| Election Name: | 2024 California's 45th congressional district election |
| Country: | California |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 45 |
| Previous Year: | 2022 |
| Next Election: | 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 45 |
| Next Year: | 2026 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | 3x4.svg |
| Candidate1: | Derek Tran |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 158,264 |
| Percentage1: | 50.1% |
| Candidate2: | Michelle Steel |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 157,611 |
| Percentage2: | 49.9% |
| U.S. Representative | |
| Before Election: | Michelle Steel |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Derek Tran |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Reporting: | 99 |
| Last Update: | Dec. 3, 5:00 PM |
| Time Zone: | PST |
The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.
Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda.[1] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[2]
The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.
The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[3] [4] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election.[5] Steel is one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[6] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[7]
Tran narrowly unseated Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle.[8] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after Election Night.
| Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Michelle Steel (R) | $8,971,455 | $5,675,115 | $3,752,876 | |
| Cheyenne Hunt (D) | $389,534 | $254,544 | $134,990 | |
| Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) | $359,909 | $357,405 | $2,503 | |
| Aditya Pai (D) | $304,926 | $276,752 | $10,396 | |
| Derek Tran (D) | $4,380,401 | $3,423,836 | $956,564 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[16] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Cheyenne Hunt (D) | Kim Nguyen- Penaloza (D) | Aditya Pai (D) | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research | November 14–19, 2023 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 28% | – | 9% | 47% | |||
| Tulchin Research | November 13–19, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 39% | 11% | – | 32% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[17] | September 6, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Inside Elections[18] | October 18, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | Elections Daily[20] | November 4, 2024 | ||
| align=left | CNalysis[21] | November 4, 2024 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Michelle Steel (R) | Derek Tran (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts (D) | October 13-15, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
| American Viewpoint (R) | October 8-10, 2024 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | ||
| USC/CSU | September 14–21, 2024 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 5% | ||
| Tulchin Research (D) | September 14–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% | ||
| Normington Petts (D) | July 29–31, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 6% | ||
| Tulchin Research | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |