https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3896331-paratroopers-show-off-russias-latest-t90m-proryv-tank-captured-in-kursk-region.html . live .
  23. Web site: Ukrainian officials urge civilians to evacuate eastern city of Pokrovsk as Russian troops close in . 16 August 2024 . 16 August 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240816222727/https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-authorities-urge-civilians-evacuate-103715069.html . live .
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