2024 Central Java gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2024 Central Java gubernatorial election
Country:Indonesia
Flag Image:Coat of arms of Central Java.svg
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 Central Java gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2018
Governor
Before Election:Nana Sudjana (Acting)
Before Party:Independent

The 2024 Central Java gubernatorial election will be held on 27 November 2024 as part of nationwide local elections to elect the Governor of Central Java for a five-year term.

Electoral system

The election, like other local elections in 2024, follow the first-past-the-post system where the candidate with the most votes wins the election, even if they do not win a majority.[1] It is possible for a candidate to run uncontested, in which case the candidate is still required to win a majority of votes "against" an "empty box" option. Should the candidate fail to do so, the election will be repeated on a later date.[2]

Candidates

According to electoral regulations, in order to qualify for the election, candidates are required to secure support from 24 seats in the Central Java Regional House of Representatives (DPRD). The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, with 33 seats, is the only political party eligible to nominate a candidate without forming a coalition.[3] Candidates may alternatively demonstrate support in form of photocopies of identity cards, which in Central Java's case corresponds to 1.84 million copies. No independent candidates registered with the General Elections Commission for the gubernatorial election.[4]

The previous governor, Ganjar Pranowo, had served for two full terms and is therefore ineligible to run in the election.[5] [6]

Declared

Candidate from Golkar, Gerindra, PAN, and PSI
for Governorfor Vice Governor
Inspector General of the Ministry of Trade (2024–present)
Head of Central Java Police (2020–2024)
Parties

Golkar (17 seats)
Gerindra (17 seats)
PAN (4 seats)
PSI (2 seats)
The chief of the provincial police, Ahmad Luthfi, declared his willingness to run as a gubernatorial candidate in late June 2024.[7] By 25 July 2024, four political parties: Golkar, Gerindra, PAN, and PSI, had announced their endorsement of Luthfi.[8] He was assigned as Inspector General in the Ministry of Trade in late July 2024, after receiving the endorsements.[9]

Potential

The following are individuals who have either been publicly mentioned as a potential candidate, or considered as such by press:

Declined

The following are individuals mentioned as potential candidate, but publicly declared not to run or to run for another elected office:

Political map

Following the 2024 Indonesian general election, ten political parties are represented in the Central Java Regional House of Representatives:[21]

<-- Insert DPRD SVG here -->
Political partiesSeat count
bgcolor=Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)
bgcolor=National Awakening Party (PKB)
bgcolor=Party of Functional Groups (Golkar)
bgcolor=Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)
bgcolor=Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)
bgcolor=Democratic Party (Demokrat)
bgcolor=United Development Party (PPP)
bgcolor=National Mandate Party (PAN)
bgcolor=
bgcolor=Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI)

Opinion polls

Pre-election polls

Poll sourceDateSample sizeOthersLeadError margin
Kaesang PangarepAhmad LuthfiSudaryonoBambang PaculHendrar PrihadiDico GanindutoTaj Yasin MaimoenGanjar Pranowo
Lembaga Survei Indonesia[22] 21 - 26 June 20241,2002.5% 5.2% <-- Luthfi -->2.1% 1.8% - <-- Hendi -->1.7% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 2.7%+/- 2.8%
15.9% <-- Kaesang -->12.9% 4.7% 5.8% 4.7% 3.5% 2.7% - <-- Ganjar -->18.0% 3.0%
25.6% <-- Kaesang -->16.1% 6.0% 9.7% - <-- Hendi -->- <-- Dico -->13.4% - <-- Ganjar -->6.2% 9.5%
Parameter Politik Indonesia[23] 15 - 21 May 20248002.3% 1.8% - <-- Sudaryono -->2.0% 7.7% 7.1% 10.9% <-- Yasin -->1.4% 9.4% 2.7%3.5%

Notes and References

  1. News: Pilkada Hanya Satu Putaran . 20 May 2024 . kedaikopi.co . 22 July 2020 . id.
  2. News: Mardika . Nando Yussele . Jika Kotak Kosong Menang, Pilkada Akan Diulang? . 16 April 2024 . hukumonline.com . 5 November 2020 . id.
  3. News: Gitiyarko . Vincentius . PDI-P Pertahankan Jateng sebagai ”Kandang Banteng” . 17 May 2024 . . 22 March 2024 . id.
  4. News: Ditutup! KPU Pastikan Tak Ada Calon Perorangan Mendaftar untuk Pilgub Jateng . 17 May 2024 . Solo Pos . 13 May 2024 . id.
  5. News: Ganjar Serahkan Cagub Jateng ke PDIP . 17 May 2024 . Rmol.id . 10 May 2024 . id.
  6. Web site: Pemerintah Tegaskan Masa Jabatan Kepala Daerah Hanya Dua Periode . Constitutional Court of Indonesia . 17 May 2024 . id . 6 October 2020.
  7. News: Irjen Pol Ahmad Luthfi Siap Mundur Jika Diusung Jadi Cagub Jateng . 30 July 2024 . Metro TV News . 24 June 2024 . id.
  8. News: 4 Partai Sepakat Dukung Ahmad Luthfi pada Pilkada Jateng, Deklarasi Agustus . 30 July 2024 . KOMPAS.com . 25 July 2024 . id.
  9. News: Kapolda Jateng Irjen Ahmad Luthfi Dimutasi ke Kemendag . 30 July 2024 . KOMPAS.com . 27 July 2024 . id.
  10. News: Profil Bambang Pacul, Politisi Senior PDIP yang Dinilai Layak Jadi Calon Gubernur Jateng . 17 May 2024 . Tribunnews.com . 17 May 2024 . id-ID.
  11. Web site: Survei Cagub Jateng 2024, Elektabilitas Taj Yasin Tertinggi . 2024-06-10 . KOMPAS.tv . id.
  12. Web site: Media . Kompas Cyber . 2024-07-29 . Potensi Adu Kuat Andika Perkasa Vs Ahmad Luthfi di Pilkada Jateng, Golkar: Enggak Masalah . 2024-08-01 . KOMPAS.com . id.
  13. News: Rahmawati . Dwi . NasDem Pastikan Dukung Penuh Kaesang Jika Maju di Pilgub Jateng . 22 July 2024 . detiknews . 22 July 2024 . id-ID.
  14. News: Purbaya . Angling Adhitya . Sekjen PPP: Gus Yasin Paling Potensial Jadi Cagub Jateng 2024 . 17 May 2024 . detikjateng . 28 January 2023 . id-ID.
  15. News: Purbaya . Angling Adhitya . Alasan PKB Pede Usung Gus Yusuf Jadi Calon Gubernur Jateng . 17 May 2024 . detikjateng . 17 May 2024 . id-ID.
  16. Web site: Hutajulu . Matius Alfons . Survei Cagub Jateng Versi PPI: Gibran Teratas, Muncul Nama Sri Mulyani . 2024-06-10 . detiknews . id-ID.
  17. Web site: Saputra . Imam Yuda . December 12, 2023 . Ini Deretan Tokoh yang Masuk Bursa Cagub Jateng 2024 . June 10, 2024 . Solopos.
  18. Web site: Akbar . Adrial . Resmi! Prabowo Umumkan Gibran Cawapres 2024 . 2024-06-10 . detiknews . id-ID.
  19. Web site: Pamungkas . Satria S. . Prestasi Dico Ganinduto, Bupati Kendal yang Didukung Maju Pilwalkot Semarang Setelah Batal Nyagub Jateng - Pantura Post . 2024-08-01 . Prestasi Dico Ganinduto, Bupati Kendal yang Didukung Maju Pilwalkot Semarang Setelah Batal Nyagub Jateng - Pantura Post . id.
  20. Web site: Hamdi . Imam . 2024-07-18 . Sudaryono Batal Maju Pilgub Jateng, Golkar: Peta Politik Berubah . 2024-08-01 . Tempo . en.
  21. News: Cek! Ini Daftar Lengkap 120 Caleg Lolos DPRD Jateng pada Pemilu 2024 . 17 May 2024 . Solo Pos . 22 March 2024 . id.
  22. News: 2024-06-30 . Survei LSI Pilgub Jateng: Ahmad Luthfi 5,2%, Kaesang 2,5%, Sudaryono 2,1% . id . 3 July 2024 .
  23. News: 2024-05-29 . Survei Pilkada Jateng Versi PPI: Taj Yasin 10,9 Persen, Hendi 7,7 Persen, Dico 7,1 Persen . id . 3 July 2024 .