2024 Dunkley by-election explained
Country: | Australia |
Type: | parliamentary |
Opinion Polls: | - Opinion polling
|
Election Date: | 2 March 2024 |
Previous Election: | 2022 Australian federal election |
Previous Year: | 2022 |
Next Election: | Next Australian federal election |
Next Year: | Next |
Seats For Election: | Division of Dunkley (Victoria) in the House of Representatives |
Party1: | Australian Labor Party |
Popular Vote1: | 37,418 |
Percentage1: | 41.1% |
Swing1: | 0.8 |
Candidate2: | Nathan Conroy |
Party2: | Liberal Party of Australia |
Popular Vote2: | 35,746 |
Percentage2: | 39.2% |
Swing2: | 6.7 |
1Blank: | TPP |
2Blank: | TPP swing |
1Data1: | 52.7% |
2Data1: | 3.6 |
1Data2: | 47.3% |
2Data2: | 3.6 |
MP |
Before Election: | Peta Murphy |
Before Party: | Australian Labor Party |
After Election: | Jodie Belyea |
After Party: | Australian Labor Party |
A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Dunkley was held on 2 March 2024, following the death of sitting member Peta Murphy in December 2023.[1] [2] [3] Jodie Belyea retained the seat for the Labor Party, winning 52.7% of the two-party preferred vote.[4]
It was the third federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament, as well as being the first federal by-election in a Labor seat since 2020 and the first federal by-election triggered by a member's death since 2015.
Background
The by-election was triggered by the death of sitting Labor member Peta Murphy, who died at 50 years old due to breast cancer. Murphy was first diagnosed with breast cancer when she was 37.
Murphy was elected as the member of Dunkley in 2019, after she unseated one-term incumbent Liberal MP Chris Crewther. At the 2022 federal election, Murphy was re-elected with an increased majority, turning it into a fairly safe seat.
The seat of Dunkley has been held by both Labor and the Liberals and has traditionally been a marginal seat. The seat has never been a safe or very safe seat and has only been a fairly safe seat (defined by the Australian Electoral Commission as a seat held by between 6 and 10 percent), twice: in 2004 (won by the Liberals with a margin of 9.38%) and in 2022 (won by Labor with a margin of 6.27%).
Since its creation in 1984, Dunkley has flipped between both major parties. It was Labor from 1984 until 1990, when the Liberals gained the seat. The seat went back to Labor in 1993 before the Liberals regained it in 1996 and held it until 2016.
While by-elections usually swing against the government, there are exceptions. At the 2023 by-election in the seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne, Labor won the seat from the Liberals, making it the first time the Government has won a seat from the Opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. However, at the 2023 by-election in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast, the Liberal National Party retained the seat with an increased majority.
Two-party-preferred vote in Dunkley, 1996–2022Election | | | | | | | | | | 2022 |
---|
width=1pt | | | | 53.36% | | 52.04% | | 55.42% | | 59.38% | | 54.04% | | 51.02% | | 55.57% | | 51.43% | 47.26% | 43.73% |
width=1pt | | | 46.64% | 47.96% | 44.58% | 40.62% | 45.96% | 48.98% | 44.43% | 48.57% | | 52.74% | | 56.27% |
Government | | L/NP | | L/NP | | L/NP | | L/NP | | ALP | | ALP | | L/NP | | L/NP | | L/NP | | ALP | |
---|
Previous election results
Murphy won the 2022 federal election with a 3.53% two-party-preferred swing towards her, and a 1.71% increase in primary vote. On the other hand, the Liberal Party had a 7.38% decrease in its primary vote. The Greens also contested the election and had a 1.95% increase in primary votes from the previous 2019 election.
Other parties and candidates that contested Dunkley at the 2022 election were United Australian Party, One Nation, Liberal Democratic Party, Animal Justice Party, Australian Federation Party and an independent candidate Darren Bergwerf, with each of them achieving less than 10% of the primary vote.[5]
Out of the Dunkley candidates in the 2022 election, only Bergwerf contested this by-election.
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[6]
- 29 January 2024 – Issue of writ
- 5 February 2024 – Close of rolls
- 8 February 2024 – Close of nominations
- 9 February 2024 – Declaration of nominations
- 19 February 2024 – Commencement of early voting
- 28 February 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
- 2 March 2024 – Polling day
- 8 May 2024 – Last day for return of writs
Candidates
Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.[7]
Labor
Rod Glover, Peta Murphy's husband, was asked by "senior figures and local branch members" to run as Labor's candidate. Additionally, it was speculated in the media that former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews was a possible contender, however neither of these eventuated.[20] [21] On 11 January 2024, Jodie Belyea was announced as Labor's candidate.[22]
Liberal
Three candidates ran for Liberal Party preselection − Frankston mayor and councillor Nathan Conroy, former Victorian MP Donna Hope and former Liberal candidate Bec Buchanan. A fourth candidate, David Burgess, withdrew from the race.[23] Conroy won preselection on 14 January 2024.[24]
Preselection results
Opinion polling
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Primary vote | 2PP vote |
---|
style=background:#f66 | ALP | style=background:#00bfff | LIB | style=background:#90ee90 | GRN | style=background:#DCDCDC | IND | style=background:#FCCD53 | LBT | style=background:maroon | AJP | style=background:#F7CF46 | DEM | style=background:black | VS | style=background:gray | OTH | style=background:#f66 | ALP | style=background:#00bfff | LIB |
---|
style=text-align:center data-sort-value=21-May-2022 | 2 March 2024 | By-election | 41.0% | 38.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | N/A | 52.7% | 47.3% |
15–22 February 2024 | YouGov[25] | 394 | ± 6.1% | 33% | 40% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | N/A | 49% | style=background:#00bfff | 51% |
---|
5–6 February 2024 | uComms | 626 | ± 3.9% | 40.1% | 39.3% | 8.2% | N/A | 1.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 10.8% | style=background:#f66 | 52% | 48% |
---|
style=text-align:center data-sort-value=21-May-2022 | 21 May 2022 | Election | 40.2% | 32.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | 14.8% | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
Advocacy
The by-election saw conservative activist group Advance unsuccessfully spend nearly $300,000 to unseat Labor, with its advertising described as 'Trumpian' and a 'fear campaign' by Labor MP Paul Edbrooke.[26] [27] [28] [29]
See also
Notes and References
- Web site: Crowe . David . 2024-01-18 . Dunkley byelection called for Saturday March 2 . 2024-01-18 . The Sydney Morning Herald . en . 2024-01-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240118220839/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dunkley-byelection-called-for-saturday-march-2-20240119-p5eyjc.html . live .
- Web site: By-election to be held in Dunkley after tragic passing of Labor MP Peta Murphy. 4 December 2023. 4 December 2023. Sky News. 4 December 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231204034059/https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/byelection-to-be-held-in-dunkley-after-tragic-passing-of-labor-mp-peta-murphy/video/98993544dadbdbc32619742d14c36bd4. live.
- News: Anthony Albanese in tears after Labor MP Peta Murphy's shock death. News.com.au. 4 December 2023. 4 December 2023. 4 December 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231204032334/https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/anthony-albanese-in-tears-after-labor-mp-peta-murphys-shock-death/news-story/e8f75560e0ebdf9295201b4e7396e7b5. live.
- Web site: Dunkley, VIC. Australian Electoral Commission.
- https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-210.htm Dunkley, VIC
- Web site: 2024 Dunkley by-election. aec.gov.au. 2024-02-21. 2024-02-14. https://web.archive.org/web/20240214154544/https://www.aec.gov.au/dunkley/. live.
- Web site: Dunkley By-election 2024 Results. Green. Antony. Antony Green. 9 February 2024. 9 February 2024. ABC News. 6 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240206064306/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024. live.
- Web site: Nathan Conroy . 2024-02-06 . vic.liberal.org.au . 2024-01-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240119182154/https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/nathan-conroy . live .
- Web site: Bronwyn Currie - #1 Senate Candidate. Animal Justice Party. 2022. 9 February 2024. 31 August 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220831102627/https://vic.animaljusticeparty.org/bronwyn_currie_for_senate. live.
- Web site: Chrysten Abraham. Libertarian Party of Australia. 6 February 2024. 2024. 6 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240206044655/https://www.libertarians.org.au/dunkley. live.
- Web site: Chrysten Abraham. 2022. February 6, 2024. February 6, 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240206044655/https://womensagenda.com.au/female-candidate/chrysten-abraham/. live.
- Web site: About Reem. Victorian Socialists. 6 February 2024. 6 February 2024. 6 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240206044119/https://victoriansocialists.org.au/campaigns/dunkley/about-reem. live.
- Web site: Green . Antony . Analyst . ABC Chief Election . Dunkley By-election 2024 Results . 2024-02-06 . abc.net.au . en-AU . 2024-02-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240206064306/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunkley-by-election-2024 . live .
- Web site: Darren Bergwerf Vote darren4dunkley Vote The Major Parties Last Frankston . 2024-02-06 . Darren4Dunkley . en . 2024-02-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240206064307/https://www.darren4dunkley.com/ . live .
- Web site: Alex Breskin: Your Greens Candidate for Dunkley. 8 February 2024. 8 February 2024. Australian Greens. 8 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240208104817/https://greens.org.au/vic/person/alex-breskin-0. live.
- Web site: Breskin, Alex. Vote Climate One. 2022. 8 February 2024. 8 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240208105017/https://voteclimateone.org.au/candidate/breskin-alex/. live.
- Web site: Heath McKenzie contests Dunkley. Australian Democrats. 8 February 2024. 8 February 2024. 8 February 2024. https://web.archive.org/web/20240208110214/https://www.democrats.org.au/heath-mckenzie-contests-dunkley/. live.
- Web site: Fusion Backs Heath McKenzie for Dunkley By-Election . Fusion Party . 2024-02-27 . 2024-02-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240227002518/https://www.fusionparty.org.au/fusion_backs_heath_mckenzie_for_dunkley_by_election . live .
- News: Evans . Jake . 2024-01-10 . Labor names candidate for looming Dunkley, Victoria by-election . 2024-01-11 . . . en-AU . 2024-01-10 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240110235303/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/dunkley-by-election-candidate-labor-named-jodie-belyea/103308732 . live .
- Web site: Late Labor MP's husband urged to run in key byelection for Albanese and Dutton . 29 December 2023 . Sydney Morning Herald . 2024-01-14 . 2024-01-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240114120149/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/late-labor-mp-s-husband-urged-to-run-in-key-byelection-for-albanese-and-dutton-20231229-p5eu5y.html . live .
- Web site: Dan Andrews for federal Parliament? Rumours fly as Dunkley reels from death of MP Peta Murphy . 18 December 2023 . Crikey . 2024-01-14 . 2024-01-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240114120149/https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/12/18/dan-andrews-dunkley-peta-murphy/ . live .
- News: Jodie Belyea named candidate for Dunkley, Victoria by-election after death of Peta Murphy . ABC News . 10 January 2024 . 2024-01-11 . 2024-01-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240111015245/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/dunkley-by-election-candidate-labor-named-jodie-belyea/103308732 . live .
- Web site: Make-or-break moment for Dutton as Liberals select Dunkley challenger . 12 January 2024 . Crikey . 2024-01-14 . 2024-01-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240114021337/https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/01/12/peter-dutton-liberals-dunkley-byelection/ . live .
- Web site: FINAL VOTE . Twitter . . 2024-01-14 . 2024-01-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240114021336/https://twitter.com/Leo_Puglisi6/status/1746353429923103200 . live .
- Web site: Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 80-20 in upcoming by-election YouGov . 2024-02-27 . au.yougov.com . en-au.
- News: Butler . Josh . 2024-02-22 . Rightwing political group Advance mounts 'unprecedented' campaign against Labor in Dunkley . 2024-02-27 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077 . 2024-02-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240226052613/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/23/rightwing-political-group-advance-mounts-unprecedented-campaign-against-labor-in-dunkley . live .
- Web site: McIlroy . Tom . McCubbing . Gus . 22 February 2024 . Voters carpet-bombed in the fight for Dunkley . 27 February 2024 . Australian Financial Review . en-AU . 26 February 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240226052614/https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-carpet-bombed-in-the-fight-for-dunkley-20240222-p5f72a . live .
- Web site: Liberals distance themselves from right-wing group's 'rapists, murderers' scare campaign .
- Web site: Albanese will be hoping for a win in the Dunkley by-election. But Advance is back as audacious as ever, fighting with fear and 'Trumpy' tropes - ABC News .